Canadian Economic Association
Annual 29th Annual Meeting
2-4 JUNE 1995
PRELIMINARY PROGRAMME


PROGRAMME PRÉLIMINAIRE
2, 3 ET 4 JUIN 1995
29ème Congrès annuel de
l'Association canadienne d'économique


WHAT'S NEW THIS YEAR? / QUOI DE NEUF CETTE ANNÉE?

The 1995 programme reflects the maturity and the diversity of the economics discipline in Canada. We want the annual meetings to remain wide and open to members of our Association. This year, there are 130 sessions and 350 papers presented in the usual three days, in sharp expansion from the 180 papers of only five years ago. This means that the time allocated to most individual presentations and sessions has to be severely limited. After some consultations with members, we have decided to cut down the number of formal discussants to one or even zero in most sessions. This is in the interest of providing breathing space and of saving and fostering exchanges with the audience. In other words, this year the sessions are to be run more like seminars than like one-sided discussions between authors and discussants. The valuable Canadian research seminars (e.g. in macroeconomics, labour economics, public economics, economic theory, econometrics, and resources and environment) that have emerged in recent years are thus increasingly taking over the function of formal discussion previously devoted to the annual general meetings. Only practice will tell whether this is sound division of labour. We invite all participants to make their views on this year's format of the annual meetings known to members of the Executive Council of the Association, and particularly to the programme chair of 1996, Robin Boadway.
 
Le programme du congrès de 1995 témoigne de la maturité et de la diversité maintenant acquises par la science économique au Canada. Nous désirons que le congrès continue de d'être ouvert à l'ensemble des membres de notre association. Cette année, les trois jours habituels comprennent 130 séances et 350 communications, ce qui constitue une forte progression par rapport aux 180 communications d'il y a cinq ans seulement. Cela signifie toutefois que le temps imparti à la plupart des séances et des communications doit être rigoureusement limité. Après consultation des membres, nous avons décidé de réduire le nombre de commentateurs formels à un seul ou même de n'en désigner aucun dans la plupart des séances. Cela donnera du temps pour respirer et, surtout, pour préserver et stimuler les échanges avec l'auditoire. En d'autres mots, les séances de cette année ressembleront plus à des séminaires qu'à des échanges unilatéraux entre auteurs et commentateurs. Les séminaires canadiens de recherche (par ex. en macroéconomie, en économie du travail, en économie publique, en théorie économique, en économétrie et en ressources et environnement) qui ont pris leur essor au cours des dernières années remplissent de plus en plus la fonction critique formelle autrefois dévolue au congrès annuel. Seule l'expérience et la pratique diront si cette division du travail est bénéfique. Nous invitons tous les participants à faire connaître leur point de vue sur la forme du congrès de cette année aux membres du Conseil de direction de l'association, tout particulièrement au responsable du programme de 1996, Robin Boadway.

WHERE TO GO? / OÙ SE RENDRE?

Unless otherwise indicated, all sessions are held in the Pavillon des sciences de la gestion (Management Science Building) of UQAM at:
 
    315 Sainte Catherine East
 
All rooms in this building begin with an R, followed by the floor level: M (metro level), R (ground floor), 1, 2, etc. Some activities are scheduled to take place in other nearby buildings: Jasmin (J), David (D), Aquin (A), or Education (N).
 
À moins d'indication contraire, toutes les séances du congrès ont lieu au Pavillon des sciences de la gestion de l'UQAM situé au:
 
    315 est, rue Sainte-Catherine
 
Toutes les salles de ce pavillon commencent par la lettre R, suivie du niveau: M (niveau métro), R (rez-de-chaussée), 1, 2, etc. Certaines activités ont lieu tout près, aux Pavillons Jasmin (J), David (D), Aquin (A) ou de l'éducation (N).

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                THURSDAY JUNE 1 / JEUDI 1er JUIN



15h-18h     EXECUTIVE COUNCIL MEETING / RÉUNION DU CONSEIL DE
            DIRECTION
R-5460
           For Council members / Pour les membres du Conseil


18h30       PAST PRESIDENTS' DINNER / DÎNER DES ANCIENS PRÉSIDENTS
Hôtel des
Gouverneurs
            18h30        Cocktails / Réception

            19h          Dinner / Dîner

     For past presidents and Executive Council members / Pour les
     anciens présidents et les membres du Conseil de direction


---------------------------------------------------------------------

                 FRIDAY JUNE 2 / VENDREDI 2 JUIN



8h15-10h15  NAFTA / L'ALÉNA
R-M150
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Ronald Wonnacott (Western Ontario)

            On the Design and Evaluation of Regional Trade
            Agreements
               Ronald Wonnacott (Western Ontario)

            Conflits dans l'application du code anti-dumping et
            usage de modèles économiques
               Benoît-Mario Papillon (UQTR)

            Data Construction to Compare the Structure of
            Production in Canadian and U.S. Manufacturing
            Industries: Measurement and Analysis after NAFTA
               John Norsworthy (Rensselaer Polytechnic), Catherine
               Morrison (Tufts) et Diana Tsai (Concordia)

            Competition and Trade Policy Interface: Abuse of
            Dominant Position
               Prakash Sharma (Foreign Affairs and International
               Trade Canada)

            DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
               Michael Hart (Foreign Affairs and International
               Trade Canada)
               Roma Dauphin (Sherbrooke)



8h30-10h    THEORY OF MARKETS I / THÉORIE DES MARCHÉS I
R-R160
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Ken Hendricks (British Columbia)

            The Evolution of Communication
               Jasmina Arifovic et Curtis Eaton (Simon Fraser)

            An Economic Analysis of Moral Conventions
               Louis Corriveau (Ottawa)

            On Costs of Bargaining and the Characteristics of a
            Market
               Robert Cairns (McGill)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Patrick Gonzalez (Montréal)


8h30-10h    FOREIGN AID / AIDE EXTÉRIEURE
R-2930
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Jean-Louis Arcand (Montréal)

            A Model of Tied and Untied Foreign Aid
               Mak Arvin (Trent) et Christopher Baum (Boston
               College)

            Externalities of Foreign Aid on the Private Sector:
            Evidence from Afro-Asian Countries
               Muhammed Nurul Islam (Concordia)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Talan Iscan (Dalhousie)


8h30-10h    STATISTICAL INFERENCE I / INFÉRENCE STATISTIQUE I
R-R140
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               James MacKinnon (Queen's)

            Constrained Quasi-Likelihood Estimation and Projection
               Gordon Fisher (Concordia)

            The Second-Order Bias and Mean Squared Error of
            Nonlinear Estimators
               Paul Rilstone (Laval), V.K. Srivastava (Lucknow) et
               Aman Ullah (California at Riverside)

            Finite Sample Inference Methods in Seemingly Unrelated
            Regressions and Simultaneous Equations
               Jean-Marie Dufour et Linda Khalaf (Montréal)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Éric Ghysels (Montréal)


8h30-10h    PRODUCTIVITY AND FACTOR DEMAND / PRODUCTIVITÉ ET
            DEMANDE DE FACTEURS DE PRODUCTION
R-2840
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Pierre Ouellette (Québec à Montréal)

            Piece Rates and Worker Productivity: Statistical
            Evidence from the Tree Planting Industry
               Harry Paarsch (Western Ontario) et Bruce Shearer
               (Laval)

            Real Wages and Labour Productivity in Canada: A
            Cointegration Analysis
               Doug Hostland (Human Resources Development Canada)

            Using Mixtures of Functional Forms to Estimate Factor
            Demand Elasticities
               Stephen Gordon (Laval)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Robert Amano (Bank of Canada)


8h30-10h    UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE I / ASSURANCE-CHÔMAGE I
R-1880
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Miles Corak (Statistics Canada)

            Jobs Excluded from the UI System in Canada: Evidence,
            Determinants and Impacts of Coverage Extension
               Zhengxi Lin (Statistics Canada)

            Impacts of Changes in UI Contributions and Maximum
            Insurable Earnings: A General Equilibrium Model
               Émile Allie (Human Resources Development Canada)

            The Static Efficiency Effects of the Non Experience-
            Rated Characteristics of the Canadian UI System
               Louis Beauséjour, Munir Sheikh et Baxter Williams
               (Finance Canada)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Michael Shannon (Lakehead)


8h30-10h    RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE / ÉQUIVALENCE RICARDIENNE
R-R110
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               David Johnson (Wilfrid Laurier)

            Private Information, Government Deficits, and
            Ricardian Equivalence
               Daniel Richards (Tufts)

            Are Consumers Ricardian When Some Are Liquidity
            Constrained? Evidence for the United States
               Duane Rockerbie (Lethbridge)

            Ricardian Equivalence and the Ricardian Vice
               Nancy Churchman (Windsor)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Michel Normandin (Québec à Montréal)


8h30-10h    ECONOMIC FORECASTING / PRÉVISION ÉCONOMIQUE
R-1190
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Michael McCracken (Informetrica)

            Who Forecasts Best in the Private Sector?
               Bryan Campbell (Concordia) et Steve Murphy
               (Toronto)


            Improved Composite Indexes of Leading Indicators to
            Signal Turning Points in G7 Business Cycles
               Vincent Lépine et Robert Lamy (Finance Canada)

            Un indicateur synthétique avancé de l'économie
            canadienne selon la méthode de Stock et Watson
               Luc Bergeron, Yvon Fauvel et Alain Paquet (Québec à
               Montréal)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Jacques Raynauld (Hautes Études Commerciales)


8h30-10h    AIRLINE INDUSTRY / INDUSTRIE DU TRANSPORT AÉRIEN
R-1885
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Michel Patry (Hautes Études Commerciales)

            Bankruptcy Protection and Pricing Strategies in the
            U.S. Airline Industry
               Philippe Barla (Laval) et Bonchun Koo (Cornell)

            Airline Capacity and Capital Structure
               Tae Oum (British Columbia), Anming Zhang (Victoria)
               et Yimin Zhang (New Brunswick)

            Debt, Moral Hazard and Airline Safety: An Empirical
            Evidence
               Georges Dionne, Robert Gagné, François Gagnon et
               Charles Vanasse (Montréal)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Patrick Petit (Québec à Montréal)            


8h30-10h    HOUSING MARKET / MARCHÉ DU LOGEMENT
R-1860
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Sam Bucovetsky (York)

            Determinants of Buyer Search in a Housing Market
               Paul Anglin (Windsor)

            The Impact on the Urban Environment of Incomplete
            Property Rights
               Michael Hoy (Guelph) et Emmanuel Jimenez (World
               Bank)

            Econometric Methods in Fair Lending
               Marsha Courchane et William Lang (Office of the
               Comptroller of the Currency, Washington)

            A Stock-Flow Approach to Housing Market Equilibrium
            Analysis: Theory and Evidence
               Ho-Cheung Ho (Toronto)


8h30-10h    CORPORATE FINANCE / FINANCE CORPORATIVE
R-1170
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Robert Vigfusson (Bank of Canada)

            Evidence on Corporate Private Debt Finance and the
            Term Structure of Interest Rates
               Camille Bronsard (Montréal), F. Rosenwald (INSEE)
               et Lise Salvas-Bronsard (Montréal)

            An Analysis of Venture Capital Contracts
               Baogui Wang (Toronto)

            An Empirical Estimation of the Profit Maximization
            Hypothesis: The Case of Canadian International Banking
               Jixin Xu (Malaspina)


8h30-10h    MANAGING THE COMMONS / GESTION DE LA PROPRIÉTÉ COMMUNE
R-2680
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Pierre Lasserre (Québec à Montréal)

            Institutional Dynamics and the Regulation of Fisheries
               Melvin Cross (Queen's), Leigh Mazany (Dalhousie) et
               Anthony Charles (Saint Mary's)

            The Effect of Jurisdictional Uncertainty on
            Environmental Quality Management
               Patricia Koss (Guelph)

            Privatising the Commons: Changes in Efficiency with
            Transferable Property Rights
               Quentin Grafton (Ottawa)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Nguyen Manh Hung (Laval)           


9h30-11h30  CEA / IRPP PANEL: THE FISCAL FUTURE OF CITY-REGIONS /
            AVENIR FISCAL DES RÉGIONS MÉTROPOLITAINES
R-R130
            CHAIR / CO-PRÉSIDENTS:
               France Saint-Hilaire (Institute for Research on
               Public Policy) et Paul Hobson (Acadia)

            Finance and Governance: The Case of the Greater
            Toronto Area
               Enid Slack (Enid Slack Consulting)

            Financing Municipal Infrastructure in Canada's City-
            Regions
               Almos Tassonyi (Ontario Ministry of Municipal
               Affairs)

            Pricing Local Government Services
               Harry Kitchen (Trent)

            Taxation and Expenditure Patterns in Major City-
            Regions: An International Perspective and Lessons for
            Canada
               Mel McMillan (Alberta)


10h20-11h50 CEA / CABE PANEL: THE FUTURE ROLE OF BUSINESS
            ECONOMISTS / L'AVENIR DE L'ÉCONOMISTE PROFESSIONNEL
R-M150
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Angela Tu Weissenberger (Royal Bank of Canada)

            The Influence of Economists in Organizations
               Roger Belland (Alberta Power) et Vinay Bhardwaj
               (Canadian Utilities)

            Educating Economists for Noneconomic Jobs
               John Hoicka (Ontario Treasury)

            OTHER PANELISTS / AUTRES PARTICIPANTS:
               Dale Orr (Consulting Economist)
               Carl Beigie (Canadian Foundation for Economic
               Education)


10H20-11H50 PANEL: ECONOMIC AND FISCAL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST TEN
            YEARS / LA PRÉVISION ÉCONOMIQUE ET FISCALE DANS LA
            DERNIÈRE DÉCENNIE
R-1190
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Catherine Harris (Investment Executive)

            PANELISTS / PANÉLISTES:
               Rick Egelton (Finance Canada)
               Leo de Bever (Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board)
               Thomas Wilson (Toronto)
               Mervin Daub (Queen's)


10h20-12h15 PUBLIC GOODS / BIENS PUBLICS
R-R160
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Peter Townley (Acadia)

            The Public Good Aspect of Quality in Excludable Non-
            Rival Goods
               Michael Krashinsky (Toronto)

            Homogeneity and the Voluntary Provision of Public
            Goods
               Kenneth Chan et Stuart Mestelman (McMaster)

            Profitable Nonprofit Firms
               Marc Bilodeau (Sherbrooke) et Al Slivinski (Western
               Ontario)

            Voluntary Contributions to Group Goods: Generosity or
            Attempted Cooperation?
               Robert Moir (McMaster)


10h20-11h50 CEA / CWEN: CHILD CARE / GARDE DES ENFANTS
R-1170
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Victoria Barham (Ottawa)

            The Impact of Child Care Costs on Female Labour Supply
            and the Choice of Care: Evidence from Canada
               Lisa Powell (Queen's)

            L'effet des politiques de financement des services de
            garde sur le choix des modalités de garde des familles
            québécoises
               Francine Mayer, Diane Richard et Ruth Rose (Québec
               à Montréal)

            Child Care and Work Decisions of Lone Parent Mothers
               Gordon Cleveland et Doug Hyatt (Toronto)


10h20-11h50 R&D AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH / R-D ET CROISSANCE ENDOGÈNE
R-R110
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Julian Betts (California at San Diego)

            Innovative vs. Imitative R&D and Economic Growth
               Jing Zeng (Western Ontario)

            R&D, Interindustry and International Spillovers of
            Technology, and the Total Factor Productivity Growth
            of Manufacturing Industries in Canada, 1974-1989
               Petr Hanel (Sherbrooke)

            Endogenous Growth and Sectoral Composition of
            Production
               Shamika Sirimanne (Carleton)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Arun Mukhopadhyay (Saint Mary's)


10h20-12h15 EMISSION PERMITS / PERMIS D'ÉMISSION
R-1880
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               John Livernois (Guelph)

            Is Emission Permits Trading Superior to Command and
            Control Instrument?
               Nguyen Manh Hung (Laval) et Eftichios Sartzetakis
               (British Columbia)

            Simulated Emissions Trading Markets
               Charles Mallory (Consulting and Audits Canada) et
               Elizabeth Wilman (Calgary)

            Strategic Manipulation of Pollution Permit Markets: An
            Experimental Approach
               Jamie Brown-Kruse (Colorado at Boulder), Steven
               Elliott (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) and Robert
               Godby (McMaster)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Quentin Grafton (Ottawa)
               


10h20-11h50 FINANCIAL MARKETS I / MARCHÉS FINANCIERS I
R-2930
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Pascal Saint-Amour (Laval)

            Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists
               Robert Vigfusson (Bank of Canada)

            GARCH and Markov Hedging at the Winnipeg Commodity
            Exchange
               Peter Sephton (New Brunswick)

            The Integration of International Equity Markets: An
            Empirical Study
               Amanda Lu (Carleton)


10h20-11h50 REGIONAL TRADE AND GROWTH / COMMERCE INTERRÉGIONAL ET
            CROISSANCE
R-R140

            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Tim Hazledine (Auckland, New Zealand)

            Long-run Regional Growth and Economic Convergence in
            Canada
               Serge Coulombe (Ottawa) et Frank Lee (Industry
               Canada)

            Do National Borders Matter for Quebec's Trade?
               John Helliwell (British Columbia)

            Economic Interdependence Underlying Interprovincial
            Trade in Canada
               Sundar Magum (Carleton) et Hans Messinger
               (Statistics Canada)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Manfred Keil (Northeastern, Boston)


10h20-11h50 ECONOMIC HISTORY / HISTOIRE ÉCONOMIQUE
R-1860
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Fazley Siddiq (Dalhousie)

            The Clear-cutting of the Forest of the Lower Fraser
            Basin, 1900-1940
               Ronald Shearer et John Sproul (British Columbia)

            Employment Duration at the Ford Motor Company, 1917-
            1943
               Warren Whatley (Michigan) et Stanley Sedo (New
               Hampshire)

            The Wealth of the Irish in 19th Century Ontario
               Livio Di Matteo (Lakehead)


10h20-11h50 EXCHANGE RATE MODELS / MODÉLISATION DES TAUX DE CHANGE
R-2680
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Victoria Miller (Québec à Montréal)

            An Extended Model of Expected Devaluations in the ERM
               Christos Paraskevopoulos (York)

            The Monetary Exchange Rate Model under the Null
            Hypothesis of Cointegration
               David Cushman (Saskatchewan)

            European Exchange Rates and the Target Zone Model
               Patrick Crowley (Saint Mary's)


10h20-11h50 ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY / INDUSTRIE DE L'ÉLECTRICITÉR-2840
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Christopher Green (McGill)

            The Regressivity of Marginal Cost Pricing of
            Electricity
               Jean-Thomas Bernard et Éric Genest-Laplante (Laval)

            The Role of Wind Energy in a Predominantly Electric
            Grid: An Application to Hydro Québec
               Sylvie Marceau (Laval)

            Electricity Prices and Elections in Québec
               Jean-Thomas Bernard, Stephen Gordon et Josée
               Tremblay (Laval)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Robert Cairns (McGill)


10h20-11h50 MEASUREMENT OF PRODUCTIVITY / MESURE DE LA
            PRODUCTIVITÉR-1885
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               David Andolfatto (Simon Fraser)

            Mesure de la croissance de la productivité dans un
            cadre d'équilibre général: l'économie du Québec entre
            1978 et 1984
               Pierre Mohnen (Québec à Montréal)

            Issues on the Measurement of the Solow Residual and
            the Testing of its Exogeneity: A Tale of Two Countries
               Alain Paquet (Québec à Montréal) et Benoît Robidoux
               (Finance Canada)

            Inferring Technological Parameters from Incomplete
            Panel Data
               Georges Dionne (Montréal), Robert Gagné (Hautes
               Études Commerciales) et Charles Vanasse (Montréal)


12h-13h30   EDITORIAL BOARD LUNCHEON OF CANADIAN PUBLIC POLICY /
            DÉJEUNER DU COMITÉ DE RÉDACTION D'ANALYSE DE
            POLITIQUES
N-8510
         For Board members / Pour les membres du Comité

12h-13h30   LUNCHEON OF THE CANADIAN WOMEN ECONOMISTS NETWORK
            (CWEN)/ DÉJEUNER DU RÉSEAU CANADIEN DES FEMMES
            ÉCONOMISTES
A-R415
            Reasonable price. Number of places limited to 30.

            Prix modeste. Pas plus que 30 places disponibles.


13h30-15h   SOCIAL CHOICE AND AUCTIONS / CHOIX SOCIAUX ET ENCHÈRES
R-2930
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Curtis Eaton (Simon Fraser)

            A Borda Measure for Social Choice Functions
               Michel LeBreton (Aix-Marseille) et Michel Truchon
               (Laval)

            Paternalism and the Credibility Problem in a Centrally
            Planned Economy
               Ruvin Gekker (York)

            Sequential, Oral, Ascending-price, Open-exit Auctions
            with Multi-unit Demand and an Application to the Sale
            of Siberian Timber Export Permits
               Harry Paarsch (Western Ontario) et Jacques Robert
               (Montréal)


13h30-15h   TIME SERIES ANALYSIS I / SÉRIES TEMPORELLES I
R-1885
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Serena Ng (Montréal)

            Numerical Distribution Functions of Unit Root and
            Cointegration Tests
               James MacKinnon (Queen's)

            The Power of Cointegration Tests: Does the Frequency
            of Observation Matter?
               Alfred Haug (York)

            A Test of Efficiency for the Currency Option Market
            Using Stochastic Volatility Forecasts
               Dajiang Guo (Toronto)


13h30-15h   CEA / CPA: IMMIGRATION I / IMMIGRATION I
R-R140
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               David Green (British Columbia)

            Estimating the Effects of Immigration on Wages in
            Canada
               Samuel Laryea (Simon Fraser)

            Immigrant Earnings in Canada, 1982-1991
               David Prescott et Bo Wandschneider (Guelph)

            The Relative Performance of Immigrants in Norway,
            1980-1990
               John Ebenezer Hayfron (University of Bergen,
               Norway)

            DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
               E. Ruddick (Citizenship and Immigration Canada)
               Tim Fisher (Wilfrid Laurier)
               S. Fagnan (Fisheries and Oceans Canada)


13h30-15h   HEALTH ECONOMICS / ÉCONOMIE DE LA SANTÉ R-R110
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               André-Pierre Contandriopoulos (Montréal)

            HIV/AIDS Dynamics in a Model with Rational Agents
               Christopher Auld (Queen's)

            On Turning 65 in British Columbia: Effects of
            Prescription Drug Insurance Eligibility on
            Prescription Drug Utilization
               Paul Grootendorst (McMaster)

            Recruiting Registered Nurses: Effective Spending on
            Recruitment Strategies
               Chris Brown Mahoney (Metropolitan State University,
               Minneapolis)


13h30-15h15 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE II / ASSURANCE-CHÔMAGE II
R-1190
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Bentley MacLeod (Montréal)

            UI, Recall Biases, and Spikes: The Wake-up Call Theory
               Jonathan Leonard (California at Berkeley) et Marc
               Van Audenrode (Laval)

            Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Duration
               Michael Kidd (Tasmania) et Michael Shannon
               (Lakehead)

            Unemployment Insurance, Labor Market Dynamics, and
            Social Welfare
               David Andolfatto et Paul Gomme (Simon Fraser)

            An Index of the Generosity of Unemployment Insurance
               Timothy Sargent (Finance Canada)


13h30-15h   LABOUR MARKET POLICIES / POLITIQUES RELATIVES AU
            MARCHÉ DU TRAVAIL
R-1170
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Garnett Picot (Statistics Canada)

            A Macroeconomic Analysis of Marginal Employment
            Subsidies
               William Scarth (McMaster)

            Est-ce que le chômage partiel peut sauvegarder des
            emplois?
               David Gray et Erdal Atukeren (Ottawa)


13h30-15h   EXPECTED INFLATION AND REAL ACTIVITY / ATTENTES
            INFLATIONNISTES ET ÉCONOMIE RÉELLE
R-R160
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Alain Paquet (Québec à Montréal)

            The Adjustment of Inflation Expectations in Canada,
            1988-1994
               David Johnson (Wilfrid Laurier)

            Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Real Activity
            and Inflation: A Multivariate Analysis
               Ben Kwok et Pierre Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier)

            Regime Switching Models of Expected Inflation and Real
            Interest Rates
               Nicholas Ricketts (Bank of Canada)


13h30-15h   AGGREGATE MANUFACTURING / SECTEUR MANUFACTURIER
R-2840
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Surendra Gera (Industry Canada)

            Economies of Scale in Canadian Manufacturing: An
            Interprovincial Comparison
               Michael Benarroch (Winnipeg)

            Restructuring in the Canadian Manufacturing Sector
            from 1970 to 1990: Industry and Regional Dimensions of
            Job Turnover
               John Baldwin et Mohammed Rafiquzzaman (Statistics
               Canada)

            Labour-Services Complementarity and Technical Change
            Biases in Aggregate U.S. Manufacturing
               Jack Parkinson (Toronto)


13h30-15h   FINANCIAL HISTORY / HISTOIRE FINANCIÈRE
R-1860
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Benoît-Mario Papillon (Québec à Trois-Rivières)

            Wesley Mitchell and Irving Fisher on Greenback/Gold
            Returns, 1862-1879
               Gregor Smith et Todd Smith (Queen's)

            The Montreal Call Loan Rate and Chartered Bank
            Reserves
               Kieran Furlong (Toronto)

            Bank Chartering and Bank Failure, 1914-1934
               Mark Flood (Concordia) et Simon Kwan (Arizona)


13h30-15h   THE NEW ZEALAND AND ALBERTA EXPERIMENTS / LES
            EXPÉRIENCES NÉO-ZÉLANDAISE ET ALBERTAINE
R-M150
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Thomas Wilson (Toronto)

            Employment, Taxes and Welfare in New Zealand: Then and
            Now
               Tim Hazledine (Auckland, New Zealand)

            Shocks to the New Zealand Economy: A Simple Growth
            Model
               W. Razzak (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

            Can Alberta's Deficit Reduction Model Be Exported?
               Mark Dickerson (Calgary) et Greg Flanagan (Mount
               Royal)


13h30-15h   RURAL ECONOMICS IN LDCs I / ÉCONOMIE RURALE DANS LES
            PVD I
R-2680
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Paul-Martel Roy (Québec à Montréal)

            Testing Separation in Agricultural Household Models:
            The Effect of Rainfall on Household Composition
               Franque Grimard (McGill)

            The Dynamics of Rural Poverty in Growing Low Income
            Economies
               Désiré Vencatachellum (Hautes Études Commerciales)

            The Joint Agriculture-Health-Nutrition Technology in
            Developing Countries
               Christophe Muller (Laval)


13h30-15h   CEA / CABE PANEL: ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF SMALL AND
            NEWLY CREATED NATIONS / RENDEMENT ÉCONOMIQUE DES PETIS
            PAYS NOUVELLEMENT FORMÉS
R-R130
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Chris Lawless (B.C. Ministry of Finance and
               Corporate Relations)

            PANELISTS / PARTICIPANTS:
               John McClaughrey (Ethan Allen Institute)
               John Helliwell (British Columbia)
               Yuri Maltsev (Carthage College)


14h30-16h30 CEA / CEANA: EXCHANGE RATES AND FINANCIAL MARKETS IN
            EAST ASIAN ECONOMIES / TAUX DE CHANGE ET MARCHÉS
            FINANCIERS EN EXTRÊME-ORIENT
R-1880
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Kenneth Chan (McMaster)

            Exchange Rate Appreciation and Export Competitiveness
            in Singapore: The Flaws of Policy Generalization
               T. Abeysinghe et L.Y. Tan (NUS, Singapore)

            Understanding East Asian Real Exchange Rates
               P. Liu et J. Devereux (Miami)

            Tests of Reliability of Share Price Forecast Models
            Using Price/Earning Multiples in a Developing Asian
            Market
               M.H. Ngerng (NUS, Singapore)

            The Aftermarket Performance of Initial Public
            Offerings in Korea
               J.B. Kim (Concordia), I. Krinsky et J. Lee
               (McMaster)

            DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
               Sheng-Cheng Hu (Purdue)
               J.B. Kim (Concordia)
               M.H. Ngerng (NUS, Singapore)


15h20-16h50 CEA / CPA: IMMIGRATION II / IMMIGRATION II
R-R140
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Don DeVoretz (Simon Fraser)

            Occupational Mobility of the Foreign Born
               David Green (British Columbia)

            The Determinants of Industrial Employment by
            Immigrants
               C. McDonald et Pierre Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier)

            How Do We Go in Exchange for What? An Hedonic Model of
            Migration with Implications on the Distance Variable
               J. Heinrichs (Simon Fraser)

            DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
               Daniel Schwanen (C.D. Howe)
               Gilles Grenier (Ottawa)
               Christopher Nicol (Regina)


15h20-16h50 COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC POLICY / ANALYSE
            AVANTAGES-COUTS DE POLITIQUES PUBLIQUES
R-1170
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Almos Tassonyi (Ontario Ministry of Municipal
               Affairs)

            A Tale of Two Parkades: The Role of Cost-Benefit
            Analysis in Public Policy
               Peter Wylie (Trent)

            The Private Sector Role in Financing of Postsecondary
            Education
               Lawrence McDonough (Royal Military College) et
               Roger Wright (Singapore)

            A Test of Public Capital Efficiency
               Glen Otto et Graham Voss (New South Wales)


15h20-16h50 CANADIAN INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE AND TECHNOLOGY /
            STRUCTURE INDUSTRIELLE ET TECHNOLOGIE AU CANADA
R-M150
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Pierre Mohnen (Québec à Montréal)

            Canadian Industrial Performance: A Quantitative
            Assessment of High-Knowledge Industries versus Low-
            Knowledge Industries
               Handan Has et Frank Lee (Industry Canada)

            Changing Industrial Structure and Growth in Canada
               Surendra Gera (Industry Canada) et Kurt Mang
               (Finance Canada)

            The Skill Bias of Technological Change in Canadian
            Manufacturing Industries
               Julian Betts (California at San Diego)


15h20-16h50 THE CONSUMER AND THE ENVIRONMENT / LE CONSOMMATEUR ET
            L'ENVIRONNEMENT
R-1190
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Jim Johnson (McMaster)

            The Effect of Ambiguity on Consumers' Willingness to
            Pay for Pesticide-Residue Certification on Apples
               Jennifer Wohl (British Columbia) et Eileen van
               Ravenswaay (Michigan State)

            Economic and Sociological Factors Influencing the
            Willingness to Pay for Water Quality Enhancement:
            Results from a Contingent Valuation Survey
               James Brox, Ramesh Kumar, Ken Stollery, John Goyder
               et Keith Warriner (Waterloo)

            Exhaustible Resource Pricing and Consumption: Time-
            Series Tests of a Generalized Expected Utility Model
               Lars Olson et Perry Sadorsky (York)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
               Andrew Muller (McMaster)


15h20-16h50 BANK BEHAVIOUR / COMPORTEMENT DES BANQUES
R-1885
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               David Nickerson (American University, Washington)

            Credit Risk and Credit Rationing
               Robert Jones (Simon Fraser)

            An Empirical Test of Signalling in Free Banking: The
            Case of Hong Kong
               Kam Hon Chu (Concordia)

            Seasonal Offering and Option Trading by Investment
            Banks
               Joseph Fong (Queen's)


15h20-16h50 ECONOMIC THOUGHT / PENSÉE ÉCONOMIQUE
R-2680
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Melvin Cross (Queen's)

            The "New Institutionalism" and the Theory of the Firm
               Larry Levine (New Brunswick)

            Modern Free Banking and Adam Smith
               Theresa Chudy (Industry Canada) et Jack Galbraith
               (Carleton)

            Development and the Round-Aboutness of Production
               Gordon Anderson et Peter Ibbott (Toronto)

15h20-16h50 INTEREST RATES IN CANADA / TAUX D'INTÉRÊT AU CANADA
R-R130
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Stephen Poloz (Bank of Canada)

            The Determinants of Interest Rates in the Seventies,
            Eighties, and Nineties
               Gideon Rosenbluth (British Columbia)

            Decomposing the Canada-U.S. Interest Rate
            Differential: Is It Risk?
               Claude Lavoie (Finance Canada)

            Is the Canadian Real Interest Rate Stable?
               Werner Schüle et Chris Matier (Finance Canada)


15h20-16h50 AGGREGATE LABOUR MARKETS IN CANADA / ASPECTS
            MACROÉCONOMIQUES DU MARCHÉ DU TRAVAIL AU CANADA
R-R110
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               William Scarth (McMaster)

            Wage Determination in Canada
               Christian Dea et Benoît Robidoux (Finance Canada)

            Asymmetric Adjustment and Aggregate Labour Demand:
            Empirical Evidence for Canada
               Robert Amano et Leo Butler (Bank of Canada)


15h20-16h50 CHANGING LABOUR MARKETS / TRANSFORMATIONS DU MARCHÉ DU
            TRAVAIL
R-R160
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Marsha Courchane (Office of Comptroller of
               Currency, Washington)

            The Changing Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the
            Canadian Economy
               Andrew Heisz (Statistics Canada)

            A Duration Model of Moonlighting
               Jean Kimmel (Upjohn Institute) et Karen Conway (New
               Hampshire)


15h20-16h50 NEUTRALITY OF MONEY / NEUTRALITÉ DE LA MONNAIE
R-2930
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Michael Bordo (Rutgers)

            International Evidence on the Neutrality of Money
               Apostolos Serletis et David Krause (Calgary)

            Testing the Validity of Long-Run Neutrality
            Propositions: The Case of Canada
               Zisimos Koustas (Brock)

            Does Money Induce Demand Shocks?
               Kiseok Lee (Missouri)


15h20-16h50 THEORY OF MARKETS II / THÉORIE DES MARCHÉS II
R-2840

            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Harry Paarsch (Western Ontario)

            The Rational Expectations Function
               Camille Bronsard, Lise Salvas-Bronsard (Montréal)
               et Alain Trognon (ENSAÉ)

            Equilibrium for Financial Markets with Discontinuous
            Preferences
               Osamu Ishimoto (Windsor)

            Doubly Implementing the Equitable and Efficient
            Solutions
               Sang-Chul Suh (Windsor)


17h-18h15   HAROLD INNIS LECTURE / CONFÉRENCE HAROLD INNIS
J-M415
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Pierre Fortin (Québec à Montréal)

            SPEAKER / CONFÉRENCIER:
               Leonard Dudley (Montréal)

            TITLE / TITRE:
               Space, Time, Number: Harold Innis as Evolutionary
               Theorist


18h30-19h30 RECEPTION HOSTED BY THE RECTOR OF UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC
            À MONTRÉAL / RÉCEPTION DU RECTEUR DE L'UNIVERSITÉ DU
            QUÉBEC À MONTRÉAL
D-COUR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

                 SATURDAY JUNE 3 / SAMEDI 3 JUIN



8h30-10h30  CEA / C.D. HOWE INSTITUTE / OECD: INTERNATIONAL
            INVESTMENT, MARKET ACCESS, AND MULTILATERAL RULES I /
            INVESTISSEMENT ÉTRANGER, ACCÈS AUX MARCHÉS ET RÈGLES
            MULTILATÉRALES I
R-1880
            WELCOME / MOT DE BIENVENUE:
               Angela Ferrante (C.D. Howe Institute)

            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Pierre Pettigrew (International Relations and Trade
               Consultant, Montreal)

            Market Access Through Market Presence: New Directions
            in Investment Rule-Making
               Pierre Sauvé (OECD)

            Investment and the New Multilateral Trade Context
               Edward Graham (Institute for International
               Economics, Washington)

            Conceptual Framework for a Multilateral Investment
            Agreement (MIA)
               Alan Rugman (Toronto)

            DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
               Michael Hart (Foreign Affairs and International
               Trade Canada)
               Steven Canner (U.S. Council for International
               Business, Washington)
               Daniel Schwanen (C.D. Howe Institute)


8h30-10h    ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT / MESURE DES GRANDEURS
            ÉCONOMIQUES
R-1885
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Nicholas Ricketts (Bank of Canada)

            Aggregate Price Level and True Cost-of-Living Index
               Wusan Xi (Ottawa)

            Microeconomic Foundations for the Theory of
            International Comparisons
               Keir Armstrong (British Columbia)

            The Sensitivity of the Distribution of Income to
            Alternative Definitions of Income
               Fazley Siddiq (Dalhousie)


8h30-10h    STATISTICAL INFERENCE II / INFÉRENCE STATISTIQUE II
R-R160
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Victoria Zinde-Walsh (McGill)

            Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown
            Breakpoint
               Éric Ghysels (Montréal), Alain Guay (Bank of
               Canada) et Alastair Hall (North Carolina State)

            Testing Homogeneity in the Linearized Almost Ideal
            Demand System
               Adolf Buse (Alberta)


8h30-10h    ECONOMICS OF CHILDREN / ÉCONOMIE DES FLOTS
R-1170
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Guy Lacroix (Laval)

            Determinants of the Spell of Non-Participation
            Following Childbirth for Canadian Women
               Christian Belzil et Padma Rao Sahib (Concordia)

            Investing in Children's Altruism
               Jerzy Konieczny (Wilfrid Laurier)

            The Effects of Declining Earnings of Young Workers on
            Poverty among Young Families and Children
               John Miles (Florida State) et Garnett Picot
               (Statistics Canada)


8h30-10h    DURABLE GOODS PRODUCERS / FABRICANTS DE BIENS DURABLES
R-1860
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Zhiqi Chen (Carleton)

            Roller Coastering Up and Down the Demand Curve of a
            Durable Goods Monopolist
               John Spicer (Queen's)

            Durability, Learning and Time-Differentiated Demand
               Christopher Green (McGill)


8h30-10h    LABOUR MARKET SEARCH I / PROSPECTION SUR LE MARCHÉ DE
            L'EMPLOI I
R-2840
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Christopher Ragan (McGill)

            Recall versus Search: The Employer's Decision
               Elizabeth Cunningham (Oklahoma) et Panayiotis
               Mavros (Wayne State)

            When Do Firms Search for Workers?
               David Scoones (Texas at Austin)


8h30-10h    PRICING BEHAVIOUR / FORMATION DES PRIX
R-R110
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Joseph Doucet (Laval)

            Desperate Sellers
               David Hanly (Saskatchewan Energy Conservation and
               Development Authority)

            Within-Market Price Dispersion in Franchised Chains:
            A Look at the Fast-Food Industry
               Francine Lafontaine (Michigan)

            Optimal Time for Reorganization in Bankruptcy
               Dan Bernhardt et Dennis Lu (Queen's)


8h30-10h    CYCLICAL IMPULSES AND PROPAGATION / PERTURBATIONS ET
            PROPAGATION CYCLIQUES
R-R140
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Steven Ambler (Québec à Montréal)

            The Labour Market in Business Cycles
               Louis Phaneuf (Québec à Montréal) et Alain Guay
               (Banque du Canada)

            Intermediated Finance, Inventory Investment, and the
            Monetary Transmission Mechanism
               Peter Thurlow (Bank of Canada)

            Unemployment Insurance and the Business Cycle
               Laura Brown et Christopher Ferrall (Queen's)


8h30-10h    INDUSTRIAL POLICY / POLITIQUE INDUSTRIELLE
R-M180
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Denis Gauthier (Industry Canada)

            Small-Firm Manufacturing Networks and Infrastructure
            Policy
               Lynne Pepall (Tufts)

            Industrial Policy with a Menu of Programmes
               Benoît Delage (British Columbia)

            The Attraction of Foreign Manufacturing
            Establishments: Investment Promotion and Agglomeration
            Economies
               Keith Head, John Ries (British Columbia) et Deborah
               Swenson (California at Davis)


8h30-10h    ADJUSTMENT TO FOREIGN SHOCKS / ADAPTATION AUX
            PERTURBATIONS EXTÉRIEURES
R-R130
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Christian Zimmermann (Québec à Montréal)

            Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and
            Adjustment: Some Empirical Evidence
               Tamin Bayoumi et Eswar Prasad (International
               Monetary Fund)

            Membership in the CFA Zone: A Comparative Study
               Dieynaba Tandian (Queen's)

            The Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks on Output and the
            Trade Balance
               Glenn Otto (New South Wales, Australia)


8h30-10h    WELFARE AND THE ENVIRONMENT / ENVIRONNEMENT ET BIEN-
            ÊTRE
R-1190
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Nancy Olewiler (Simon Fraser)

            Environmental Capital and Sustainable Income: Basic
            Concepts and Some Empirical Tests
               Dodo Thampapillai (Macquarie, Australia) et Hans-
               Erik Uhlin (Swedish University of Agricultural
               Sciences, Uppsala)

            When Urban Land Rent Increments Measure Technical
            Progress
               John Hartwick (Queen's)


8h30-10h    MACROECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF LDCs / PROBLÈMES
            MACROÉCONOMIQUES DES PVD
R-2930
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Syed Ahsan (Concordia)

            Explaining the Service Sector Growth: An Empirical
            Study of India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka
               Mohammed Ansari (Athabasca)

            Macroeconomic Policy of an Oil Exporting Country,
            Iran: A Cointegration SVAR Analysis
               Ata Mazaheri (Toronto)


8h30-10h    TAXATION AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION / FISCALITÉ ET
            ACCUMULATION DU CAPITAL
R-2680
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Jie Zhang (Victoria)

            Intertemporal Equity of Taxation in the Presence of
            Public Debt and Public Capital
               Shinji Yamashige (Toronto)

            The Welfare Effects of Tax Reforms in a Monetary
            Economy
               David Love (Brock) et Jean-François Wen (Wilfrid
               Laurier)

            Taxation, Human Capital Accumulation, and Economic
            Growth
               Shuanglin Lin (Nebraska)


10h20-11h50 CEA / CABE PANEL: BALANCED BUDGETS IN THE PROVINCES /
            ÉQUILIBRE BUDGÉTAIRE DANS LES PROVINCES
R-M180
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Catherine Harris (Investment Executive)

            PANELISTS / PARTICIPANTS:
               Grant Robertson (Alberta Treasury)
               Stephen Watson (Manitoba Department of Finance)
               Chris Lawless (B.C. Ministry of Finance and
               Corporate Relations)
               Norm Campbell (New Brunswick Department of Finance)


10h20-11h50 LABOUR SUPPLY IN LDCs / OFFRE DE TRAVAIL DANS LES PVD
R-2930
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Padma Rao Sahib (Concordia)

            Labour Supply of Households with Migrants: Evidence
            from the Philippines
               Edgard Rodriguez (Toronto)

            Segmented Labour Markets and Labour Supply Decisions:
            Evidence from Cameroun
               Christophe Muller (Laval)


10h20-11h50 SLOWER GROWTH AND HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT / CROISSANCE
            RALENTIE ET CHÔMAGE ACCRU
R-2680
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Farid Novin (Bank of Canada)

            An Empirical Analysis of Growth and Stagnation in the
            OECD Countries
               Mohammad Selim (Dalhousie)

            Productivity Slowdown in the United States: Some New
            Evidence from the Level Shift Hypothesis
               Baldev Raj (Wilfrid Laurier) et Daniel Slottje
               (Southern Methodist)

            The Real Debt Resistance Hypothesis: Nominal Wage
            Rigidity and Unemployment
               Javid Taheri (Saint Mary's)


10h20-11h50 FIRM BEHAVIOUR AND THE ENVIRONMENT / ENVIRONNEMENT ET
            COMPORTEMENT DE L'ENTREPRISE
R-R160
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               John Hartwick (Queen's)

            Exhaustible Resource Depletion in the Presence of
            Stock Dependent Extraction Costs
               John Livernois et Patrick Martin (Guelph)

            The Determinants of an Environmentally Responsive
            Firm: An Empirical Approach
               Irène Henriques et Perry Sadorsky (York)

            Environmental Protection and Endogenous Market
            Structures: The Case of Differentiated Products
               Christos Constantatos (Laval) et Eftichios
               Sartzetakis (British Columbia)


10h20-11h50 TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES / STRUCTURE DES TAUX
            D'INTÉRÊT SELON L'ÉCHÉANCE
R-1170
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Gregor Smith (Queen's)

            Are Term Premia Economically Significant?
               Gordon Fisher, Douglas Wilson (Concordia) et Kuan
               Xu (Dalhousie)

            Can a Nominal Term Structure Predict Changes in
            Expected Inflation?
               Colin Telmer (Queen's)

            Are Term Premia Mean Reverting?
               Walid Hejazi (Toronto)


10h20-11h50 REGULATION / RÉGLEMENTATION
R-2840
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Jean-Thomas Bernard (Laval)

            Regulatory Constraints, Averch-Johnson Effects, and
            Endogenous Prices
               Christos Constantatos et Joseph Doucet (Laval)

            Can the Merger of Container Transport Firms Be
            Contrary to the Public Interest?
               Fernand Martin (Montréal)

            No-Fault Insurance as a Rational Response to Rate
            Regulation
               Rose Anne Devlin (Ottawa)


10h20-11h50 MEASURING THE OUTPUT GAP / DUR, DUR DE MESURER L'ÉCART
            AU POTENTIEL
R-1860
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               John Helliwell (British Columbia)

            Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?
               Simon van Norden (Bank of Canada)

            On Measuring Potential Output When You Know You're
            Going to be Wrong: A Stochastic Simulation Approach
               Robert Tetlow, Don Coletti et Dirk Muir (Bank of
               Canada)


10h20-11h50 MEASUREMENT AND CAUSES OF UNEMPLOYMENT / MESURE ET
            CAUSES DU CHOMAGE
R-R130
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Andrew Heisz (Statistics Canada)

            Spells Off Welfare for Men: Are They Mostly Employment
            Spells?
               John Cragg (British Columbia) et Alice Nakamura
               (Alberta)

            Alternative Measures of Unemployment Based on Flow
            Data
               Stephen Jones (McMaster) et Craig Riddell (British
               Columbia)

            La source des fluctuations du chômage au Canada:
            analyse d'un modèle à correction d'erreurs
               Richard Archambault et Mario Fortin (Sherbrooke)



10h20-11h50 ÉCONOMIE DE L'ÉDUCATION / ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION
R-R110
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Marc Bilodeau (Sherbrooke)

            Self Selection, Majority Voting, and the Optimal
            Finance of Education
               Charles Leung et Ban Chuan Cheah (Rochester)

            Educational Streaming and the Roy Model
               Kelly Bedard (Queen's)

            Gender Differences in Education in a Two-Sex
            Overlapping Generations Bargaining Model
               Christina Echevarria (Saskatchewan) et Antonio
               Merlo (Minnesota)

            Optimal Public Education in LDCs with Private
            Education
               Bagala Biswal (Memorial)


10h20-11h50 INNOVATION / INNOVATION
R-1885
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Michael Denny (Toronto)

            On the Law of Proportionate Effect, Innovative
            Activity and Firm Growth-Size Relationship: Some
            Canadian Evidence
               Arun Mukhopadhyay et Saleh Amirkhalkhali (Saint
               Mary's)

            Market Conduct and Cooperative Search
               Alan Gunderson (Queen's)

            Towards a Stochastic Theory for the Location of
            Innovative Activities
               Christian DeBresson (Québec à Montréal) et Hu
               Xiaoping (McGill)


10h20-11h50 REAL BUSINESS CYCLES / CYCLES RÉELS
R-R140
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               William Lang (Office of the Comptroller of the
               Currency, Washington)

            Bayesian Learning, Monopolistic Competition and the
            Real Business Cycle
               Bartholomew Moore et Dominique Simard (Rutgers)

            La corrélation inflation-chômage dans un modèle
            incorporant la monnaie et un secteur gouvernemental
               Steven Ambler (Québec à Montréal), Marie-Josée
               Godbout (Bank of Canada) et Louis Phaneuf (Québec à
               Montréal)

            Forecasting with International Real Business Cycle
            Models
               Christian Zimmermann (Québec à Montréal)


10h45-12h00 CEA / C.D. HOWE INSTITUTE / OECD: INTERNATIONAL
            INVESTMENT, MARKET ACCESS, AND MULTILATERAL RULES II
            / INVESTISSEMENT ÉTRANGER, ACCÈS AUX MARCHÉS ET RÈGLES
            MULTILATÉRALES II
R-1880
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Michael Hart (Foreign Affairs and International
               Trade Canada)

            Formal and Informal Investment Barriers in the G7
            Countries
               Someshwar Rao et Ash Ahmad (Industry Canada)

            Private and Public Impediments to Market Presence:
            Exploring the Investment-Competition Nexus
               Mark Warner (University of Baltimore)

            DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
               Donald McFetridge (Carleton)
               Ed Safarian (Toronto)


12h-14h     DOUG PURVIS MEMORIAL LUNCHEON / DÉJEUNER COMMÉMORATIF
            DOUG PURVIS
J-M100
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Alice Nakamura (Alberta)

            AWARD OF DOUG PURVIS MEMORIAL PRIZE / ATTRIBUTION DU
            PRIX COMMÉMORATIF DOUG PURVIS

            LUNCHEON SPEAKER / CONFÉRENCIER:
               Peter Diamond (Massachusetts Institute of
               Technology)

            TITLE / TITRE:
            On Public Pensions

            This is a fee event ($15 regular; $10 students). Room
            is limited. Tickets should be purchased at the
            Conference Registration Desk.

            Le nombre de places est limité. On se procure un
            billet au kiosque d'inscription du congrès (tarif
            régulier: 15 $; tarif étudiant: 10 $).


14h-15h     GENERAL MEETING OF THE ASSOCIATION / ASSEMBLÉE
            GÉNÉRALE DE L'ASSOCIATION
J-M100
            ANNOUNCEMENT OF PRIZE WINNERS / ANNONCE DES LAURÉATS
            DES PRIX SUIVANTS:

               Harry Johnson Prize / Prix Harry Johnson

               John Vanderkamp Prize / Prix John Vanderkamp

            OTHER ASSOCIATION BUSINESS / AUTRES ITEMS À L'ORDRE DU
            JOUR DE L'ASSEMBLÉE

            This meeting is open to all conference participants.
            It is held in the same room as the Doug Purvis
            Memorial Luncheon.

            Tous les inscrits au congrès sont bienvenus à cette
            assemblée. Elle a lieu dans la même pièce que le
            déjeuner commémoratif Doug Purvis.


15h20-16h50 CEA / CABE PANEL: CANADA'S NEXT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN / LE
            PROCHAIN RALENTISSEMENT ÉCONOMIQUE AU CANADA
R-R130
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               George Saba (Economic Consultant)

            PANELISTS / PARTICIPANTS:
               Leo de Bever (Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board)
               Duncan Cameron (Canadian Centre for Policy
               Alternatives)
               John Richards (Simon Fraser)
               Owen Lippert (Fraser Institute)


15h20-16h50 CEA / C.D. HOWE INSTITUTE / OECD: INTERNATIONAL
            INVESTMENT, MARKET ACCESS, AND MULTILATERAL RULES III
            / INVESTISSEMENT ÉTRANGER, ACCÈS AUX MARCHÉS ET RÈGLES
            MULTILATÉRALES III
R-1880
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Don McFetridge (Carleton)

            Deep Integration: Tax Harmonisation and Investment
            Policies in North America
               Lorraine Eden (Carleton)

            Technology, International Investment and Market Access
               Christopher Wilkie (Industry Canada) et John de la
               Mothe (Ottawa)

            DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
               Stéphane Dupuis (Hautes Études Commerciales)
               Gilles Paquet (Ottawa)


15h20-16h50 EQUALIZATION / PÉRÉQUATION
R-1190
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               David Sewell (World Bank)

            Alternative Approaches to Fiscal Federalism:
            Horizontal Equity Equalization versus Fiscal Capacity
            Equalization
               Richard Musgrave (Harvard) et Peter Mieszkowski
               (Rice)

            Equity, Equality and Equalization
               Dan Usher (Queen's)

            Insurance and Incentive Effects of Transfers between
            Regions: Equity and Efficiency
               Sam Bucovetsky (York)

            DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
               Robin Boadway (Queen's)
               Stanley Winer (Carleton)


15h20-16h50 TRADE AND WAGES IN LDCs / COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL ET
            SALAIRES DANS LES PVD
R-R110
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               John Norsworthy (Rensselaer Polytechnic)

            Effects of China's Foreign Trade Reform on Asia's
            Trade and Welfare
               Winnie Lam (Western Ontario)

            The Premium for Skills in LDCs: Evidence from Mexico
               Michael Cragg (Columbia) et Mario Epelbaum (ITAM,
               Mexico)

            Trade and Wage Dispersion in Chile, Colombia, Costa
            Rica, Argentina and Malaysia: Comparison and Synthesis
               Donald Robbins (Harvard)


15h20-16h50 CEA / CWEN: GENDER GAPS / ÉCARTS ENTRE HOMMES ET
            FEMMES
R-R140
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Mary Bohman (British Columbia)

            Is the Gender Gap Narrowing Faster than the Human
            Capital Gap?
               David Coish (Statistics Canada)

            A Search Interpretation of Male-Female Wage
            Differentials
               Audra Bowlus (Western Ontario)

            The Gender Gap: What Has Happened over the 1980's in
            Canada?
               Michael Kidd (Tasmania) et Michael Shannon
               (Lakehead)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRES:
               Lisa Powell (Queen's)


15h20-16h50 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS II / SÉRIES TEMPORELLES II
R-2840
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Michael Sampson (Concordia)

            Simple Estimation and Identification Techniques for
            Stationary and Non-Stationary ARMA Models
               John Galbraith et Victoria Zinde-Walsh (McGill)

            Stochastic Trends, Deterministic Trends, and Business
            Cycle Turning Points
               Stephen Gordon (Laval)

            Business Cycle Turning Points: Two Empirical Business
            Cycle Model Approaches
               Todd Clark, Andrew Filardo (Federal Reserve of
               Kansas City) et Stephen Gordon (Laval)


15h20-16h50 INCOME SECURITY / SÉCURITÉ DU REVENU
R-R160
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               William Watson (McGill)

            An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Dependence on
            Social Welfare in Québec
               Bernard Fortin, Guy Lacroix et Hélène Roberge
               (Laval)

            Child Support Guidelines in Canada
               Ross Finnie (Carleton and Statistics Canada) et
               Daniel Stritinis (Stritinis Consulting)

            The Interaction of Unemployment Insurance and Social
            Assistance in Canada
               Gary Barrett (British Columbia)


15h20-16h50 MARKET ENTRY AND EXIT / ENTRÉE ET SORTIE DU MARCHÉR-2630
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Francine Lafontaine (Michigan, Ann Arbor)

            Does Heiner's Model Explain the Entry-Exit Behaviour
            of Competitive Firms?
               Iraj Fooladi (Dalhousie) et Nargess Kayhani (Mount
               Saint Vincent)

            Market Size and Welfare under Free Entry
               F.J. Anderson (Lakehead)

            Strategic Delegation in Oligopoly
               Stephen Ziss (Sidney, Australia)


15H20-16H50 EFFECTS OF NOMINAL WAGE CONTRACTS / CONSÉQUENCES DES
            CONTRATS NOMINAUX
R-1885
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Robert Tetlow (Bank of Canada)

            The Welfare Costs of Nominal Wage Contracting
               Jang Ok Cho (Queen's), Thomas Cooley (Rochester) et
               Louis Phaneuf (Québec à Montréal)

            Nominal Rigidities and the International Transmission
            of the Business Cycle
               Steven Ambler (Québec à Montreal) et
Emanuela Cardia (Montréal)

            The Effects of Fiscal Policies in a General
            Equilibrium Model with Nominal Wage Contracts
               Emanuela Cardia (Montréal)


15h20-16h50 LAW AND ECONOMICS / DROIT ET SCIENCE ÉCONOMIQUE
R-1860
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Patricia Koss (Guelph)

            Emotional Litigation, Damage Awards and the Allocation
            of Legal Costs
               Glenn Feltham et William Morrison (Wilfrid Laurier)

            Settlement of Litigation under Rule 68: An Economic
            Analysis
               Tai-Yeong Chung (Western Ontario)



15h20-16h50 CEA / CRSA: ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT ACROSS REGIONS /
            AJUSTEMENT ÉCONOMIQUE INTERRÉGIONAL
R-1170
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               William Milne (New Brunswick)

            Economic Adjustment across the Canadian Provinces: The
            Role of Factor Movements and Prices
               William Milne et B.A. Mullin (New Brunswick)

            Wage Rigidity and Provincial Unemployment Rates, 1961-
            1991
               Ronald Kneebone (Calgary) et James Johnson
               (Okanagan)

            The Effects of Public Debt on Regional Adjustment:
            Some Preliminary Theory
               D. Rowlands (Carleton)

            Regional Labour Market Adjustments in Response to
            Changes in Transfer Payments
               C. Leiser (Government of Newfoundland)


15h20-16h50 TAXATION AS GAME / LA FISCALITÉ COMME JEU
R-2930
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Paul Gomme (Simon Fraser)

            The Formulation of Income Tax Policy: A Game Theoretic
            Approach
               Granville Ansong et Barry Gorman (Saint Mary's)

            Municipal Tax Competition in a Canadian Context
               Wade Locke (Memorial) et Almos Tassonyi (Ontario
               Ministry of Municipal Affairs)

            Corporate Tax Asymmetries: An Oligopolistic Supergame
            Analysis
               Pierre-Pascal Gendron (Toronto)


17h-18h15   PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS / DISCOURS DE LA PRÉSIDENTE
J-M415
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT DE SÉANCE:
               Thomas Courchene (Queen's)

            SPEAKER / ORATEUR:
               Alice Nakamura (Alberta)

            TITLE / TITRE:
               New Directions for Unemployment Insurance, Social
               Assistance, and Vocational Education and Training


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

                 SUNDAY JUNE 4 / DIMANCHE 4 JUIN



8h30-10h    TRADE AND WAGES IN ADVANCED COUNTRIES / COMMERCE
            INTERNATIONAL ET SALAIRES DANS LES PAYS AVANCÉS
R-1880
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Charles Beach (Queen's)

            The Impact of International Trade on Growing Wage
            Inequality
               Eugene Beaulieu et Michael Cragg (Columbia)

            Implications of Trade on Wages and Jobs in Canada
               Frank Lee (Industry Canada)


8h30-10h    RURAL ECONOMICS IN LDCs II / ÉCONOMIE RURALE DANS LES
            PVD II
R-R160
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Christophe Muller (Laval)

            Rent-Seeking Activity in Coffee Exporting Countries:
            Effects of International Coffee Agreement Quotas and
            their Suspension
               Mary Bohman (British Columbia) et Lovell Jarvis
               (California at Davis)

            Productivity and Organization in China's Rural
            Industries: An Efficient Frontier Analysis
               Xiao-Yuan Dong (Winnipeg) et Louis Putterman
               (Brown)


8h30-10h    ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AND TAXATION / CROISSANCE ENDOGÈNE
            ET FISCALITÉR-1170
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Dominique Simard (Rutgers)

            Optimal Taxation in an Endogenous Growth Model with
            Government-Supplied Educational Capital
               Paul Gomme (Simon Fraser)

            Social Security and Endogenous Growth
               Jie Zhang (Victoria)

            Government Spending and Taxation in a Two-Sector
            Endogenous Growth Model
               Jing Xu (Finance Canada)


8h30-10h    ANALYSIS OF PARTICULAR TAXES / ANALYSE DE TAXES
            PARTICULIÈRES
R-R110
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Dan Usher (Queen's)

            Incidence and Distribution: Newfoundland's Consumption
            Tax Revisited
            K.S. Nadarajah et Michael Wernerheim (Memorial)

            Technology Spillovers and the Taxation of Foreign
            Direct Investment
               Marianne Vigneault (Bishop's)

            Potential Gross Welfare Changes from a Revenue-Neutral
            Carbon Tax: An Econometric General Equilibrium
            Analysis
               Ross McKitrick (British Columbia)


8h30-10h    MONEY AND INTEREST RATES / MONNAIE ET INTÉRÊT
R-2630
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Colin Telmer (Queen's)

            Commercial Bank Interest Rates in Canada
               Barry Scholnick (Alberta)

            Bargaining-Induced Transaction Demand for Fiat Money
               Merwan Engineer (Guelph) et Shouyong Shi (Queen's)

            Domestic and External Factors in Interest Rate
            Determination
               Guglielmo Maria Caporale (London Business School)
               et Nikitas Pittis (Cyprus)


8h30-10h    INCOME CONVERGENCE AMONG COUNTRIES / CONVERGENCE
            INTERNATIONALE DES REVENUS
R-R140
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Diana Tsai (Concordia)
               
            Productivity Convergence in OECD Countries, 1960-1993
               Cemile Sancak (Carleton)

            Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Income
            Convergence in Canada and the United States
               Dajin Li (Carleton)

            Adoption of New Technology by a Lagging Country:
            Leapfrogging or Divergence?
               Zhiqi Chen (Carleton)


8h30-10h    FINANCIAL MARKETS II / MARCHÉS FINANCIERS II
R-2840
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Thomas McCurdy (Queen's)

            A Two-Factor Model of Asset Pricing: Volatility
            Shocks, Conditional Coskewness and Conditional Beta
               Marie Racine (Wilfrid Laurier)

            Estimating State-Dependent Risk Aversion Using Data
            Augmentation
               Stephen Gordon et Pascal Saint-Amour (Laval)


8h30-10h    PROBIT AND DURATION MODELS / MODÈLES DE TYPE PROBIT ET
            DE DURÉE
R-2930
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Michael Cragg (Columbia)

            Looking for the Best Maximum Simulated Likelihood
            Technique to Estimate Multinomial Probit Models?
               Denis Bolduc (Laval)

            Multinomial Probit Estimation of Models Exhibiting a
            General Error Covariance Structure without Nuisance
            Parameters
               Jon Breslaw (Concordia)

            Bayesian Analysis of Duration Models: An Application
            to Bankruptcy
               Kai Li (Toronto)


8h30-10h    LABOUR MARKET SEARCH II / PROSPECTION SUR LE MARCHÉ DE
            L'EMPLOI II
R-2680
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               David Scoones (Texas at Austin)

            Offer Arrival Rates, Reservation Wages, and the
            Dynamics of Unemployment
               Francis L'Italien et Paul Storer (Québec à Montréal)

            Is There Compelling Evidence Against Increasing
            Returns to Matching in the Labour Market?
               Simon Baker (Department of Trade and Industry,
               United Kingdom), Seamus Hogan et Christopher Ragan
               (McGill)

            Unemployment Insurance Analysis in a Search Economy
               Guang-Jia Zhang (Rochester)


8h30-10h    CENTRAL BANK BEHAVIOUR / COMPORTEMENT DES BANQUES
            CENTRALES
R-1860
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Peter Thurlow (Bank of Canada)

            Central Bank Independence and Growth: A Sensitivity
            Analysis
               Hafiz Akhand (Regina)

            Electoral Effects on Central Bank Behaviour
               Edward Kutsoati (Queen's)

            Bayesian Analysis of the Fed's Open Market Operations:
            An Application of Dynamic Tobit-Like Models
               Steven Wei (Toronto)


8h30-10h    WAGE AND INCOME INEQUALITY / INÉGALITÉS DES SALAIRES
            ET DES REVENUS
R-M180
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Stephen Jones (McMaster)

            Why Has Inequality in Weekly Wages Increased in
            Canada?
               René Morissette (Statistics Canada)

            Changes in the Distribution of Wages in Canada, 1981-
            1992
               David Richardson (Saint Lawrence, N.Y.)

            Unto the Sons: An Analysis of Intergenerational Income
            Mobility among Canadian Males
               Miles Corak et Andrew Heisz (Statistics Canada)


8h30-10h    WAGES AND BARGAINING / SALAIRES ET NÉGOCIATION
R-1190
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Felice Martinello (Brock)

            The Intra-Contract Life of the Nominal and Real Wage
            Rates
               Louis Christofides et Audrey Sattelberger-Laporte
               (Guelph)

            Firm Wage Effects: Rents or Sorting?
               Thomas Crossley et Peter Kuhn (McMaster)

            Pattern Bargaining
               David Scowcroft et Dan Bernhardt (Queen's)


9h30-11h30  CEA / CEANA: ECONOMIC ISSUES IN TAIWAN AND CHINA /
            PROBLÈMES ÉCONOMIQUES DE TAIWAN ET DE LA CHINE
R-1885
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Sheng-Cheng Hu (Purdue)

            The Share of Informal Financing: The Case of Taiwan
               Jia-Dong Shea (Academia Sinica, Taiwan)

            The Role of Human Capital Investment for Economies in
            Transition: An Alternative View of Taiwan's Economic
            Development
               Ming-Chang Cheng (SUNY, Buffalo)

            The Development of Non-Bank Financial Institutions in
            China
               Yingfeng Xu (Alberta)

            A Structural Model of Inflation in China: The Role of
            the State Sector
               Haiying Zhao (UST, Hong Kong)

            DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
               Kenneth Chan (McMaster)
               Jia-Dong Shea (Academia Sinica, Taiwan)
               Ming-Chang Cheng (SUNY, Buffalo)


10h20-11h50 CEA / CABE PANEL: AGRICULTURAL TRADE AFTER NAFTA AND
            GATT / LE COMMERCE AGRICOLE APRÈS L'ALÉNA ET LE GATT
R-2840
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Gerald Trant (Consultant)

            PANELISTS / PANÉLISTES:
               Richard Barichello (British Columbia)
               Bruno Larue (Laval)
               Kathleen Macmillan (Global Economics)
               Murray Smith (Carleton)


10h20-11h50 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS III / SÉRIES TEMPORELLES III
R-2930
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Alfred Haug (York)

            The Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VAR
            (or VECM) with Long-Run Restrictions
               Alain DeSerres (Finance Canada) et Alain Guay (Bank
               of Canada)

            A VAR-Error Correction (VAREC) Model for Analyzing
            Timing and Calibration of Monetary Policy
               Farid Novin (Bank of Canada)


10h20-11h50 REGULATION II / RÉGLEMENTATION II
R-R140
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Rose Anne Devlin (Ottawa)

            Performance Measurement in Telecommunications: A
            Comparison of Model Estimation and Data Envelopment
            Analysis
               John Norsworthy (Rensselaer Polytechnic) et Diana
               Tsai (Concordia)

            Refusals to Deal in Competitive Markets
               Zhiqi Chen (Carleton) et Thomas Ross (British
               Columbia)

            Test of Utility Functions in the Context of Road
            Safety
               Bachir Belhadji (Montréal)


10h20-11h50 EARNINGS OF PARTICULAR GROUPS / GAINS SALARIAUX DE
            GROUPES PARTICULIERS
R-1190
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Ross Finnie (Carleton and Statistics Canada)

            Earnings of the Disabled: A Case of Discrimination?
               Jon Harkness (Queen's)

            A Distributional Analysis of the Earnings of Whites
            and Blacks in the United States, 1969-1990
               Charles Beach, Richard Chaykowski (Queen's) et
               George Slotsve (Vanderbilt)

            Labour Market Earnings and Religion in Canada:
            Evidence from the 1991 Census
               Ather Akbari (Saint Mary's)

            DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
               René Morissette (Statistics Canada)
               Jean Kimmel (Upjohn Institute)


10h20-11h50 CEA / CSLS: THE CANADA-U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GAP I /
            L'ÉCART DE CHOMAGE ENTRE LE CANADA ET LES ÉTATS-UNIS
            I
R-M180
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Ian Stewart (Centre for the Study of Living
               Standards)

            A Survey of Explanations for the Canada-U.S.
            Unemployment Rate Gap
               Andrew Sharpe (Centre for the Study of Living
               Standards)

            Unemployment in Canada and the United States: A
            Further Analysis
               David Card (Princeton) et Craig Riddell (British
               Columbia)

            Why Is the Unemployment Rate Higher in Canada than in
            the United States?
               Maxime Fougère (Finance Canada)

            DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
               Miles Corak (Statistics Canada)
               Lars Osberg (Dalhousie)


10h20-11h50 EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY / INSTABILITÉ DES TAUX DE
            CHANGE
R-1880
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Simon van Norden (Bank of Canada)

            Speculative Currency Attacks with Endogenously-Induced
            Commercial Bank Crises
               Victoria Miller (Québec à Montréal)

            Hedging Foreign Currency Portfolios
               Louis Gagnon (Queen's), Gregory Lypny (Concordia)
               et Thomas McCurdy (Queen's)

            Credit Market Imperfections and Exchange Rate
            Variability
               Wai-Ming Ho (Waterloo)


10h20-11h50 WATER MANAGEMENT / GESTION DE L'EAU
R-1170
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Robert McRae (Calgary)

            Compensation Payments for Regulatory Takings: Catalyst
            or Impediment to Canada's Reform of Water Allocation
               Ted Horbulyk (Calgary)

            Instruments for Controlling Water Quality from
            Nonpoint Sources: Nutrient Pollution Tradeoffs and
            Individual Profits
               Anastasia Lintner (Guelph)

            Discharging Industrial Pollutants into the Great
            Lakes: Pollution Permits Will Not Solve the Moral
            Hazard Problem
               Anindya Sen (Toronto)


10h20-11h50 DYNAMIC EXTERNALITIES AND GROWTH / EFFETS EXTERNES
            DYNAMIQUES ET CROISSANCE
R-R160
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Merwan Engineer (Guelph)

            Human Capital Vintages, Network Externalities, and
            Distribution
               Peter Kennedy et Ian King (Victoria)

            Dynamic Externalities and Policy Coordination
               Manjira Datta (Saskatchewan) et Leonard Mirman
               (Virginia)

            Endogenous Technological Change and Wage Inequality
               Huw Lloyd-Ellis (Toronto)


10h20-11h50 FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT / FINANCE ET DÉVELOPPEMENT
R-2680
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Emanuela Cardia (Montréal)

            The Debt Overhang and Poorer LDCs: Testing for
            Causality Between Indebtedness and Growth
               Saud Choudhry et Mak Arvin (Trent)

            Financial Disintermediation and Slow Economic Growth:
            The Mexican Case After the Foreign Debt Crisis of 1982
               Talan Iscan (Dalhousie)

            Debt Contracts, Stochastic Collateral and Credit
            Rationing in Emerging Financial Markets
               Robert Jones (Simon Fraser) et David Nickerson
               (American University, Washington)


10h20-11h50 MEASUREMENT ISSUES IN TAXATION / PROBLÈMES DE MESURE
            EN FISCALITÉR-R110
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Bev Dahlby (Alberta)

            Statistical Inference for the Measurement of
            Progressivity, Redistribution, and Horizontal Equity
               Russell Davidson (Aix-Marseille, France) et Jean-
               Yves Duclos (Laval)

            Measuring Tax Incidence with an Inflation-Adjusted
            Income Base
               Irwin Gillespie, Arndt Vermaeten (Carleton) et
               Frank Vermaeten (Finance Canada)

            On the Hopelessness of Inferring Changes in the Size
            of the Underground Economy from Estimates of Currency
            Demand
               Roderick Hill et Muhammed Kabir (New Brunswick)


10h15-12h   EFFECTS OF FISCAL DEFICITS / CONSÉQUENCES DES DÉFICITS
            BUDGÉTAIRES
R-2630
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Filip Palda (École nationale d'administration
               publique)

            Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits
            Hypothesis
               Michel Normandin (Québec à Montréal)

            Fiscal Deficits and Saving-Investment Dynamics: Some
            Time Series Evidence
               Saleh Amirkhalkhali, Atul Dar et Samad
               Amirkhalkhali (Saint Mary's)

            Budgetary Policy, Risk Premium and Fiscal Discipline:
            Empirical Evidence from Selected Canadian Provinces
               Simon Pintal, François Delorme (Finance Canada) et
               Marc Vanheukelen (European Commission)

            Are Provincial Budget Deficits Too Large? Evidence
            from Panel Data
               Mark Strazicich (Ohio State)


12h-13h30   EDITORIAL BOARD LUNCHEON OF THE CANADIAN JOURNAL OF
            ECONOMICS / DÉJEUNER DU COMITÉ DE RÉDACTION DE LA
            REVUE CANADIENNE D'ÉCONOMIQUE
A-1840
         For Board members / Pour les membres du Comité


13h-15h     CEA / CPSA PANEL: THE NEW ORTHODOXY IN ECONOMIC POLICY
            / LA NOUVELLE ORTHODOXIE EN POLITIQUE ÉCONOMIQUE
R-1190
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Duncan Cameron (Ottawa)

            PANELISTS / PARTICIPANTS:
               Marjorie Cohen (Simon Fraser)
               Thomas Courchene (Queen's)
               Richard Harris (Simon Fraser)



13h30-15h   PANEL: A CENTENARY ASSESSMENT OF W.A. MACKINTOSH'S
            LIFE AND LEGACY / L'HÉRITAGE DE W.A. MACKINTOSH
R-1885
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Alison Morgan (Queen's)

            PANELISTS / PARTICIPANTS:
               Malcolm Urqhart (Queen's)
               Mel Watkins (Toronto)
               Lars Osberg (Dalhousie)


13h30-15h   CEA / CSLS: THE CANADA-U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GAP II
            / L'ÉCART DE CHOMAGE ENTRE LE CANADA ET LES ÉTATS-UNIS
            II
R-M180
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               David Slater (Centre for the Study of Living
               Standards)

            Is the U.S.-Canada Unemployment Gap Truly Large? A
            Labour Flow Analysis
               Pierre-Yves Crémieux et Marc Van Audenrode (Québec
               à Montréal)

            A Comparative Analysis of Stocks and Flows of
            Unemployment in Canada and the United States
               Michael Baker (Toronto), Miles Corak et Andrew
               Heisz (Statistics Canada)

            The Canadian Labor Market: Sources of Shocks and
            Adjustment Mechanism
               Eswar Prasad et Alun Thomas (International Monetary
               Fund)

            DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRES:
               Stephen Jones (McMaster)
               Craig Riddell (British Columbia)


13h30-15h   POLICY ANALYSIS IN MALAYSIA AND THAILAND / ANALYSE DE
            POLITIQUES EN MALAISIE ET EN THAILANDE
R-1880
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Robin Boadway (Queen's)

            Reform of the Sales Tax System in Malaysia
               Peter Townley (Acadia) et Nasaruddin Arshad
               (Malaysian Institute of Economic Research)

            A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Tax Enforcement in Thailand
               Bev Dahlby (Alberta), Nipon Poapongsakorn (Thailand
               Development Research Institute), Kovit
               Charnvitayapong, Duangmanee Laovakul et Somchai
               Suksiriserekul (Thammasat University)

            The "Rationality" of Corruption: Voting and Taxation
            in Developing Countries
               Frank Flatters (Queen's) et Ammar Siamwalla
               (Thailand Development Research Institute)


13h30-15h   TRADE AND STRATEGIC BEHAVIOUR / COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL
            ET COMPORTEMENT STRATÉGIQUE
R-2630
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Prakash Sharma (Foreign Affairs and International
               Trade Canada)

            Strategic Enforcement and Redistribution in an
            Anarchic Global Environment
               Kenneth Chan (McMaster)

            Smuggling and the Non-Equivalence Between Tariffs and
            Quotas in the Presence of Monopoly Power in Domestic
            Production
               Harvey Lapan (Iowa State) et Bruno Larue (Laval)

            Gestion et évolution de la ferme laitière québécoise
            dans le contexte de la mondialisation des marchés
               Mario Roy et Jean-Bernard Carrière (Québec à Trois-
               Rivières)


13h30-15h   DEMOGRAPHY AND DEVELOPMENT / DÉMOGRAPHIE ET
            DÉVELOPPEMENT
R-2840
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Leonard Dudley (Montréal)

            A Contribution to the Theory of Demographic Transition
            in LDCs
               Mukesh Eswaran (British Columbia)

            Markets, Growth, Fertility and Urbanization
               Jie Zhang (Victoria)

            Determinants of Fertility in Vietnam
               Huan Nguyen-Dinh (McMaster)


13h30-15h   TAXATION OF CAPITAL / TAXATION DU CAPITAL
R-1170
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Larry McDonough (Royal Military College)

            An Empirical and GE Model Investigation of the Effects
            of Capital Taxation on Private Investment in Canada
               Steven James et Kurt Mang (Finance Canada)

            The Deadweight Loss of Capital Income Taxation in a
            Portfolio/Savings Model
               Syed Ahsan (Concordia) et Peter Tsigaris (Cariboo)


13h30-15h   INVESTMENT AND FIRM BEHAVIOUR / INVESTISSEMENT ET
            COMPORTEMENT DE L'ENTREPRISE
R-2930
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Dominique Demougin (Québec à Montréal)

            The Cost of Adjustment Model of Investment under
            Asymmetric Information
               Gérard Gaudet (Laval), Pierre Lasserre (Québec 
               à Montréal) et Ngo Van Long (McGill)

            The Implications of Parameter Uncertainty for
            Irreversible Investment Decisions
               Michael Sampson (Concordia)

            The Influence of the Macroeconomic Environment on the
            Enterprise
               John Norsworthy (Rensselaer Polytechnic) et Diana
               Tsai (Concordia)


13h30-15h   ADJUSTMENT TO EXCHANGE RATE SHOCKS / ADAPTATION AUX
            VARIATIONS DES TAUX DE CHANGE
R-R160
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Alain DeSerres (Finance Canada)

            Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Canadian Automotive
            Sector
               David Sabiston (Ottawa)

            The Comparative Effects of Exchange Rates and Interest
            Rates and Industry Specific Assistance Programs on
            Competitiveness: A Case Study of the Cattle and Beef
            Industries in Canada
               Sandy Greig, Ihn Ho Uhm (Canadian International
               Trade Tribunal), Hsin Huang et Bruce Huff
               (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)


13h30-15h   DISTRIBUTION THEORY / THÉORIE DE LA RÉPARTITION
R-2680
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Peter Wylie (Trent)

            Redistribution and the Valuation of Gains and Losses:
            Choices Behind the Veil of Ignorance
               E.W. Bukszar et Jack Knetsch (Simon Fraser)

            The Initial Resource Distribution in an Economic Model
            of Conflict
               Hugh Neary (British Columbia)


13h30-15h   HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOUR / COMPORTEMENT DES MÉNAGES
R-1860
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
               Lise Salvas-Bronsard (Montréal)

            Technology, Human Capital, and the Value of Household
            Output
               Tarek Harchaoui (Statistics Canada)

            Model Specification Issues in Consumer Demand Systems
            Using United States Microdata
               Christopher Nicol (Regina)


13h30-15h   MARKETS FOR NATURAL RESOURCES: GASOLINE AND LUMBER /
            MARCHÉS DE RESSOURCES NATURELLES: ESSENCE ET BOIS
            D'OEUVRE
R-R110
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               André Plourde (Ottawa)

            Demand for Motor Gasoline in OECD Countries
               Robert McRae (Calgary)

            An Integrated Model of Québec-Ontario-U.S. Northeast
            Softwood Lumber Markets
               Jean-Thomas Bernard, Luc Bouthillier, Jérôme
               Catimel et Nancy Gélinas (Laval)


15h20-16h50 UNCERTAINTY AND REVEALED PREFERENCES/ INCERTITUDE ET
            RÉVÉLATION DES PRÉFÉRENCES
R-2930
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Georges Dionne (Montréal)

            The Evolution of Decision Preferences: An Empirical
            Investigation by Means of Adaptive Modelling
               Bernhard Borges (Simon Fraser)

            Uncertainty Aversion and Rationality in Games of
            Perfect Information
               Chenghu Ma (McGill)

            A Reexamination of Gale's Example about Revealed
            Preference Theory
               Wusan Xi (Ottawa)


15h20-16h50 INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTION AND CONSUMPTION /
            SUBSTITUTION INTERTEMPORELLE ET CONSOMMATION
R-1170
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Louis Christofides (Guelph)

            Measuring the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution
            of Labour Supply: New Empirical Evidence and
            Macroeconomic Implications
               Humam Sakhnini (Finance Canada)

            Testing for Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics in Rational
            Expectations Permanent Income Hypothesis
               Saeed Moshiri (Manitoba)


15h20-16h50 PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY / INDUSTRIE PHARMACEUTIQUE
R-2840
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Judith Alexander (Copyright Board)

            Price Regulation of the Pharmaceutical Industry
               Aslam Anis (Ottawa) et Quan Wen (Windsor)

            Exploring Inertia: Organizational Failure and
            Governance Costs in Pharmaceutical Research
               Iain Cockburn (British Columbia) et Rebecca
               Henderson (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)


15h20-16h50 BASEBALL AND THE SERVICES INDUSTRY / BASEBALL ET
            INDUSTRIE DES SERVICES
R-R110
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Serge Coulombe (Ottawa)

            Hedonics, Implicit Markets, and Demand Analysis: The
            Implicit Demand for Baseball Player Characteristics
               Kenneth Stewart (Victoria)

            Les déterminants des échanges intra-industriels dans
            les services
               Emmanuel Nyahoho (École nationale d'administration
               publique)


15h20-16h50 RECYCLING / RECYCLAGE
R-1885
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               Denise Jarvinen (Woods Hole Oceanographic
               Institution, Massachusetts)

            Recycled-Content Standards in Open Economies with
            Imperfect Competition
               Nancy Carson (Toronto)

            Could There Be an Optimal Level of Recycling?
               Fidel Ezeala-Harrison (New Brunswick)


15h20-16h50 BLACK MARKETS FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE / MARCHÉS NOIRS DE
            DEVISES ÉTRANGÈRES
R-R160
            CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
               André Martens (Montréal)

            The Dynamics of the Devaluation/Inflation Cycle in
            Parallel Markets for Foreign Exchange
               Ibrahim Onour (Manitoba)

            Cointegration of the Black Market Premium with Real
            and Monetary Shocks in Pre- and Post-Revolutionary
            Iran
               Kazem Yavari (Toronto)


15h30-17h30 EXECUTIVE COUNCIL MEETING / RÉUNION DU CONSEIL DE
            DIRECTION
R-5460


        For Council members / Pour les membres du Conseil