Canadian Economic Association
Annual 29th Annual Meeting
2-4 JUNE 1995
PRELIMINARY PROGRAMME
PROGRAMME PRÉLIMINAIRE
2, 3 ET 4 JUIN 1995
29ème Congrès annuel de
l'Association
canadienne d'économique
WHAT'S NEW THIS YEAR? / QUOI DE NEUF CETTE ANNÉE?
The 1995 programme reflects the maturity and the
diversity of the economics discipline in Canada. We want the annual
meetings to remain wide and open to members of our Association.
This year, there are 130 sessions and 350 papers presented in the
usual three days, in sharp expansion from the 180 papers of only
five years ago. This means that the time allocated to most
individual presentations and sessions has to be severely limited.
After some consultations with members, we have decided to cut down
the number of formal discussants to one or even zero in most
sessions. This is in the interest of providing breathing space and
of saving and fostering exchanges with the audience. In other
words, this year the sessions are to be run more like seminars than
like one-sided discussions between authors and discussants. The
valuable Canadian research seminars (e.g. in macroeconomics, labour
economics, public economics, economic theory, econometrics, and
resources and environment) that have emerged in recent years are
thus increasingly taking over the function of formal discussion
previously devoted to the annual general meetings. Only practice
will tell whether this is sound division of labour. We invite all
participants to make their views on this year's format of the
annual meetings known to members of the Executive Council of the
Association, and particularly to the programme chair of 1996, Robin
Boadway.
Le programme du congrès de 1995 témoigne de la maturité
et de la diversité maintenant acquises par la science économique au
Canada. Nous désirons que le congrès continue de d'être ouvert à
l'ensemble des membres de notre association. Cette année, les trois
jours habituels comprennent 130 séances et 350 communications, ce
qui constitue une forte progression par rapport aux 180
communications d'il y a cinq ans seulement. Cela signifie toutefois
que le temps imparti à la plupart des séances et des communications
doit être rigoureusement limité. Après consultation des membres,
nous avons décidé de réduire le nombre de commentateurs formels à
un seul ou même de n'en désigner aucun dans la plupart des séances.
Cela donnera du temps pour respirer et, surtout, pour préserver et
stimuler les échanges avec l'auditoire. En d'autres mots, les
séances de cette année ressembleront plus à des séminaires qu'à des
échanges unilatéraux entre auteurs et commentateurs. Les séminaires
canadiens de recherche (par ex. en macroéconomie, en économie du
travail, en économie publique, en théorie économique, en
économétrie et en ressources et environnement) qui ont pris leur
essor au cours des dernières années remplissent de plus en plus la
fonction critique formelle autrefois dévolue au congrès annuel.
Seule l'expérience et la pratique diront si cette division du
travail est bénéfique. Nous invitons tous les participants à faire
connaître leur point de vue sur la forme du congrès de cette année
aux membres du Conseil de direction de l'association, tout
particulièrement au responsable du programme de 1996, Robin
Boadway.
WHERE TO GO? / OÙ SE RENDRE?
Unless otherwise indicated, all sessions are held in the Pavillon
des sciences de la gestion (Management Science Building) of UQAM
at:
315 Sainte Catherine East
All rooms in this building begin with an R, followed by the floor
level: M (metro level), R (ground floor), 1, 2, etc. Some
activities are scheduled to take place in other nearby buildings:
Jasmin (J), David (D), Aquin (A), or Education (N).
À moins d'indication contraire, toutes les séances du congrès ont
lieu au Pavillon des sciences de la gestion de l'UQAM situé au:
315 est, rue Sainte-Catherine
Toutes les salles de ce pavillon commencent par la lettre R, suivie
du niveau: M (niveau métro), R (rez-de-chaussée), 1, 2, etc.
Certaines activités ont lieu tout près, aux Pavillons Jasmin (J),
David (D), Aquin (A) ou de l'éducation (N).
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THURSDAY JUNE 1 / JEUDI 1er JUIN
15h-18h EXECUTIVE COUNCIL MEETING / RÉUNION DU CONSEIL DE
DIRECTION
R-5460
For Council members / Pour les membres du Conseil
18h30 PAST PRESIDENTS' DINNER / DÎNER DES ANCIENS PRÉSIDENTS
Hôtel des
Gouverneurs
18h30 Cocktails / Réception
19h Dinner / Dîner
For past presidents and Executive Council members / Pour les
anciens présidents et les membres du Conseil de direction
---------------------------------------------------------------------
FRIDAY JUNE 2 / VENDREDI 2 JUIN
8h15-10h15 NAFTA / L'ALÉNA
R-M150
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Ronald Wonnacott (Western Ontario)
On the Design and Evaluation of Regional Trade
Agreements
Ronald Wonnacott (Western Ontario)
Conflits dans l'application du code anti-dumping et
usage de modèles économiques
Benoît-Mario Papillon (UQTR)
Data Construction to Compare the Structure of
Production in Canadian and U.S. Manufacturing
Industries: Measurement and Analysis after NAFTA
John Norsworthy (Rensselaer Polytechnic), Catherine
Morrison (Tufts) et Diana Tsai (Concordia)
Competition and Trade Policy Interface: Abuse of
Dominant Position
Prakash Sharma (Foreign Affairs and International
Trade Canada)
DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
Michael Hart (Foreign Affairs and International
Trade Canada)
Roma Dauphin (Sherbrooke)
8h30-10h THEORY OF MARKETS I / THÉORIE DES MARCHÉS I
R-R160
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Ken Hendricks (British Columbia)
The Evolution of Communication
Jasmina Arifovic et Curtis Eaton (Simon Fraser)
An Economic Analysis of Moral Conventions
Louis Corriveau (Ottawa)
On Costs of Bargaining and the Characteristics of a
Market
Robert Cairns (McGill)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Patrick Gonzalez (Montréal)
8h30-10h FOREIGN AID / AIDE EXTÉRIEURE
R-2930
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Jean-Louis Arcand (Montréal)
A Model of Tied and Untied Foreign Aid
Mak Arvin (Trent) et Christopher Baum (Boston
College)
Externalities of Foreign Aid on the Private Sector:
Evidence from Afro-Asian Countries
Muhammed Nurul Islam (Concordia)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Talan Iscan (Dalhousie)
8h30-10h STATISTICAL INFERENCE I / INFÉRENCE STATISTIQUE I
R-R140
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
James MacKinnon (Queen's)
Constrained Quasi-Likelihood Estimation and Projection
Gordon Fisher (Concordia)
The Second-Order Bias and Mean Squared Error of
Nonlinear Estimators
Paul Rilstone (Laval), V.K. Srivastava (Lucknow) et
Aman Ullah (California at Riverside)
Finite Sample Inference Methods in Seemingly Unrelated
Regressions and Simultaneous Equations
Jean-Marie Dufour et Linda Khalaf (Montréal)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Éric Ghysels (Montréal)
8h30-10h PRODUCTIVITY AND FACTOR DEMAND / PRODUCTIVITÉ ET
DEMANDE DE FACTEURS DE PRODUCTION
R-2840
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Pierre Ouellette (Québec à Montréal)
Piece Rates and Worker Productivity: Statistical
Evidence from the Tree Planting Industry
Harry Paarsch (Western Ontario) et Bruce Shearer
(Laval)
Real Wages and Labour Productivity in Canada: A
Cointegration Analysis
Doug Hostland (Human Resources Development Canada)
Using Mixtures of Functional Forms to Estimate Factor
Demand Elasticities
Stephen Gordon (Laval)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Robert Amano (Bank of Canada)
8h30-10h UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE I / ASSURANCE-CHÔMAGE I
R-1880
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Miles Corak (Statistics Canada)
Jobs Excluded from the UI System in Canada: Evidence,
Determinants and Impacts of Coverage Extension
Zhengxi Lin (Statistics Canada)
Impacts of Changes in UI Contributions and Maximum
Insurable Earnings: A General Equilibrium Model
Émile Allie (Human Resources Development Canada)
The Static Efficiency Effects of the Non Experience-
Rated Characteristics of the Canadian UI System
Louis Beauséjour, Munir Sheikh et Baxter Williams
(Finance Canada)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Michael Shannon (Lakehead)
8h30-10h RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE / ÉQUIVALENCE RICARDIENNE
R-R110
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
David Johnson (Wilfrid Laurier)
Private Information, Government Deficits, and
Ricardian Equivalence
Daniel Richards (Tufts)
Are Consumers Ricardian When Some Are Liquidity
Constrained? Evidence for the United States
Duane Rockerbie (Lethbridge)
Ricardian Equivalence and the Ricardian Vice
Nancy Churchman (Windsor)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Michel Normandin (Québec à Montréal)
8h30-10h ECONOMIC FORECASTING / PRÉVISION ÉCONOMIQUE
R-1190
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Michael McCracken (Informetrica)
Who Forecasts Best in the Private Sector?
Bryan Campbell (Concordia) et Steve Murphy
(Toronto)
Improved Composite Indexes of Leading Indicators to
Signal Turning Points in G7 Business Cycles
Vincent Lépine et Robert Lamy (Finance Canada)
Un indicateur synthétique avancé de l'économie
canadienne selon la méthode de Stock et Watson
Luc Bergeron, Yvon Fauvel et Alain Paquet (Québec à
Montréal)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Jacques Raynauld (Hautes Études Commerciales)
8h30-10h AIRLINE INDUSTRY / INDUSTRIE DU TRANSPORT AÉRIEN
R-1885
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Michel Patry (Hautes Études Commerciales)
Bankruptcy Protection and Pricing Strategies in the
U.S. Airline Industry
Philippe Barla (Laval) et Bonchun Koo (Cornell)
Airline Capacity and Capital Structure
Tae Oum (British Columbia), Anming Zhang (Victoria)
et Yimin Zhang (New Brunswick)
Debt, Moral Hazard and Airline Safety: An Empirical
Evidence
Georges Dionne, Robert Gagné, François Gagnon et
Charles Vanasse (Montréal)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Patrick Petit (Québec à Montréal)
8h30-10h HOUSING MARKET / MARCHÉ DU LOGEMENT
R-1860
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Sam Bucovetsky (York)
Determinants of Buyer Search in a Housing Market
Paul Anglin (Windsor)
The Impact on the Urban Environment of Incomplete
Property Rights
Michael Hoy (Guelph) et Emmanuel Jimenez (World
Bank)
Econometric Methods in Fair Lending
Marsha Courchane et William Lang (Office of the
Comptroller of the Currency, Washington)
A Stock-Flow Approach to Housing Market Equilibrium
Analysis: Theory and Evidence
Ho-Cheung Ho (Toronto)
8h30-10h CORPORATE FINANCE / FINANCE CORPORATIVE
R-1170
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Robert Vigfusson (Bank of Canada)
Evidence on Corporate Private Debt Finance and the
Term Structure of Interest Rates
Camille Bronsard (Montréal), F. Rosenwald (INSEE)
et Lise Salvas-Bronsard (Montréal)
An Analysis of Venture Capital Contracts
Baogui Wang (Toronto)
An Empirical Estimation of the Profit Maximization
Hypothesis: The Case of Canadian International Banking
Jixin Xu (Malaspina)
8h30-10h MANAGING THE COMMONS / GESTION DE LA PROPRIÉTÉ COMMUNE
R-2680
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Pierre Lasserre (Québec à Montréal)
Institutional Dynamics and the Regulation of Fisheries
Melvin Cross (Queen's), Leigh Mazany (Dalhousie) et
Anthony Charles (Saint Mary's)
The Effect of Jurisdictional Uncertainty on
Environmental Quality Management
Patricia Koss (Guelph)
Privatising the Commons: Changes in Efficiency with
Transferable Property Rights
Quentin Grafton (Ottawa)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Nguyen Manh Hung (Laval)
9h30-11h30 CEA / IRPP PANEL: THE FISCAL FUTURE OF CITY-REGIONS /
AVENIR FISCAL DES RÉGIONS MÉTROPOLITAINES
R-R130
CHAIR / CO-PRÉSIDENTS:
France Saint-Hilaire (Institute for Research on
Public Policy) et Paul Hobson (Acadia)
Finance and Governance: The Case of the Greater
Toronto Area
Enid Slack (Enid Slack Consulting)
Financing Municipal Infrastructure in Canada's City-
Regions
Almos Tassonyi (Ontario Ministry of Municipal
Affairs)
Pricing Local Government Services
Harry Kitchen (Trent)
Taxation and Expenditure Patterns in Major City-
Regions: An International Perspective and Lessons for
Canada
Mel McMillan (Alberta)
10h20-11h50 CEA / CABE PANEL: THE FUTURE ROLE OF BUSINESS
ECONOMISTS / L'AVENIR DE L'ÉCONOMISTE PROFESSIONNEL
R-M150
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Angela Tu Weissenberger (Royal Bank of Canada)
The Influence of Economists in Organizations
Roger Belland (Alberta Power) et Vinay Bhardwaj
(Canadian Utilities)
Educating Economists for Noneconomic Jobs
John Hoicka (Ontario Treasury)
OTHER PANELISTS / AUTRES PARTICIPANTS:
Dale Orr (Consulting Economist)
Carl Beigie (Canadian Foundation for Economic
Education)
10H20-11H50 PANEL: ECONOMIC AND FISCAL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST TEN
YEARS / LA PRÉVISION ÉCONOMIQUE ET FISCALE DANS LA
DERNIÈRE DÉCENNIE
R-1190
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Catherine Harris (Investment Executive)
PANELISTS / PANÉLISTES:
Rick Egelton (Finance Canada)
Leo de Bever (Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board)
Thomas Wilson (Toronto)
Mervin Daub (Queen's)
10h20-12h15 PUBLIC GOODS / BIENS PUBLICS
R-R160
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Peter Townley (Acadia)
The Public Good Aspect of Quality in Excludable Non-
Rival Goods
Michael Krashinsky (Toronto)
Homogeneity and the Voluntary Provision of Public
Goods
Kenneth Chan et Stuart Mestelman (McMaster)
Profitable Nonprofit Firms
Marc Bilodeau (Sherbrooke) et Al Slivinski (Western
Ontario)
Voluntary Contributions to Group Goods: Generosity or
Attempted Cooperation?
Robert Moir (McMaster)
10h20-11h50 CEA / CWEN: CHILD CARE / GARDE DES ENFANTS
R-1170
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Victoria Barham (Ottawa)
The Impact of Child Care Costs on Female Labour Supply
and the Choice of Care: Evidence from Canada
Lisa Powell (Queen's)
L'effet des politiques de financement des services de
garde sur le choix des modalités de garde des familles
québécoises
Francine Mayer, Diane Richard et Ruth Rose (Québec
à Montréal)
Child Care and Work Decisions of Lone Parent Mothers
Gordon Cleveland et Doug Hyatt (Toronto)
10h20-11h50 R&D AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH / R-D ET CROISSANCE ENDOGÈNE
R-R110
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Julian Betts (California at San Diego)
Innovative vs. Imitative R&D and Economic Growth
Jing Zeng (Western Ontario)
R&D, Interindustry and International Spillovers of
Technology, and the Total Factor Productivity Growth
of Manufacturing Industries in Canada, 1974-1989
Petr Hanel (Sherbrooke)
Endogenous Growth and Sectoral Composition of
Production
Shamika Sirimanne (Carleton)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Arun Mukhopadhyay (Saint Mary's)
10h20-12h15 EMISSION PERMITS / PERMIS D'ÉMISSION
R-1880
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
John Livernois (Guelph)
Is Emission Permits Trading Superior to Command and
Control Instrument?
Nguyen Manh Hung (Laval) et Eftichios Sartzetakis
(British Columbia)
Simulated Emissions Trading Markets
Charles Mallory (Consulting and Audits Canada) et
Elizabeth Wilman (Calgary)
Strategic Manipulation of Pollution Permit Markets: An
Experimental Approach
Jamie Brown-Kruse (Colorado at Boulder), Steven
Elliott (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) and Robert
Godby (McMaster)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Quentin Grafton (Ottawa)
10h20-11h50 FINANCIAL MARKETS I / MARCHÉS FINANCIERS I
R-2930
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Pascal Saint-Amour (Laval)
Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists
Robert Vigfusson (Bank of Canada)
GARCH and Markov Hedging at the Winnipeg Commodity
Exchange
Peter Sephton (New Brunswick)
The Integration of International Equity Markets: An
Empirical Study
Amanda Lu (Carleton)
10h20-11h50 REGIONAL TRADE AND GROWTH / COMMERCE INTERRÉGIONAL ET
CROISSANCE
R-R140
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Tim Hazledine (Auckland, New Zealand)
Long-run Regional Growth and Economic Convergence in
Canada
Serge Coulombe (Ottawa) et Frank Lee (Industry
Canada)
Do National Borders Matter for Quebec's Trade?
John Helliwell (British Columbia)
Economic Interdependence Underlying Interprovincial
Trade in Canada
Sundar Magum (Carleton) et Hans Messinger
(Statistics Canada)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Manfred Keil (Northeastern, Boston)
10h20-11h50 ECONOMIC HISTORY / HISTOIRE ÉCONOMIQUE
R-1860
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Fazley Siddiq (Dalhousie)
The Clear-cutting of the Forest of the Lower Fraser
Basin, 1900-1940
Ronald Shearer et John Sproul (British Columbia)
Employment Duration at the Ford Motor Company, 1917-
1943
Warren Whatley (Michigan) et Stanley Sedo (New
Hampshire)
The Wealth of the Irish in 19th Century Ontario
Livio Di Matteo (Lakehead)
10h20-11h50 EXCHANGE RATE MODELS / MODÉLISATION DES TAUX DE CHANGE
R-2680
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Victoria Miller (Québec à Montréal)
An Extended Model of Expected Devaluations in the ERM
Christos Paraskevopoulos (York)
The Monetary Exchange Rate Model under the Null
Hypothesis of Cointegration
David Cushman (Saskatchewan)
European Exchange Rates and the Target Zone Model
Patrick Crowley (Saint Mary's)
10h20-11h50 ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY / INDUSTRIE DE L'ÉLECTRICITÉR-2840
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Christopher Green (McGill)
The Regressivity of Marginal Cost Pricing of
Electricity
Jean-Thomas Bernard et Éric Genest-Laplante (Laval)
The Role of Wind Energy in a Predominantly Electric
Grid: An Application to Hydro Québec
Sylvie Marceau (Laval)
Electricity Prices and Elections in Québec
Jean-Thomas Bernard, Stephen Gordon et Josée
Tremblay (Laval)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Robert Cairns (McGill)
10h20-11h50 MEASUREMENT OF PRODUCTIVITY / MESURE DE LA
PRODUCTIVITÉR-1885
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
David Andolfatto (Simon Fraser)
Mesure de la croissance de la productivité dans un
cadre d'équilibre général: l'économie du Québec entre
1978 et 1984
Pierre Mohnen (Québec à Montréal)
Issues on the Measurement of the Solow Residual and
the Testing of its Exogeneity: A Tale of Two Countries
Alain Paquet (Québec à Montréal) et Benoît Robidoux
(Finance Canada)
Inferring Technological Parameters from Incomplete
Panel Data
Georges Dionne (Montréal), Robert Gagné (Hautes
Études Commerciales) et Charles Vanasse (Montréal)
12h-13h30 EDITORIAL BOARD LUNCHEON OF CANADIAN PUBLIC POLICY /
DÉJEUNER DU COMITÉ DE RÉDACTION D'ANALYSE DE
POLITIQUES
N-8510
For Board members / Pour les membres du Comité
12h-13h30 LUNCHEON OF THE CANADIAN WOMEN ECONOMISTS NETWORK
(CWEN)/ DÉJEUNER DU RÉSEAU CANADIEN DES FEMMES
ÉCONOMISTES
A-R415
Reasonable price. Number of places limited to 30.
Prix modeste. Pas plus que 30 places disponibles.
13h30-15h SOCIAL CHOICE AND AUCTIONS / CHOIX SOCIAUX ET ENCHÈRES
R-2930
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Curtis Eaton (Simon Fraser)
A Borda Measure for Social Choice Functions
Michel LeBreton (Aix-Marseille) et Michel Truchon
(Laval)
Paternalism and the Credibility Problem in a Centrally
Planned Economy
Ruvin Gekker (York)
Sequential, Oral, Ascending-price, Open-exit Auctions
with Multi-unit Demand and an Application to the Sale
of Siberian Timber Export Permits
Harry Paarsch (Western Ontario) et Jacques Robert
(Montréal)
13h30-15h TIME SERIES ANALYSIS I / SÉRIES TEMPORELLES I
R-1885
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Serena Ng (Montréal)
Numerical Distribution Functions of Unit Root and
Cointegration Tests
James MacKinnon (Queen's)
The Power of Cointegration Tests: Does the Frequency
of Observation Matter?
Alfred Haug (York)
A Test of Efficiency for the Currency Option Market
Using Stochastic Volatility Forecasts
Dajiang Guo (Toronto)
13h30-15h CEA / CPA: IMMIGRATION I / IMMIGRATION I
R-R140
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
David Green (British Columbia)
Estimating the Effects of Immigration on Wages in
Canada
Samuel Laryea (Simon Fraser)
Immigrant Earnings in Canada, 1982-1991
David Prescott et Bo Wandschneider (Guelph)
The Relative Performance of Immigrants in Norway,
1980-1990
John Ebenezer Hayfron (University of Bergen,
Norway)
DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
E. Ruddick (Citizenship and Immigration Canada)
Tim Fisher (Wilfrid Laurier)
S. Fagnan (Fisheries and Oceans Canada)
13h30-15h HEALTH ECONOMICS / ÉCONOMIE DE LA SANTÉ R-R110
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
André-Pierre Contandriopoulos (Montréal)
HIV/AIDS Dynamics in a Model with Rational Agents
Christopher Auld (Queen's)
On Turning 65 in British Columbia: Effects of
Prescription Drug Insurance Eligibility on
Prescription Drug Utilization
Paul Grootendorst (McMaster)
Recruiting Registered Nurses: Effective Spending on
Recruitment Strategies
Chris Brown Mahoney (Metropolitan State University,
Minneapolis)
13h30-15h15 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE II / ASSURANCE-CHÔMAGE II
R-1190
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Bentley MacLeod (Montréal)
UI, Recall Biases, and Spikes: The Wake-up Call Theory
Jonathan Leonard (California at Berkeley) et Marc
Van Audenrode (Laval)
Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Duration
Michael Kidd (Tasmania) et Michael Shannon
(Lakehead)
Unemployment Insurance, Labor Market Dynamics, and
Social Welfare
David Andolfatto et Paul Gomme (Simon Fraser)
An Index of the Generosity of Unemployment Insurance
Timothy Sargent (Finance Canada)
13h30-15h LABOUR MARKET POLICIES / POLITIQUES RELATIVES AU
MARCHÉ DU TRAVAIL
R-1170
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Garnett Picot (Statistics Canada)
A Macroeconomic Analysis of Marginal Employment
Subsidies
William Scarth (McMaster)
Est-ce que le chômage partiel peut sauvegarder des
emplois?
David Gray et Erdal Atukeren (Ottawa)
13h30-15h EXPECTED INFLATION AND REAL ACTIVITY / ATTENTES
INFLATIONNISTES ET ÉCONOMIE RÉELLE
R-R160
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Alain Paquet (Québec à Montréal)
The Adjustment of Inflation Expectations in Canada,
1988-1994
David Johnson (Wilfrid Laurier)
Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Real Activity
and Inflation: A Multivariate Analysis
Ben Kwok et Pierre Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier)
Regime Switching Models of Expected Inflation and Real
Interest Rates
Nicholas Ricketts (Bank of Canada)
13h30-15h AGGREGATE MANUFACTURING / SECTEUR MANUFACTURIER
R-2840
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Surendra Gera (Industry Canada)
Economies of Scale in Canadian Manufacturing: An
Interprovincial Comparison
Michael Benarroch (Winnipeg)
Restructuring in the Canadian Manufacturing Sector
from 1970 to 1990: Industry and Regional Dimensions of
Job Turnover
John Baldwin et Mohammed Rafiquzzaman (Statistics
Canada)
Labour-Services Complementarity and Technical Change
Biases in Aggregate U.S. Manufacturing
Jack Parkinson (Toronto)
13h30-15h FINANCIAL HISTORY / HISTOIRE FINANCIÈRE
R-1860
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Benoît-Mario Papillon (Québec à Trois-Rivières)
Wesley Mitchell and Irving Fisher on Greenback/Gold
Returns, 1862-1879
Gregor Smith et Todd Smith (Queen's)
The Montreal Call Loan Rate and Chartered Bank
Reserves
Kieran Furlong (Toronto)
Bank Chartering and Bank Failure, 1914-1934
Mark Flood (Concordia) et Simon Kwan (Arizona)
13h30-15h THE NEW ZEALAND AND ALBERTA EXPERIMENTS / LES
EXPÉRIENCES NÉO-ZÉLANDAISE ET ALBERTAINE
R-M150
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Thomas Wilson (Toronto)
Employment, Taxes and Welfare in New Zealand: Then and
Now
Tim Hazledine (Auckland, New Zealand)
Shocks to the New Zealand Economy: A Simple Growth
Model
W. Razzak (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Can Alberta's Deficit Reduction Model Be Exported?
Mark Dickerson (Calgary) et Greg Flanagan (Mount
Royal)
13h30-15h RURAL ECONOMICS IN LDCs I / ÉCONOMIE RURALE DANS LES
PVD I
R-2680
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Paul-Martel Roy (Québec à Montréal)
Testing Separation in Agricultural Household Models:
The Effect of Rainfall on Household Composition
Franque Grimard (McGill)
The Dynamics of Rural Poverty in Growing Low Income
Economies
Désiré Vencatachellum (Hautes Études Commerciales)
The Joint Agriculture-Health-Nutrition Technology in
Developing Countries
Christophe Muller (Laval)
13h30-15h CEA / CABE PANEL: ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF SMALL AND
NEWLY CREATED NATIONS / RENDEMENT ÉCONOMIQUE DES PETIS
PAYS NOUVELLEMENT FORMÉS
R-R130
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Chris Lawless (B.C. Ministry of Finance and
Corporate Relations)
PANELISTS / PARTICIPANTS:
John McClaughrey (Ethan Allen Institute)
John Helliwell (British Columbia)
Yuri Maltsev (Carthage College)
14h30-16h30 CEA / CEANA: EXCHANGE RATES AND FINANCIAL MARKETS IN
EAST ASIAN ECONOMIES / TAUX DE CHANGE ET MARCHÉS
FINANCIERS EN EXTRÊME-ORIENT
R-1880
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Kenneth Chan (McMaster)
Exchange Rate Appreciation and Export Competitiveness
in Singapore: The Flaws of Policy Generalization
T. Abeysinghe et L.Y. Tan (NUS, Singapore)
Understanding East Asian Real Exchange Rates
P. Liu et J. Devereux (Miami)
Tests of Reliability of Share Price Forecast Models
Using Price/Earning Multiples in a Developing Asian
Market
M.H. Ngerng (NUS, Singapore)
The Aftermarket Performance of Initial Public
Offerings in Korea
J.B. Kim (Concordia), I. Krinsky et J. Lee
(McMaster)
DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
Sheng-Cheng Hu (Purdue)
J.B. Kim (Concordia)
M.H. Ngerng (NUS, Singapore)
15h20-16h50 CEA / CPA: IMMIGRATION II / IMMIGRATION II
R-R140
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Don DeVoretz (Simon Fraser)
Occupational Mobility of the Foreign Born
David Green (British Columbia)
The Determinants of Industrial Employment by
Immigrants
C. McDonald et Pierre Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier)
How Do We Go in Exchange for What? An Hedonic Model of
Migration with Implications on the Distance Variable
J. Heinrichs (Simon Fraser)
DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
Daniel Schwanen (C.D. Howe)
Gilles Grenier (Ottawa)
Christopher Nicol (Regina)
15h20-16h50 COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC POLICY / ANALYSE
AVANTAGES-COUTS DE POLITIQUES PUBLIQUES
R-1170
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Almos Tassonyi (Ontario Ministry of Municipal
Affairs)
A Tale of Two Parkades: The Role of Cost-Benefit
Analysis in Public Policy
Peter Wylie (Trent)
The Private Sector Role in Financing of Postsecondary
Education
Lawrence McDonough (Royal Military College) et
Roger Wright (Singapore)
A Test of Public Capital Efficiency
Glen Otto et Graham Voss (New South Wales)
15h20-16h50 CANADIAN INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE AND TECHNOLOGY /
STRUCTURE INDUSTRIELLE ET TECHNOLOGIE AU CANADA
R-M150
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Pierre Mohnen (Québec à Montréal)
Canadian Industrial Performance: A Quantitative
Assessment of High-Knowledge Industries versus Low-
Knowledge Industries
Handan Has et Frank Lee (Industry Canada)
Changing Industrial Structure and Growth in Canada
Surendra Gera (Industry Canada) et Kurt Mang
(Finance Canada)
The Skill Bias of Technological Change in Canadian
Manufacturing Industries
Julian Betts (California at San Diego)
15h20-16h50 THE CONSUMER AND THE ENVIRONMENT / LE CONSOMMATEUR ET
L'ENVIRONNEMENT
R-1190
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Jim Johnson (McMaster)
The Effect of Ambiguity on Consumers' Willingness to
Pay for Pesticide-Residue Certification on Apples
Jennifer Wohl (British Columbia) et Eileen van
Ravenswaay (Michigan State)
Economic and Sociological Factors Influencing the
Willingness to Pay for Water Quality Enhancement:
Results from a Contingent Valuation Survey
James Brox, Ramesh Kumar, Ken Stollery, John Goyder
et Keith Warriner (Waterloo)
Exhaustible Resource Pricing and Consumption: Time-
Series Tests of a Generalized Expected Utility Model
Lars Olson et Perry Sadorsky (York)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRE:
Andrew Muller (McMaster)
15h20-16h50 BANK BEHAVIOUR / COMPORTEMENT DES BANQUES
R-1885
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
David Nickerson (American University, Washington)
Credit Risk and Credit Rationing
Robert Jones (Simon Fraser)
An Empirical Test of Signalling in Free Banking: The
Case of Hong Kong
Kam Hon Chu (Concordia)
Seasonal Offering and Option Trading by Investment
Banks
Joseph Fong (Queen's)
15h20-16h50 ECONOMIC THOUGHT / PENSÉE ÉCONOMIQUE
R-2680
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Melvin Cross (Queen's)
The "New Institutionalism" and the Theory of the Firm
Larry Levine (New Brunswick)
Modern Free Banking and Adam Smith
Theresa Chudy (Industry Canada) et Jack Galbraith
(Carleton)
Development and the Round-Aboutness of Production
Gordon Anderson et Peter Ibbott (Toronto)
15h20-16h50 INTEREST RATES IN CANADA / TAUX D'INTÉRÊT AU CANADA
R-R130
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Stephen Poloz (Bank of Canada)
The Determinants of Interest Rates in the Seventies,
Eighties, and Nineties
Gideon Rosenbluth (British Columbia)
Decomposing the Canada-U.S. Interest Rate
Differential: Is It Risk?
Claude Lavoie (Finance Canada)
Is the Canadian Real Interest Rate Stable?
Werner Schüle et Chris Matier (Finance Canada)
15h20-16h50 AGGREGATE LABOUR MARKETS IN CANADA / ASPECTS
MACROÉCONOMIQUES DU MARCHÉ DU TRAVAIL AU CANADA
R-R110
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
William Scarth (McMaster)
Wage Determination in Canada
Christian Dea et Benoît Robidoux (Finance Canada)
Asymmetric Adjustment and Aggregate Labour Demand:
Empirical Evidence for Canada
Robert Amano et Leo Butler (Bank of Canada)
15h20-16h50 CHANGING LABOUR MARKETS / TRANSFORMATIONS DU MARCHÉ DU
TRAVAIL
R-R160
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Marsha Courchane (Office of Comptroller of
Currency, Washington)
The Changing Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the
Canadian Economy
Andrew Heisz (Statistics Canada)
A Duration Model of Moonlighting
Jean Kimmel (Upjohn Institute) et Karen Conway (New
Hampshire)
15h20-16h50 NEUTRALITY OF MONEY / NEUTRALITÉ DE LA MONNAIE
R-2930
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Michael Bordo (Rutgers)
International Evidence on the Neutrality of Money
Apostolos Serletis et David Krause (Calgary)
Testing the Validity of Long-Run Neutrality
Propositions: The Case of Canada
Zisimos Koustas (Brock)
Does Money Induce Demand Shocks?
Kiseok Lee (Missouri)
15h20-16h50 THEORY OF MARKETS II / THÉORIE DES MARCHÉS II
R-2840
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Harry Paarsch (Western Ontario)
The Rational Expectations Function
Camille Bronsard, Lise Salvas-Bronsard (Montréal)
et Alain Trognon (ENSAÉ)
Equilibrium for Financial Markets with Discontinuous
Preferences
Osamu Ishimoto (Windsor)
Doubly Implementing the Equitable and Efficient
Solutions
Sang-Chul Suh (Windsor)
17h-18h15 HAROLD INNIS LECTURE / CONFÉRENCE HAROLD INNIS
J-M415
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Pierre Fortin (Québec à Montréal)
SPEAKER / CONFÉRENCIER:
Leonard Dudley (Montréal)
TITLE / TITRE:
Space, Time, Number: Harold Innis as Evolutionary
Theorist
18h30-19h30 RECEPTION HOSTED BY THE RECTOR OF UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC
À MONTRÉAL / RÉCEPTION DU RECTEUR DE L'UNIVERSITÉ DU
QUÉBEC À MONTRÉAL
D-COUR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
SATURDAY JUNE 3 / SAMEDI 3 JUIN
8h30-10h30 CEA / C.D. HOWE INSTITUTE / OECD: INTERNATIONAL
INVESTMENT, MARKET ACCESS, AND MULTILATERAL RULES I /
INVESTISSEMENT ÉTRANGER, ACCÈS AUX MARCHÉS ET RÈGLES
MULTILATÉRALES I
R-1880
WELCOME / MOT DE BIENVENUE:
Angela Ferrante (C.D. Howe Institute)
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Pierre Pettigrew (International Relations and Trade
Consultant, Montreal)
Market Access Through Market Presence: New Directions
in Investment Rule-Making
Pierre Sauvé (OECD)
Investment and the New Multilateral Trade Context
Edward Graham (Institute for International
Economics, Washington)
Conceptual Framework for a Multilateral Investment
Agreement (MIA)
Alan Rugman (Toronto)
DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
Michael Hart (Foreign Affairs and International
Trade Canada)
Steven Canner (U.S. Council for International
Business, Washington)
Daniel Schwanen (C.D. Howe Institute)
8h30-10h ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT / MESURE DES GRANDEURS
ÉCONOMIQUES
R-1885
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Nicholas Ricketts (Bank of Canada)
Aggregate Price Level and True Cost-of-Living Index
Wusan Xi (Ottawa)
Microeconomic Foundations for the Theory of
International Comparisons
Keir Armstrong (British Columbia)
The Sensitivity of the Distribution of Income to
Alternative Definitions of Income
Fazley Siddiq (Dalhousie)
8h30-10h STATISTICAL INFERENCE II / INFÉRENCE STATISTIQUE II
R-R160
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Victoria Zinde-Walsh (McGill)
Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown
Breakpoint
Éric Ghysels (Montréal), Alain Guay (Bank of
Canada) et Alastair Hall (North Carolina State)
Testing Homogeneity in the Linearized Almost Ideal
Demand System
Adolf Buse (Alberta)
8h30-10h ECONOMICS OF CHILDREN / ÉCONOMIE DES FLOTS
R-1170
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Guy Lacroix (Laval)
Determinants of the Spell of Non-Participation
Following Childbirth for Canadian Women
Christian Belzil et Padma Rao Sahib (Concordia)
Investing in Children's Altruism
Jerzy Konieczny (Wilfrid Laurier)
The Effects of Declining Earnings of Young Workers on
Poverty among Young Families and Children
John Miles (Florida State) et Garnett Picot
(Statistics Canada)
8h30-10h DURABLE GOODS PRODUCERS / FABRICANTS DE BIENS DURABLES
R-1860
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Zhiqi Chen (Carleton)
Roller Coastering Up and Down the Demand Curve of a
Durable Goods Monopolist
John Spicer (Queen's)
Durability, Learning and Time-Differentiated Demand
Christopher Green (McGill)
8h30-10h LABOUR MARKET SEARCH I / PROSPECTION SUR LE MARCHÉ DE
L'EMPLOI I
R-2840
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Christopher Ragan (McGill)
Recall versus Search: The Employer's Decision
Elizabeth Cunningham (Oklahoma) et Panayiotis
Mavros (Wayne State)
When Do Firms Search for Workers?
David Scoones (Texas at Austin)
8h30-10h PRICING BEHAVIOUR / FORMATION DES PRIX
R-R110
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Joseph Doucet (Laval)
Desperate Sellers
David Hanly (Saskatchewan Energy Conservation and
Development Authority)
Within-Market Price Dispersion in Franchised Chains:
A Look at the Fast-Food Industry
Francine Lafontaine (Michigan)
Optimal Time for Reorganization in Bankruptcy
Dan Bernhardt et Dennis Lu (Queen's)
8h30-10h CYCLICAL IMPULSES AND PROPAGATION / PERTURBATIONS ET
PROPAGATION CYCLIQUES
R-R140
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Steven Ambler (Québec à Montréal)
The Labour Market in Business Cycles
Louis Phaneuf (Québec à Montréal) et Alain Guay
(Banque du Canada)
Intermediated Finance, Inventory Investment, and the
Monetary Transmission Mechanism
Peter Thurlow (Bank of Canada)
Unemployment Insurance and the Business Cycle
Laura Brown et Christopher Ferrall (Queen's)
8h30-10h INDUSTRIAL POLICY / POLITIQUE INDUSTRIELLE
R-M180
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Denis Gauthier (Industry Canada)
Small-Firm Manufacturing Networks and Infrastructure
Policy
Lynne Pepall (Tufts)
Industrial Policy with a Menu of Programmes
Benoît Delage (British Columbia)
The Attraction of Foreign Manufacturing
Establishments: Investment Promotion and Agglomeration
Economies
Keith Head, John Ries (British Columbia) et Deborah
Swenson (California at Davis)
8h30-10h ADJUSTMENT TO FOREIGN SHOCKS / ADAPTATION AUX
PERTURBATIONS EXTÉRIEURES
R-R130
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Christian Zimmermann (Québec à Montréal)
Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and
Adjustment: Some Empirical Evidence
Tamin Bayoumi et Eswar Prasad (International
Monetary Fund)
Membership in the CFA Zone: A Comparative Study
Dieynaba Tandian (Queen's)
The Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks on Output and the
Trade Balance
Glenn Otto (New South Wales, Australia)
8h30-10h WELFARE AND THE ENVIRONMENT / ENVIRONNEMENT ET BIEN-
ÊTRE
R-1190
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Nancy Olewiler (Simon Fraser)
Environmental Capital and Sustainable Income: Basic
Concepts and Some Empirical Tests
Dodo Thampapillai (Macquarie, Australia) et Hans-
Erik Uhlin (Swedish University of Agricultural
Sciences, Uppsala)
When Urban Land Rent Increments Measure Technical
Progress
John Hartwick (Queen's)
8h30-10h MACROECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF LDCs / PROBLÈMES
MACROÉCONOMIQUES DES PVD
R-2930
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Syed Ahsan (Concordia)
Explaining the Service Sector Growth: An Empirical
Study of India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka
Mohammed Ansari (Athabasca)
Macroeconomic Policy of an Oil Exporting Country,
Iran: A Cointegration SVAR Analysis
Ata Mazaheri (Toronto)
8h30-10h TAXATION AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION / FISCALITÉ ET
ACCUMULATION DU CAPITAL
R-2680
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Jie Zhang (Victoria)
Intertemporal Equity of Taxation in the Presence of
Public Debt and Public Capital
Shinji Yamashige (Toronto)
The Welfare Effects of Tax Reforms in a Monetary
Economy
David Love (Brock) et Jean-François Wen (Wilfrid
Laurier)
Taxation, Human Capital Accumulation, and Economic
Growth
Shuanglin Lin (Nebraska)
10h20-11h50 CEA / CABE PANEL: BALANCED BUDGETS IN THE PROVINCES /
ÉQUILIBRE BUDGÉTAIRE DANS LES PROVINCES
R-M180
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Catherine Harris (Investment Executive)
PANELISTS / PARTICIPANTS:
Grant Robertson (Alberta Treasury)
Stephen Watson (Manitoba Department of Finance)
Chris Lawless (B.C. Ministry of Finance and
Corporate Relations)
Norm Campbell (New Brunswick Department of Finance)
10h20-11h50 LABOUR SUPPLY IN LDCs / OFFRE DE TRAVAIL DANS LES PVD
R-2930
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Padma Rao Sahib (Concordia)
Labour Supply of Households with Migrants: Evidence
from the Philippines
Edgard Rodriguez (Toronto)
Segmented Labour Markets and Labour Supply Decisions:
Evidence from Cameroun
Christophe Muller (Laval)
10h20-11h50 SLOWER GROWTH AND HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT / CROISSANCE
RALENTIE ET CHÔMAGE ACCRU
R-2680
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Farid Novin (Bank of Canada)
An Empirical Analysis of Growth and Stagnation in the
OECD Countries
Mohammad Selim (Dalhousie)
Productivity Slowdown in the United States: Some New
Evidence from the Level Shift Hypothesis
Baldev Raj (Wilfrid Laurier) et Daniel Slottje
(Southern Methodist)
The Real Debt Resistance Hypothesis: Nominal Wage
Rigidity and Unemployment
Javid Taheri (Saint Mary's)
10h20-11h50 FIRM BEHAVIOUR AND THE ENVIRONMENT / ENVIRONNEMENT ET
COMPORTEMENT DE L'ENTREPRISE
R-R160
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
John Hartwick (Queen's)
Exhaustible Resource Depletion in the Presence of
Stock Dependent Extraction Costs
John Livernois et Patrick Martin (Guelph)
The Determinants of an Environmentally Responsive
Firm: An Empirical Approach
Irène Henriques et Perry Sadorsky (York)
Environmental Protection and Endogenous Market
Structures: The Case of Differentiated Products
Christos Constantatos (Laval) et Eftichios
Sartzetakis (British Columbia)
10h20-11h50 TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES / STRUCTURE DES TAUX
D'INTÉRÊT SELON L'ÉCHÉANCE
R-1170
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Gregor Smith (Queen's)
Are Term Premia Economically Significant?
Gordon Fisher, Douglas Wilson (Concordia) et Kuan
Xu (Dalhousie)
Can a Nominal Term Structure Predict Changes in
Expected Inflation?
Colin Telmer (Queen's)
Are Term Premia Mean Reverting?
Walid Hejazi (Toronto)
10h20-11h50 REGULATION / RÉGLEMENTATION
R-2840
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Jean-Thomas Bernard (Laval)
Regulatory Constraints, Averch-Johnson Effects, and
Endogenous Prices
Christos Constantatos et Joseph Doucet (Laval)
Can the Merger of Container Transport Firms Be
Contrary to the Public Interest?
Fernand Martin (Montréal)
No-Fault Insurance as a Rational Response to Rate
Regulation
Rose Anne Devlin (Ottawa)
10h20-11h50 MEASURING THE OUTPUT GAP / DUR, DUR DE MESURER L'ÉCART
AU POTENTIEL
R-1860
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
John Helliwell (British Columbia)
Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?
Simon van Norden (Bank of Canada)
On Measuring Potential Output When You Know You're
Going to be Wrong: A Stochastic Simulation Approach
Robert Tetlow, Don Coletti et Dirk Muir (Bank of
Canada)
10h20-11h50 MEASUREMENT AND CAUSES OF UNEMPLOYMENT / MESURE ET
CAUSES DU CHOMAGE
R-R130
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Andrew Heisz (Statistics Canada)
Spells Off Welfare for Men: Are They Mostly Employment
Spells?
John Cragg (British Columbia) et Alice Nakamura
(Alberta)
Alternative Measures of Unemployment Based on Flow
Data
Stephen Jones (McMaster) et Craig Riddell (British
Columbia)
La source des fluctuations du chômage au Canada:
analyse d'un modèle à correction d'erreurs
Richard Archambault et Mario Fortin (Sherbrooke)
10h20-11h50 ÉCONOMIE DE L'ÉDUCATION / ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION
R-R110
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Marc Bilodeau (Sherbrooke)
Self Selection, Majority Voting, and the Optimal
Finance of Education
Charles Leung et Ban Chuan Cheah (Rochester)
Educational Streaming and the Roy Model
Kelly Bedard (Queen's)
Gender Differences in Education in a Two-Sex
Overlapping Generations Bargaining Model
Christina Echevarria (Saskatchewan) et Antonio
Merlo (Minnesota)
Optimal Public Education in LDCs with Private
Education
Bagala Biswal (Memorial)
10h20-11h50 INNOVATION / INNOVATION
R-1885
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Michael Denny (Toronto)
On the Law of Proportionate Effect, Innovative
Activity and Firm Growth-Size Relationship: Some
Canadian Evidence
Arun Mukhopadhyay et Saleh Amirkhalkhali (Saint
Mary's)
Market Conduct and Cooperative Search
Alan Gunderson (Queen's)
Towards a Stochastic Theory for the Location of
Innovative Activities
Christian DeBresson (Québec à Montréal) et Hu
Xiaoping (McGill)
10h20-11h50 REAL BUSINESS CYCLES / CYCLES RÉELS
R-R140
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
William Lang (Office of the Comptroller of the
Currency, Washington)
Bayesian Learning, Monopolistic Competition and the
Real Business Cycle
Bartholomew Moore et Dominique Simard (Rutgers)
La corrélation inflation-chômage dans un modèle
incorporant la monnaie et un secteur gouvernemental
Steven Ambler (Québec à Montréal), Marie-Josée
Godbout (Bank of Canada) et Louis Phaneuf (Québec à
Montréal)
Forecasting with International Real Business Cycle
Models
Christian Zimmermann (Québec à Montréal)
10h45-12h00 CEA / C.D. HOWE INSTITUTE / OECD: INTERNATIONAL
INVESTMENT, MARKET ACCESS, AND MULTILATERAL RULES II
/ INVESTISSEMENT ÉTRANGER, ACCÈS AUX MARCHÉS ET RÈGLES
MULTILATÉRALES II
R-1880
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Michael Hart (Foreign Affairs and International
Trade Canada)
Formal and Informal Investment Barriers in the G7
Countries
Someshwar Rao et Ash Ahmad (Industry Canada)
Private and Public Impediments to Market Presence:
Exploring the Investment-Competition Nexus
Mark Warner (University of Baltimore)
DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
Donald McFetridge (Carleton)
Ed Safarian (Toronto)
12h-14h DOUG PURVIS MEMORIAL LUNCHEON / DÉJEUNER COMMÉMORATIF
DOUG PURVIS
J-M100
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Alice Nakamura (Alberta)
AWARD OF DOUG PURVIS MEMORIAL PRIZE / ATTRIBUTION DU
PRIX COMMÉMORATIF DOUG PURVIS
LUNCHEON SPEAKER / CONFÉRENCIER:
Peter Diamond (Massachusetts Institute of
Technology)
TITLE / TITRE:
On Public Pensions
This is a fee event ($15 regular; $10 students). Room
is limited. Tickets should be purchased at the
Conference Registration Desk.
Le nombre de places est limité. On se procure un
billet au kiosque d'inscription du congrès (tarif
régulier: 15 $; tarif étudiant: 10 $).
14h-15h GENERAL MEETING OF THE ASSOCIATION / ASSEMBLÉE
GÉNÉRALE DE L'ASSOCIATION
J-M100
ANNOUNCEMENT OF PRIZE WINNERS / ANNONCE DES LAURÉATS
DES PRIX SUIVANTS:
Harry Johnson Prize / Prix Harry Johnson
John Vanderkamp Prize / Prix John Vanderkamp
OTHER ASSOCIATION BUSINESS / AUTRES ITEMS À L'ORDRE DU
JOUR DE L'ASSEMBLÉE
This meeting is open to all conference participants.
It is held in the same room as the Doug Purvis
Memorial Luncheon.
Tous les inscrits au congrès sont bienvenus à cette
assemblée. Elle a lieu dans la même pièce que le
déjeuner commémoratif Doug Purvis.
15h20-16h50 CEA / CABE PANEL: CANADA'S NEXT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN / LE
PROCHAIN RALENTISSEMENT ÉCONOMIQUE AU CANADA
R-R130
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
George Saba (Economic Consultant)
PANELISTS / PARTICIPANTS:
Leo de Bever (Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board)
Duncan Cameron (Canadian Centre for Policy
Alternatives)
John Richards (Simon Fraser)
Owen Lippert (Fraser Institute)
15h20-16h50 CEA / C.D. HOWE INSTITUTE / OECD: INTERNATIONAL
INVESTMENT, MARKET ACCESS, AND MULTILATERAL RULES III
/ INVESTISSEMENT ÉTRANGER, ACCÈS AUX MARCHÉS ET RÈGLES
MULTILATÉRALES III
R-1880
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Don McFetridge (Carleton)
Deep Integration: Tax Harmonisation and Investment
Policies in North America
Lorraine Eden (Carleton)
Technology, International Investment and Market Access
Christopher Wilkie (Industry Canada) et John de la
Mothe (Ottawa)
DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
Stéphane Dupuis (Hautes Études Commerciales)
Gilles Paquet (Ottawa)
15h20-16h50 EQUALIZATION / PÉRÉQUATION
R-1190
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
David Sewell (World Bank)
Alternative Approaches to Fiscal Federalism:
Horizontal Equity Equalization versus Fiscal Capacity
Equalization
Richard Musgrave (Harvard) et Peter Mieszkowski
(Rice)
Equity, Equality and Equalization
Dan Usher (Queen's)
Insurance and Incentive Effects of Transfers between
Regions: Equity and Efficiency
Sam Bucovetsky (York)
DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
Robin Boadway (Queen's)
Stanley Winer (Carleton)
15h20-16h50 TRADE AND WAGES IN LDCs / COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL ET
SALAIRES DANS LES PVD
R-R110
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
John Norsworthy (Rensselaer Polytechnic)
Effects of China's Foreign Trade Reform on Asia's
Trade and Welfare
Winnie Lam (Western Ontario)
The Premium for Skills in LDCs: Evidence from Mexico
Michael Cragg (Columbia) et Mario Epelbaum (ITAM,
Mexico)
Trade and Wage Dispersion in Chile, Colombia, Costa
Rica, Argentina and Malaysia: Comparison and Synthesis
Donald Robbins (Harvard)
15h20-16h50 CEA / CWEN: GENDER GAPS / ÉCARTS ENTRE HOMMES ET
FEMMES
R-R140
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Mary Bohman (British Columbia)
Is the Gender Gap Narrowing Faster than the Human
Capital Gap?
David Coish (Statistics Canada)
A Search Interpretation of Male-Female Wage
Differentials
Audra Bowlus (Western Ontario)
The Gender Gap: What Has Happened over the 1980's in
Canada?
Michael Kidd (Tasmania) et Michael Shannon
(Lakehead)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRES:
Lisa Powell (Queen's)
15h20-16h50 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS II / SÉRIES TEMPORELLES II
R-2840
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Michael Sampson (Concordia)
Simple Estimation and Identification Techniques for
Stationary and Non-Stationary ARMA Models
John Galbraith et Victoria Zinde-Walsh (McGill)
Stochastic Trends, Deterministic Trends, and Business
Cycle Turning Points
Stephen Gordon (Laval)
Business Cycle Turning Points: Two Empirical Business
Cycle Model Approaches
Todd Clark, Andrew Filardo (Federal Reserve of
Kansas City) et Stephen Gordon (Laval)
15h20-16h50 INCOME SECURITY / SÉCURITÉ DU REVENU
R-R160
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
William Watson (McGill)
An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Dependence on
Social Welfare in Québec
Bernard Fortin, Guy Lacroix et Hélène Roberge
(Laval)
Child Support Guidelines in Canada
Ross Finnie (Carleton and Statistics Canada) et
Daniel Stritinis (Stritinis Consulting)
The Interaction of Unemployment Insurance and Social
Assistance in Canada
Gary Barrett (British Columbia)
15h20-16h50 MARKET ENTRY AND EXIT / ENTRÉE ET SORTIE DU MARCHÉR-2630
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Francine Lafontaine (Michigan, Ann Arbor)
Does Heiner's Model Explain the Entry-Exit Behaviour
of Competitive Firms?
Iraj Fooladi (Dalhousie) et Nargess Kayhani (Mount
Saint Vincent)
Market Size and Welfare under Free Entry
F.J. Anderson (Lakehead)
Strategic Delegation in Oligopoly
Stephen Ziss (Sidney, Australia)
15H20-16H50 EFFECTS OF NOMINAL WAGE CONTRACTS / CONSÉQUENCES DES
CONTRATS NOMINAUX
R-1885
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Robert Tetlow (Bank of Canada)
The Welfare Costs of Nominal Wage Contracting
Jang Ok Cho (Queen's), Thomas Cooley (Rochester) et
Louis Phaneuf (Québec à Montréal)
Nominal Rigidities and the International Transmission
of the Business Cycle
Steven Ambler (Québec à Montreal) et
Emanuela Cardia (Montréal)
The Effects of Fiscal Policies in a General
Equilibrium Model with Nominal Wage Contracts
Emanuela Cardia (Montréal)
15h20-16h50 LAW AND ECONOMICS / DROIT ET SCIENCE ÉCONOMIQUE
R-1860
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Patricia Koss (Guelph)
Emotional Litigation, Damage Awards and the Allocation
of Legal Costs
Glenn Feltham et William Morrison (Wilfrid Laurier)
Settlement of Litigation under Rule 68: An Economic
Analysis
Tai-Yeong Chung (Western Ontario)
15h20-16h50 CEA / CRSA: ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT ACROSS REGIONS /
AJUSTEMENT ÉCONOMIQUE INTERRÉGIONAL
R-1170
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
William Milne (New Brunswick)
Economic Adjustment across the Canadian Provinces: The
Role of Factor Movements and Prices
William Milne et B.A. Mullin (New Brunswick)
Wage Rigidity and Provincial Unemployment Rates, 1961-
1991
Ronald Kneebone (Calgary) et James Johnson
(Okanagan)
The Effects of Public Debt on Regional Adjustment:
Some Preliminary Theory
D. Rowlands (Carleton)
Regional Labour Market Adjustments in Response to
Changes in Transfer Payments
C. Leiser (Government of Newfoundland)
15h20-16h50 TAXATION AS GAME / LA FISCALITÉ COMME JEU
R-2930
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Paul Gomme (Simon Fraser)
The Formulation of Income Tax Policy: A Game Theoretic
Approach
Granville Ansong et Barry Gorman (Saint Mary's)
Municipal Tax Competition in a Canadian Context
Wade Locke (Memorial) et Almos Tassonyi (Ontario
Ministry of Municipal Affairs)
Corporate Tax Asymmetries: An Oligopolistic Supergame
Analysis
Pierre-Pascal Gendron (Toronto)
17h-18h15 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS / DISCOURS DE LA PRÉSIDENTE
J-M415
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT DE SÉANCE:
Thomas Courchene (Queen's)
SPEAKER / ORATEUR:
Alice Nakamura (Alberta)
TITLE / TITRE:
New Directions for Unemployment Insurance, Social
Assistance, and Vocational Education and Training
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUNDAY JUNE 4 / DIMANCHE 4 JUIN
8h30-10h TRADE AND WAGES IN ADVANCED COUNTRIES / COMMERCE
INTERNATIONAL ET SALAIRES DANS LES PAYS AVANCÉS
R-1880
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Charles Beach (Queen's)
The Impact of International Trade on Growing Wage
Inequality
Eugene Beaulieu et Michael Cragg (Columbia)
Implications of Trade on Wages and Jobs in Canada
Frank Lee (Industry Canada)
8h30-10h RURAL ECONOMICS IN LDCs II / ÉCONOMIE RURALE DANS LES
PVD II
R-R160
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Christophe Muller (Laval)
Rent-Seeking Activity in Coffee Exporting Countries:
Effects of International Coffee Agreement Quotas and
their Suspension
Mary Bohman (British Columbia) et Lovell Jarvis
(California at Davis)
Productivity and Organization in China's Rural
Industries: An Efficient Frontier Analysis
Xiao-Yuan Dong (Winnipeg) et Louis Putterman
(Brown)
8h30-10h ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AND TAXATION / CROISSANCE ENDOGÈNE
ET FISCALITÉR-1170
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Dominique Simard (Rutgers)
Optimal Taxation in an Endogenous Growth Model with
Government-Supplied Educational Capital
Paul Gomme (Simon Fraser)
Social Security and Endogenous Growth
Jie Zhang (Victoria)
Government Spending and Taxation in a Two-Sector
Endogenous Growth Model
Jing Xu (Finance Canada)
8h30-10h ANALYSIS OF PARTICULAR TAXES / ANALYSE DE TAXES
PARTICULIÈRES
R-R110
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Dan Usher (Queen's)
Incidence and Distribution: Newfoundland's Consumption
Tax Revisited
K.S. Nadarajah et Michael Wernerheim (Memorial)
Technology Spillovers and the Taxation of Foreign
Direct Investment
Marianne Vigneault (Bishop's)
Potential Gross Welfare Changes from a Revenue-Neutral
Carbon Tax: An Econometric General Equilibrium
Analysis
Ross McKitrick (British Columbia)
8h30-10h MONEY AND INTEREST RATES / MONNAIE ET INTÉRÊT
R-2630
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Colin Telmer (Queen's)
Commercial Bank Interest Rates in Canada
Barry Scholnick (Alberta)
Bargaining-Induced Transaction Demand for Fiat Money
Merwan Engineer (Guelph) et Shouyong Shi (Queen's)
Domestic and External Factors in Interest Rate
Determination
Guglielmo Maria Caporale (London Business School)
et Nikitas Pittis (Cyprus)
8h30-10h INCOME CONVERGENCE AMONG COUNTRIES / CONVERGENCE
INTERNATIONALE DES REVENUS
R-R140
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Diana Tsai (Concordia)
Productivity Convergence in OECD Countries, 1960-1993
Cemile Sancak (Carleton)
Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Income
Convergence in Canada and the United States
Dajin Li (Carleton)
Adoption of New Technology by a Lagging Country:
Leapfrogging or Divergence?
Zhiqi Chen (Carleton)
8h30-10h FINANCIAL MARKETS II / MARCHÉS FINANCIERS II
R-2840
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Thomas McCurdy (Queen's)
A Two-Factor Model of Asset Pricing: Volatility
Shocks, Conditional Coskewness and Conditional Beta
Marie Racine (Wilfrid Laurier)
Estimating State-Dependent Risk Aversion Using Data
Augmentation
Stephen Gordon et Pascal Saint-Amour (Laval)
8h30-10h PROBIT AND DURATION MODELS / MODÈLES DE TYPE PROBIT ET
DE DURÉE
R-2930
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Michael Cragg (Columbia)
Looking for the Best Maximum Simulated Likelihood
Technique to Estimate Multinomial Probit Models?
Denis Bolduc (Laval)
Multinomial Probit Estimation of Models Exhibiting a
General Error Covariance Structure without Nuisance
Parameters
Jon Breslaw (Concordia)
Bayesian Analysis of Duration Models: An Application
to Bankruptcy
Kai Li (Toronto)
8h30-10h LABOUR MARKET SEARCH II / PROSPECTION SUR LE MARCHÉ DE
L'EMPLOI II
R-2680
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
David Scoones (Texas at Austin)
Offer Arrival Rates, Reservation Wages, and the
Dynamics of Unemployment
Francis L'Italien et Paul Storer (Québec à Montréal)
Is There Compelling Evidence Against Increasing
Returns to Matching in the Labour Market?
Simon Baker (Department of Trade and Industry,
United Kingdom), Seamus Hogan et Christopher Ragan
(McGill)
Unemployment Insurance Analysis in a Search Economy
Guang-Jia Zhang (Rochester)
8h30-10h CENTRAL BANK BEHAVIOUR / COMPORTEMENT DES BANQUES
CENTRALES
R-1860
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Peter Thurlow (Bank of Canada)
Central Bank Independence and Growth: A Sensitivity
Analysis
Hafiz Akhand (Regina)
Electoral Effects on Central Bank Behaviour
Edward Kutsoati (Queen's)
Bayesian Analysis of the Fed's Open Market Operations:
An Application of Dynamic Tobit-Like Models
Steven Wei (Toronto)
8h30-10h WAGE AND INCOME INEQUALITY / INÉGALITÉS DES SALAIRES
ET DES REVENUS
R-M180
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Stephen Jones (McMaster)
Why Has Inequality in Weekly Wages Increased in
Canada?
René Morissette (Statistics Canada)
Changes in the Distribution of Wages in Canada, 1981-
1992
David Richardson (Saint Lawrence, N.Y.)
Unto the Sons: An Analysis of Intergenerational Income
Mobility among Canadian Males
Miles Corak et Andrew Heisz (Statistics Canada)
8h30-10h WAGES AND BARGAINING / SALAIRES ET NÉGOCIATION
R-1190
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Felice Martinello (Brock)
The Intra-Contract Life of the Nominal and Real Wage
Rates
Louis Christofides et Audrey Sattelberger-Laporte
(Guelph)
Firm Wage Effects: Rents or Sorting?
Thomas Crossley et Peter Kuhn (McMaster)
Pattern Bargaining
David Scowcroft et Dan Bernhardt (Queen's)
9h30-11h30 CEA / CEANA: ECONOMIC ISSUES IN TAIWAN AND CHINA /
PROBLÈMES ÉCONOMIQUES DE TAIWAN ET DE LA CHINE
R-1885
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Sheng-Cheng Hu (Purdue)
The Share of Informal Financing: The Case of Taiwan
Jia-Dong Shea (Academia Sinica, Taiwan)
The Role of Human Capital Investment for Economies in
Transition: An Alternative View of Taiwan's Economic
Development
Ming-Chang Cheng (SUNY, Buffalo)
The Development of Non-Bank Financial Institutions in
China
Yingfeng Xu (Alberta)
A Structural Model of Inflation in China: The Role of
the State Sector
Haiying Zhao (UST, Hong Kong)
DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
Kenneth Chan (McMaster)
Jia-Dong Shea (Academia Sinica, Taiwan)
Ming-Chang Cheng (SUNY, Buffalo)
10h20-11h50 CEA / CABE PANEL: AGRICULTURAL TRADE AFTER NAFTA AND
GATT / LE COMMERCE AGRICOLE APRÈS L'ALÉNA ET LE GATT
R-2840
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Gerald Trant (Consultant)
PANELISTS / PANÉLISTES:
Richard Barichello (British Columbia)
Bruno Larue (Laval)
Kathleen Macmillan (Global Economics)
Murray Smith (Carleton)
10h20-11h50 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS III / SÉRIES TEMPORELLES III
R-2930
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Alfred Haug (York)
The Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VAR
(or VECM) with Long-Run Restrictions
Alain DeSerres (Finance Canada) et Alain Guay (Bank
of Canada)
A VAR-Error Correction (VAREC) Model for Analyzing
Timing and Calibration of Monetary Policy
Farid Novin (Bank of Canada)
10h20-11h50 REGULATION II / RÉGLEMENTATION II
R-R140
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Rose Anne Devlin (Ottawa)
Performance Measurement in Telecommunications: A
Comparison of Model Estimation and Data Envelopment
Analysis
John Norsworthy (Rensselaer Polytechnic) et Diana
Tsai (Concordia)
Refusals to Deal in Competitive Markets
Zhiqi Chen (Carleton) et Thomas Ross (British
Columbia)
Test of Utility Functions in the Context of Road
Safety
Bachir Belhadji (Montréal)
10h20-11h50 EARNINGS OF PARTICULAR GROUPS / GAINS SALARIAUX DE
GROUPES PARTICULIERS
R-1190
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Ross Finnie (Carleton and Statistics Canada)
Earnings of the Disabled: A Case of Discrimination?
Jon Harkness (Queen's)
A Distributional Analysis of the Earnings of Whites
and Blacks in the United States, 1969-1990
Charles Beach, Richard Chaykowski (Queen's) et
George Slotsve (Vanderbilt)
Labour Market Earnings and Religion in Canada:
Evidence from the 1991 Census
Ather Akbari (Saint Mary's)
DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
René Morissette (Statistics Canada)
Jean Kimmel (Upjohn Institute)
10h20-11h50 CEA / CSLS: THE CANADA-U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GAP I /
L'ÉCART DE CHOMAGE ENTRE LE CANADA ET LES ÉTATS-UNIS
I
R-M180
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Ian Stewart (Centre for the Study of Living
Standards)
A Survey of Explanations for the Canada-U.S.
Unemployment Rate Gap
Andrew Sharpe (Centre for the Study of Living
Standards)
Unemployment in Canada and the United States: A
Further Analysis
David Card (Princeton) et Craig Riddell (British
Columbia)
Why Is the Unemployment Rate Higher in Canada than in
the United States?
Maxime Fougère (Finance Canada)
DISCUSSANTS / COMMENTAIRES:
Miles Corak (Statistics Canada)
Lars Osberg (Dalhousie)
10h20-11h50 EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY / INSTABILITÉ DES TAUX DE
CHANGE
R-1880
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Simon van Norden (Bank of Canada)
Speculative Currency Attacks with Endogenously-Induced
Commercial Bank Crises
Victoria Miller (Québec à Montréal)
Hedging Foreign Currency Portfolios
Louis Gagnon (Queen's), Gregory Lypny (Concordia)
et Thomas McCurdy (Queen's)
Credit Market Imperfections and Exchange Rate
Variability
Wai-Ming Ho (Waterloo)
10h20-11h50 WATER MANAGEMENT / GESTION DE L'EAU
R-1170
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Robert McRae (Calgary)
Compensation Payments for Regulatory Takings: Catalyst
or Impediment to Canada's Reform of Water Allocation
Ted Horbulyk (Calgary)
Instruments for Controlling Water Quality from
Nonpoint Sources: Nutrient Pollution Tradeoffs and
Individual Profits
Anastasia Lintner (Guelph)
Discharging Industrial Pollutants into the Great
Lakes: Pollution Permits Will Not Solve the Moral
Hazard Problem
Anindya Sen (Toronto)
10h20-11h50 DYNAMIC EXTERNALITIES AND GROWTH / EFFETS EXTERNES
DYNAMIQUES ET CROISSANCE
R-R160
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Merwan Engineer (Guelph)
Human Capital Vintages, Network Externalities, and
Distribution
Peter Kennedy et Ian King (Victoria)
Dynamic Externalities and Policy Coordination
Manjira Datta (Saskatchewan) et Leonard Mirman
(Virginia)
Endogenous Technological Change and Wage Inequality
Huw Lloyd-Ellis (Toronto)
10h20-11h50 FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT / FINANCE ET DÉVELOPPEMENT
R-2680
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Emanuela Cardia (Montréal)
The Debt Overhang and Poorer LDCs: Testing for
Causality Between Indebtedness and Growth
Saud Choudhry et Mak Arvin (Trent)
Financial Disintermediation and Slow Economic Growth:
The Mexican Case After the Foreign Debt Crisis of 1982
Talan Iscan (Dalhousie)
Debt Contracts, Stochastic Collateral and Credit
Rationing in Emerging Financial Markets
Robert Jones (Simon Fraser) et David Nickerson
(American University, Washington)
10h20-11h50 MEASUREMENT ISSUES IN TAXATION / PROBLÈMES DE MESURE
EN FISCALITÉR-R110
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Bev Dahlby (Alberta)
Statistical Inference for the Measurement of
Progressivity, Redistribution, and Horizontal Equity
Russell Davidson (Aix-Marseille, France) et Jean-
Yves Duclos (Laval)
Measuring Tax Incidence with an Inflation-Adjusted
Income Base
Irwin Gillespie, Arndt Vermaeten (Carleton) et
Frank Vermaeten (Finance Canada)
On the Hopelessness of Inferring Changes in the Size
of the Underground Economy from Estimates of Currency
Demand
Roderick Hill et Muhammed Kabir (New Brunswick)
10h15-12h EFFECTS OF FISCAL DEFICITS / CONSÉQUENCES DES DÉFICITS
BUDGÉTAIRES
R-2630
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Filip Palda (École nationale d'administration
publique)
Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits
Hypothesis
Michel Normandin (Québec à Montréal)
Fiscal Deficits and Saving-Investment Dynamics: Some
Time Series Evidence
Saleh Amirkhalkhali, Atul Dar et Samad
Amirkhalkhali (Saint Mary's)
Budgetary Policy, Risk Premium and Fiscal Discipline:
Empirical Evidence from Selected Canadian Provinces
Simon Pintal, François Delorme (Finance Canada) et
Marc Vanheukelen (European Commission)
Are Provincial Budget Deficits Too Large? Evidence
from Panel Data
Mark Strazicich (Ohio State)
12h-13h30 EDITORIAL BOARD LUNCHEON OF THE CANADIAN JOURNAL OF
ECONOMICS / DÉJEUNER DU COMITÉ DE RÉDACTION DE LA
REVUE CANADIENNE D'ÉCONOMIQUE
A-1840
For Board members / Pour les membres du Comité
13h-15h CEA / CPSA PANEL: THE NEW ORTHODOXY IN ECONOMIC POLICY
/ LA NOUVELLE ORTHODOXIE EN POLITIQUE ÉCONOMIQUE
R-1190
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Duncan Cameron (Ottawa)
PANELISTS / PARTICIPANTS:
Marjorie Cohen (Simon Fraser)
Thomas Courchene (Queen's)
Richard Harris (Simon Fraser)
13h30-15h PANEL: A CENTENARY ASSESSMENT OF W.A. MACKINTOSH'S
LIFE AND LEGACY / L'HÉRITAGE DE W.A. MACKINTOSH
R-1885
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Alison Morgan (Queen's)
PANELISTS / PARTICIPANTS:
Malcolm Urqhart (Queen's)
Mel Watkins (Toronto)
Lars Osberg (Dalhousie)
13h30-15h CEA / CSLS: THE CANADA-U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GAP II
/ L'ÉCART DE CHOMAGE ENTRE LE CANADA ET LES ÉTATS-UNIS
II
R-M180
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
David Slater (Centre for the Study of Living
Standards)
Is the U.S.-Canada Unemployment Gap Truly Large? A
Labour Flow Analysis
Pierre-Yves Crémieux et Marc Van Audenrode (Québec
à Montréal)
A Comparative Analysis of Stocks and Flows of
Unemployment in Canada and the United States
Michael Baker (Toronto), Miles Corak et Andrew
Heisz (Statistics Canada)
The Canadian Labor Market: Sources of Shocks and
Adjustment Mechanism
Eswar Prasad et Alun Thomas (International Monetary
Fund)
DISCUSSANT / COMMENTAIRES:
Stephen Jones (McMaster)
Craig Riddell (British Columbia)
13h30-15h POLICY ANALYSIS IN MALAYSIA AND THAILAND / ANALYSE DE
POLITIQUES EN MALAISIE ET EN THAILANDE
R-1880
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Robin Boadway (Queen's)
Reform of the Sales Tax System in Malaysia
Peter Townley (Acadia) et Nasaruddin Arshad
(Malaysian Institute of Economic Research)
A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Tax Enforcement in Thailand
Bev Dahlby (Alberta), Nipon Poapongsakorn (Thailand
Development Research Institute), Kovit
Charnvitayapong, Duangmanee Laovakul et Somchai
Suksiriserekul (Thammasat University)
The "Rationality" of Corruption: Voting and Taxation
in Developing Countries
Frank Flatters (Queen's) et Ammar Siamwalla
(Thailand Development Research Institute)
13h30-15h TRADE AND STRATEGIC BEHAVIOUR / COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL
ET COMPORTEMENT STRATÉGIQUE
R-2630
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Prakash Sharma (Foreign Affairs and International
Trade Canada)
Strategic Enforcement and Redistribution in an
Anarchic Global Environment
Kenneth Chan (McMaster)
Smuggling and the Non-Equivalence Between Tariffs and
Quotas in the Presence of Monopoly Power in Domestic
Production
Harvey Lapan (Iowa State) et Bruno Larue (Laval)
Gestion et évolution de la ferme laitière québécoise
dans le contexte de la mondialisation des marchés
Mario Roy et Jean-Bernard Carrière (Québec à Trois-
Rivières)
13h30-15h DEMOGRAPHY AND DEVELOPMENT / DÉMOGRAPHIE ET
DÉVELOPPEMENT
R-2840
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Leonard Dudley (Montréal)
A Contribution to the Theory of Demographic Transition
in LDCs
Mukesh Eswaran (British Columbia)
Markets, Growth, Fertility and Urbanization
Jie Zhang (Victoria)
Determinants of Fertility in Vietnam
Huan Nguyen-Dinh (McMaster)
13h30-15h TAXATION OF CAPITAL / TAXATION DU CAPITAL
R-1170
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Larry McDonough (Royal Military College)
An Empirical and GE Model Investigation of the Effects
of Capital Taxation on Private Investment in Canada
Steven James et Kurt Mang (Finance Canada)
The Deadweight Loss of Capital Income Taxation in a
Portfolio/Savings Model
Syed Ahsan (Concordia) et Peter Tsigaris (Cariboo)
13h30-15h INVESTMENT AND FIRM BEHAVIOUR / INVESTISSEMENT ET
COMPORTEMENT DE L'ENTREPRISE
R-2930
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Dominique Demougin (Québec à Montréal)
The Cost of Adjustment Model of Investment under
Asymmetric Information
Gérard Gaudet (Laval), Pierre Lasserre (Québec
à Montréal) et Ngo Van Long (McGill)
The Implications of Parameter Uncertainty for
Irreversible Investment Decisions
Michael Sampson (Concordia)
The Influence of the Macroeconomic Environment on the
Enterprise
John Norsworthy (Rensselaer Polytechnic) et Diana
Tsai (Concordia)
13h30-15h ADJUSTMENT TO EXCHANGE RATE SHOCKS / ADAPTATION AUX
VARIATIONS DES TAUX DE CHANGE
R-R160
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Alain DeSerres (Finance Canada)
Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Canadian Automotive
Sector
David Sabiston (Ottawa)
The Comparative Effects of Exchange Rates and Interest
Rates and Industry Specific Assistance Programs on
Competitiveness: A Case Study of the Cattle and Beef
Industries in Canada
Sandy Greig, Ihn Ho Uhm (Canadian International
Trade Tribunal), Hsin Huang et Bruce Huff
(Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)
13h30-15h DISTRIBUTION THEORY / THÉORIE DE LA RÉPARTITION
R-2680
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Peter Wylie (Trent)
Redistribution and the Valuation of Gains and Losses:
Choices Behind the Veil of Ignorance
E.W. Bukszar et Jack Knetsch (Simon Fraser)
The Initial Resource Distribution in an Economic Model
of Conflict
Hugh Neary (British Columbia)
13h30-15h HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOUR / COMPORTEMENT DES MÉNAGES
R-1860
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENTE:
Lise Salvas-Bronsard (Montréal)
Technology, Human Capital, and the Value of Household
Output
Tarek Harchaoui (Statistics Canada)
Model Specification Issues in Consumer Demand Systems
Using United States Microdata
Christopher Nicol (Regina)
13h30-15h MARKETS FOR NATURAL RESOURCES: GASOLINE AND LUMBER /
MARCHÉS DE RESSOURCES NATURELLES: ESSENCE ET BOIS
D'OEUVRE
R-R110
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
André Plourde (Ottawa)
Demand for Motor Gasoline in OECD Countries
Robert McRae (Calgary)
An Integrated Model of Québec-Ontario-U.S. Northeast
Softwood Lumber Markets
Jean-Thomas Bernard, Luc Bouthillier, Jérôme
Catimel et Nancy Gélinas (Laval)
15h20-16h50 UNCERTAINTY AND REVEALED PREFERENCES/ INCERTITUDE ET
RÉVÉLATION DES PRÉFÉRENCES
R-2930
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Georges Dionne (Montréal)
The Evolution of Decision Preferences: An Empirical
Investigation by Means of Adaptive Modelling
Bernhard Borges (Simon Fraser)
Uncertainty Aversion and Rationality in Games of
Perfect Information
Chenghu Ma (McGill)
A Reexamination of Gale's Example about Revealed
Preference Theory
Wusan Xi (Ottawa)
15h20-16h50 INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTION AND CONSUMPTION /
SUBSTITUTION INTERTEMPORELLE ET CONSOMMATION
R-1170
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Louis Christofides (Guelph)
Measuring the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution
of Labour Supply: New Empirical Evidence and
Macroeconomic Implications
Humam Sakhnini (Finance Canada)
Testing for Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics in Rational
Expectations Permanent Income Hypothesis
Saeed Moshiri (Manitoba)
15h20-16h50 PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY / INDUSTRIE PHARMACEUTIQUE
R-2840
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Judith Alexander (Copyright Board)
Price Regulation of the Pharmaceutical Industry
Aslam Anis (Ottawa) et Quan Wen (Windsor)
Exploring Inertia: Organizational Failure and
Governance Costs in Pharmaceutical Research
Iain Cockburn (British Columbia) et Rebecca
Henderson (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
15h20-16h50 BASEBALL AND THE SERVICES INDUSTRY / BASEBALL ET
INDUSTRIE DES SERVICES
R-R110
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Serge Coulombe (Ottawa)
Hedonics, Implicit Markets, and Demand Analysis: The
Implicit Demand for Baseball Player Characteristics
Kenneth Stewart (Victoria)
Les déterminants des échanges intra-industriels dans
les services
Emmanuel Nyahoho (École nationale d'administration
publique)
15h20-16h50 RECYCLING / RECYCLAGE
R-1885
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
Denise Jarvinen (Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution, Massachusetts)
Recycled-Content Standards in Open Economies with
Imperfect Competition
Nancy Carson (Toronto)
Could There Be an Optimal Level of Recycling?
Fidel Ezeala-Harrison (New Brunswick)
15h20-16h50 BLACK MARKETS FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE / MARCHÉS NOIRS DE
DEVISES ÉTRANGÈRES
R-R160
CHAIR / PRÉSIDENT:
André Martens (Montréal)
The Dynamics of the Devaluation/Inflation Cycle in
Parallel Markets for Foreign Exchange
Ibrahim Onour (Manitoba)
Cointegration of the Black Market Premium with Real
and Monetary Shocks in Pre- and Post-Revolutionary
Iran
Kazem Yavari (Toronto)
15h30-17h30 EXECUTIVE COUNCIL MEETING / RÉUNION DU CONSEIL DE
DIRECTION
R-5460
For Council members / Pour les membres du Conseil
|