1996 Conference Program

THURSDAY MAY 30 / JEUDI 30 MAI, 3:00-6:00, Taro 262
EXECUTIVE COUNCIL MEETING / RÉUNION DU CONSEIL DE DIRECTION

THURSDAY MAY 30 / JEUDI 30 MAI, 6:30, After Hours
PAST PRESIDENTS' DINNER / DÎNER DES ANCIENS PRÉSIDENTS
(for past presidents and Executive Council members / pour les anciens présidents et les membres du Conseil de Direction

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 8:30 - 10:00, Thistle 258
CABE PANEL: CANADIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: HOW REALISTIC ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS BEHIND ECONOMIC FORECASTS? / PERSPECTIVES ÉCONOMIQUES CANADIENNES: LES HYPOTHÈSES SOUS-JACENTES AUX PRÉVISIONS SONT-ELLES RÉALISTES?

Chair / Président: George Pedersson (G.A. Pedersson and Associates)

Panelists / Panélistes:
      Tom McCormack (Strategic Projections)

Discussants / Commentaires:
      John Kuszczak (Bank of Canada)
      George Pedersson (G.A. Pedersson and Associates)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 303
CSLS / CIRA: CANADA-U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GAP / ÉCART DE CHÔMAGE ENTRE LE CANADA ET LES ÉTATS-UNIS

Chair / Président: Andrew Sharpe (Centre for the Study of Living Standards)

1. The Effects of Survey Instruments on the Canada-U.S. Unemployment Rate Gap
         Ian Macredie (Statistics Canada)
2. Gross Flows of Labour in Canada and the United States
         Stephen Jones (McMaster University)
         Craig Riddell (University of British Columbia)
3. Shifting Skill Demand and the Canada-U.S. Unemployment Rate Gap: Evidence from Prime-Age Men
         Peter Kuhn (McMaster University)
         Leslie Robb (McMaster University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 203
SEMI-PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION / ESTIMATION SEMI-PARAMÉTRIQUE

1. The Impact of News on Foreign Exchange Rates: Evidence from Very High Frequency Data
         Dirk Eddelbüuttel (GREQAM-EHESS)
         Thomas H. McCurdy (Queen's University)
2. Semiparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Duration Models
         Peter Bearse (University of Tennessee)
         José Canals (University of Virginia)
         Paul Rilstone (York University)
3. Parametric and Non-Parametric Estimation of Location Effects
         Michael Ho (University of Toronto)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 8:30 - 10:00, Thistle 259
MONETARY THEORY / THÉORIE MONÉTAIRE

1. Inflation, Welfare, and the Time-Costs of Transacting
         David R.F. Love (Brock University)
         Jean-Françcois Wen (Wilfrid Laurier University)
2. Transaction Costs and Competing Currencies
         Merwan Engineer (University of Victoria)
3. On the Long-Run Non-Neutrality of Money
         Javid Taheri (Saint Mary's University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 8:30 - 10:00, Thistle 249
EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF GROWTH / ANALYSE EMPIRIQUE DE LA CROISSANCE

1. A Reasonable Extreme-Bounds Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions
         Hafiz A. Akhand (University of Regina)
2. Endogenous Growth, Sectoral Composition of Production and International Spillovers
         Shamika Sirimanne (Carleton University)
3. Declining Growth Rates of GDP in Canada During 1974-89 Period Compared to 1966-73
         M. Selim (Mount Allison University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 8:30 - 10:00, Thistle 248
EDUCATION AND PRODUCTIVITY / ÉDUCATION ET PRODUCTIVITÉ

1. Role of Education in Canadian Production
         Ather H. Akbari (Saint Mary's University)
         Kitty Mak (Dalhousie University)
2. Is There a Link Between School Inputs and Earnings? Fresh Scrutiny of an Old Literature
         Julian Betts (University of California, San Diego)
3. Tenure and Productivity: What is the Relationship?
         Christine Brown Mahoney (University of Minnesota)
         Kathryn J. Ready (University of Wisconsin)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 10:20 - 11:50, Thistle 258
CABE PANEL: WHAT DO BUSINESSES AND GOVERNMENTS WANT FROM ECONOMISTS? / À QUOI S'ATTENDENT LES ENTREPRISES ET LES GOUVERNEMENTS DES ÉCONOMISTES?

Chair / Président: Catherine Harris (University of Toronto)

Panelists / Panélistes:
      Leo de Bever (Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board)
      John Hoicka (Ontario Ministry of Finance)
      Joseph Kushner (Brock University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 10:20 - 11:50, Thistle 244
C.D. HOWE PANEL: EQUALITY AND THE DEBT REDUCTION CHALLENGE / L'ÉQUITÉ ET LE DÉFI DE LA RÉDUCTION DE LA DETTE

Chair / Président: Bill Robson (C.D. Howe Institute)

1. Equality and Prosperity: Some Facts and Alternative Interpretations
         Bill Robson (C.D. Howe)
         Bill Scarth (McMaster University)
2. Equality and Government: Taxes, Transfers and Public Services
         Irwin Gillespie (Carleton University)
3. Equality and Growth
         David Love (Brock University)
         Hew Lloyd-Ellis (University of Toronto)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 307
CIRA: JOB TRAINING / FORMATION DE LA MAIN-D'OEUVRE

1. Training in Canadian Industry: Evidence from New Establishment Surveys
         Gordon Betcherman (Canadian Policy Research Networks)
         Kathryn McMullen (Canadian Policy Research Networks)
         Norm Leckie (Canadian Policy Research Networks)
2. Job-Related Training: Analysis from the Adult Education and Training Survey
         Patrice de Broucker (Statistics Canada)
3. La Formation Professionnelle Comme Outil de Gestion de Changement dans les Entreprises: Le Cas du Secteur Financier au Québec
         Colette Bernier (Laval University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 405
ECONOMIC HISTORY / HISTOIRE ÉCONOMIQUE

Chair / Président: Malcolm C. Urquhart (Queen's University)

1. Communications and Economic Growth
         Leonard Dudley (Université de Montréal)
2. Late Nineteenth Century Asset-Age Profiles: Evidence from Micro-Data
         Livio Di Matteo (Lakehead University)
3. In Search of Labour: The Political Economy of Canadian Immigration: 1900-1930
         Alan Green (Queen's University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 303
THE THEORY OF FEDERALISM AND CLUB GOODS / LA THÉORIE DU FÉDÉRALISME ET DES BIENS DE CLUB

1. Redistribution, Voting, and Migration Dynamics
         Nicolas Marceau (Université Laval)
         Jean-François Wen (Wilfrid Laurier University
2. From Each According to Their Capacity to Pay: Differentiated Pricing in Clubs
         Vicky Barham (University of Ottawa)
         Laura Razzolini (University of Mississippi)
3. The Consequences of Overlapping Tax Bases for Redistribution in a Federation
         Marianne Vigneault (Queen's University)
         Robin Boadway (Queen's University)
         Maurice Marchand (CORE, Belgium)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 10:20 - 11:50, Thistle 259
FORECASTING INFLATION / PRÉVISION DE L'INFLATION

1. Artificial Neural Networks and the Traditional Econometric Models on Forecasting the CPI
         Saeed Moshiri (University of Manitoba)
2. An Indicator Model of ``Core'' Inflation for Canada
         Robert Lamy (Department of Finance)
         Paul Rochon (Department of Finance)
3. What Does the Dispersion of Forecasts Tell Us About the Risks to the Consensus Forecast?
         Paul Rochon (Department of Finance)
         Jeremy Rudin (Department of Finance)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 403
CHILDREN AND ECONOMIC POLICY / LA POLITIQUE ÉCONOMIQUE ET LES ENFANTS

Chair / Président: Merwan Engineer (University of Victoria)

1. A Framework for the Analysis of Child Care Policy
         Ugurhan G. Berkok (Royal Military College of Canada)
         Lawrence McDonough (Royal Military College of Canada)
2. Estimating a Model of Employment and Non-Participation due to Childbirth for Canadian Women
         Christian Belzil (European Economic Institute)
         Padma Rao Sahib (Concordia University)
3. Human Capital, True Love, and Family Roles
         Merwan Engineer (University of Victoria)
         David Robinson (Laurentian University)
         Linda Welling (University of Victoria)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 10:20 - 11:50, Thistle 248
EMPIRICAL PUBLIC FINANCE I / FINANCE PUBLIQUE EMPIRIQUE I

Chair / Président: Chris Nicol (University of Regina)

1. Issues in the Design and Reform of Commodity Taxes: Analytical Results and Empirical Evidence
         Ranjan Ray (University of Tasmania)
2. Welfare Magnets and Migration
         Jim Walker (University of Wisconsin)
3. An Evaluation of the Impact of Public Infrastructure on Provincial Manufacturing Productivity
         Chris Fader (Acadia University)
         Jim Brox (University of Waterloo)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 12:00 - 1:30, Taro 262
CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS EDITORIAL BOARD LUNCHEON / DÉJEUNER DU COMITÉ DE RÉDACTION DE LA REVUE CANADIENNE D'ÉCONOMIQUE

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 12:00 - 1:30, Taro 260
CANADIAN PUBLIC POLICY EDITORIAL BOARD LUNCHEON / DÉJEUNER DU COMITÉ DE RÉDACTION D'ANALYSE DE POLITIQUES

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 1:30 - 3:00, Thistle 244
IRPP: INTERGENERATIONAL AND LIFETIME FISCAL INCIDENCE / IRPP: INCIDENCE FISCALE DE LA DURÉE DE VIE ET ENTRE LES GÉNÉRATIONS

1. Simulation Data for Lifetime Fiscal Incidence Analysis
         Roderick Hill (University of New Brunswick)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 1:30 - 3:00, (?)
CEA / CWEN: WOMEN AND ECONOMIC POLICY / RCFE: LES FEMMES ET LA POLITIQUE ÉCONOMIQUE

Chair / Président: Roberta Robb (Brock University)

1. Tax Incidence in a Non-Market Setting: Taxation of Child Support and Alimony
         Glenn G. Feltham (Wilfrid Laurier University)
         Alan Macnaughton (University of Waterloo)
         Janice Buskard (Ernst & Young)
2. Part-Time versus Full-Time Work and Child Care: Evidence for Married Mothers in Canada
         Lisa M. Powell (Queen's University)
3. Gender and Social Security Policy: Pitfalls and Possibilities
         Martha Macdonald (Saint Mary's University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 1:30 - 3:00, Thistle 244
PANEL ON DECLINING ENROLMENTS IN ECONOMICS / GROUPE DE DISCUSSION SUR LA DIMINUTION DES INSCRIPTIONS EN SCIENCE ÉCONOMIQUE

Chair / Président: Avi J. Cohen (York University)

Panelists / Panélistes:
      Jeremiah Allen (University of Lethbridge)
      Morris Altman (University of Saskatchewan)
      Lorne Carmichael (Queen's University)
      Alan Harrison (McMaster University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 1:30 - 3:00, Taro 403
VALUING NON-MARKET COSTS AND BENEFITS / ESTIMATION DES COÛTS ET BÉNÉFICES HORS-MARCHÉ

1. A Note on the Value of Life and Non-Marginal Risk Changes
         El Bachir Belhadji (Université de Montréal)
2. The Economics of Site Investigation for Groundwater Protection
         Margaret Forsyth (University of Guelph)
3. Travel Cost Demand Methods: Discussion and Application to Backcountry Canoeing in Algonquin and Killarney Provincial Park
         Stephan Schott (University of Guelph)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 1:30 - 3:00, Taro 203
GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY / CROISSANCE ET PRODUCTIVITÉ

1. The Growth of Strategic Alliances in Canadian Industries: A Micro Analysis
         Sunder Magun (Centre for Trade Policy and Law, Carleton University)
2. Does Equipment Investment Boost Productivity Growth? An empirical investigation of Colombian manufacturing
         Alberto Isgut (University of Toronto)
3. Highway Infrastructure Investment and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Canadian Industries
         Bilkis R. Khanam (Transport Canada)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 1:30 - 3:00, Taro 303
FISCAL COMPETITION / COMPÉTITION FISCALE

Chair / Président: Jim Johnson (McMaster University)

1. Local Tax Base Endogeneity and Tax Competition: A Consideration of the Greater Toronto Area
         Wade Locke (Memorial University)
         Almos Tassonyi (Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs)
2. Fiscal Competition and Polluting Firms Location Under Incomplete Information
         Georges A. Tanguay (Université Laval)
3. Tax Exporting and Easing of Local Tax Burden
         Muhammed Nurul Islam (Concordia University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 1:30 - 3:00, Thistle 249
TOPICS IN APPLIED ECONOMICS / ÉCONOMIE APPLIQUÉE

1. A Comparison of Demand Specifications Estimated Using Canadian and United States Microdata
         Christopher J. Nicol (University of Regina)
2. Asymmetric Price Adjustment: Evidence from Canada
         Robert Amano (Bank of Canada)
         Nicholas Ricketts (Bank of Canada)
3. Statistical Inference for the Shorrocks-Sen Index of Poverty Intensity
         Kuan Xu (Dalhousie University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 1:30 - 3:00, Thistle 259
MONEY AND THE ECONOMY / LA MONNAIE ET L'ÉCONOMIE

1. The Liquidity Effect Revisited
         Michel Normandin (Université du Québec à Montréal)
         Louis Phaneuf (Université du Québec à Montréal)
2. A SVAR Model of Money in the Transmission Mechanism
         Marcel Kasumovich (Bank of Canada)
3. Day-of-the-Week Effect and the Overnight Money Market Efficiency
         Amir Kia (Carleton University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 1:30 - 3:00, Thistle 258
INTERREGIONAL LABOUR MOBILITY / MOBILITÉ INTERRÉGIONALE DE LA MAIN-D'OEUVRE

1. Worker Heterogeneity and the Regional Concentration of Production
         David Scoones (University of Texas at Austin)
2. Sectoral and Regional Costs of Employment, Terms of Trade Shocks and Policy Responses
         Lawrence Leger (Loughborough University)
         James D. Gaisford (University of Calgary)
3. Factor Mobility and Voting Patterns: Evidence from the 1988 ``Referendum'' on Canada-US Free Trade
         Eugene Beaulieu (Columbia University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 1:30 - 3:00, Taro 405
PRICE THEORY / THÉORIE DES PRIX

1. On Bargaining for an Indivisible Good
         Rod Garratt (University of California at Santa Barbara)
2. Ex ante Pricing with Bilateral Credit
         James Yetman (Queen's University)
         Shouyong Shi (Queen's University)
3. Spatial Cournot Competition and Agglomeration in a Model of Location Choice
         Barnali Gupta (University of Cincinnati)
         Debashis Pal (University of Cincinnati)
         Jyotirmoy Sarkar (University of Cincinnati)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 1:30 - 3:00, Thistle 248
FORECASTING / PRÉVISION

Chair / Président: Robert Vigfusson (Bank of Canada)

1. The USPM Model: A Small Forecasting Model for the United States
         Vincent Lépine (Department of Finance)
         Stéfane Marion (Department of Finance)
2. Are Real Exchange Rates Stationary? Some Evidence from Developing Countries
         Peter Sephton (University of New Brunswick)
3. Cyclical Asymmetries in Monetary Indicators
         Jeffrey Gable (Bank of Canada)
         Simon van Norden (Bank of Canada)
         Peter Thurlow (Bank of Canada)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 1:45 - 3:15, Taro 207
CSLS / CIRA: EMERGENCE OF SECTORAL COUNCILS IN CANADA / CONSEILS SECTORIELS

Chair / Président: Harish Jain (McMaster University)

1. Lessons from the Canadian Sector Council Experience
         Morley Gunderson (University of Toronto)
         Andrew Sharpe (Centre for the Study of Living Standards)
2. A Canadian Business Perspective on Sectoral Human Resource Councils
         Jock Finlayson (Business Council of British Columbia)
3. CSTEC: Old-Fashioned Labour-Management Cooperation or an Innovation in Joint Governance
         Anil Verma (University of Toronto)
         Kai Lamertz (University of Toronto)
         Peter Warrian (University of Toronto)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 3:20 - 4:50, Thistle 244
ENDOGENOUS GROWTH: EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES / CROISSANCE ENDOGÈNE: ESTIMATIONS EMPIRIQUES

1. Do Borders Matter for Social Capital? Economic Growth and Civic Culture in U.S. States and Canadian Provinces
         John F. Helliwell (University of British Columbia)
2. The Empirical Evidence for Two Sector Endogenous Growth Models
         Dajin Li (Carleton University)
3. Growth and Welfare in an Endogenous Growth Model with Government Spending and Taxation
         Jing Xu (Department of Finance)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 3:20 - 4:50, Taro 303
PUBLIC PENSIONS / FONDS DE PENSION PUBLICS

1. Social Security and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence
         Jie Zhang (Victoria University of Wellington)
         Junsen Zhang (Victoria University of Wellington)
2. Social Security with Demographic Effects
         Herb Emery (University of Calgary)
         Ian Rongve (University of Regina)
3. The Economics of Canada Pension Plan Reforms
         Steven James (Department of Finance)
         Humam Sakhnini (Department of Finance)
         Chris Matier (Department of Finance)
         Munir Sheikh (Department of Finance)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 3:20 - 4:50, Taro 203
INTERNATIONAL TRADE / COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL

1. Trade Orientation, Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Some New Evidence
         Sal Amirkhalkhali (Saint Mary's University)
         Atul Dar (Saint Mary's University)
2. Intermediate Goods and the International Business Cycle
         Steve Ambler (Université du Québec à Montréal)
         Emanuela Cardia (Université de Montréal)
         Christian Zimmermann (Université du Québec à Montréal)
3. Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Free Trade Areas and Customs Unions
         Robert Waschik (Wilfrid Laurier University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 3:20 - 4:50, Thistle 248
TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES / STRUCTURE DES TAUX D'INTÉRÊT SELON L'ÉCHÉANCE

1. Why Does the Longer Maturity Term Structure Help Predict Inflation?
         Colin R. Telmer (Queen's University)
2. The Yield Spread and Economic Activity
         Walid Hejazi (University of Toronto)
3. The Term Structure of Interest Rates, Risk Premia, Inflation Regimes and Learning
         John M. Maheu (Queen's University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 3:20 - 4:50, Taro 403
INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION THEORY / ORGANISATION INDUSTRIELLE THÉORIQUE

1. Leaders and Followers in Price/Quality Competition: Hotelling's Stability in Competition Transmuted
         J.M. Alec Gee (Edinburgh University)
2. Does Quantity Precommitment with Rapid Price Adjustment Yield Cournot Outcomes?
         Hugo A. Hopenhayn (University of Rochester)
         Charles Ka Yui Leung (University of Rochester)
3. Subsidizing the Competition
         Aidan Hollis (University of Toronto)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 3:20 - 4:50, Thistle 258
WAGES, EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY / TRAVAIL PARTAGÉ, PARTAGE DES PROFITS ET PRODUCTIVITÉ

1. Payroll Taxes in Canada and the Impacts on Employment, Wages, Outputs and Prices
         Michael Abbott (Queen's University)
         Charles Beach (Queen's University)
         Zhengxi Lin (Statistics Canada)
         Garnett Picot (Statistics Canada)
2. Profit-Sharing, Efficiency Wages and Employment Stability: Evidence Using Canadian Plant Level Data
         Timothy D. Cook (University of Toronto)
3. Wage Flexibility and Contract Structure in Germany
         Lars Vilhuber (University of Montreal, CRDE and CIRANO)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 3:20 - 4:50, Taro 346
TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION / TECHNOLOGIE ET INNOVATION

1. Adoption and Diffusion of Technological Innovations: Informational Externalities and Strategic Delay
         Wulong Gu (University of Saskatchewan)
2. Changes in the Composition of Employment in Canadian Manufacturing and the Effects of Technology on Wage Differentials between Production and Nonproduction Workers
         John R. Baldwin (Statistics Canada)
         Mohammed Rafiquzzaman (Statistics Canada)
3. Employment in the Innovative Economy
         Surendra Gera (Industry Canada)
         Philippe Massé (Human Resources Development Canada)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 3:20 - 4:50, Thistle 315
IMMIGRATION AND LABOUR MARKETS I / IMMIGRATION ET MARCHÉ DU TRAVAIL I

1. Labor Supply Assimilation of Married Immigrant Women: A case study of Canada
         Urvashi Dhawan (Memorial University)
2. Labour Supply of Households with Migrants: Evidence from the Philippines
         Edgard R. Rodriguez (University of Toronto)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 3:20 - 4:50, Thistle 259
BANKING AND FINANCE / FINANCE ET BANQUE

1. Three C's of Canadian Banking: Conduct, Competition, and Concentration
         John McCallum (Royal Bank)
2. Banking Sector Fragility and Currency Crises: Some Recent Episodes
         Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo (International Monetary Fund)
         Ceyla Pazarbasioglu (International Monetary Fund)
         Bob Billings (Finance Canada)
3. Inflation, Financial Development and Income Distribution
         Jack Carr (University of Toronto)
         Kam Hon Chu (Memorial University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 3:20 - 4:50, Thistle 249
MR. KEYNES AND HIS CONTEMPORARIES: SUGGESTED INTERPRETATION / M. KEYNES ET SES CONTEMPORAINS: UNE INTERPRÉTATION

Chair / Président: Scott Gordon (Queen's University and Indiana University)

1. On the Keynesian Theory of Banking and Keynes's Monetary Theory of Value
         Tom K. Rymes (Carleton University)
         Colin Rogers (Carleton University)
2. Did Robbins Recant?
         Susan Howson (University of Toronto)
3. Mr. Keynes and His Contemporaries
         Gilles Dostaler (Université du Québec à Montréal)
4. Keynes, Fisher, and the Corridor of Stability
         Robert Dimand (Brock University)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 3:20 - 4:50, Taro 405
THEORY OF THE FIRM I / THÉORIE DE LA FIRME I

1. Incomplete Contracts and Cooperative Investments
         Tai-Yeong Chung (University of Rochester)
         Yeon-Koo Che (University of Rochester)
2. The Free-Rider Problem in Takeovers
         Mingtao Chen (University of Ottawa)
3. Investment Decisions under Uncertainty - The Case of Regulated Firms
         Milan Jayasinghe (University of Ottawa)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 5:00 - 6:15, Thistle 325
HAROLD INNIS LECTURE / CONFÉRENCE HAROLD INNIS

Chair / Président: Robin Boadway (Queen's University)

PRESENTATION OF THE JOHN RAE PRIZE / PRÉSENTATION DU PRIX JOHN RAE INTRODUCTION OF INNIS LECTURER:
Lorne Carmichael (Queen's University)

Speaker / Conférencier:
      Bentley MacLeod (Boston College and Université de Montréal)

FRIDAY MAY 31 / VENDREDI 31 MAI, 6:30, Residence Dining Hall
RECEPTION OF THE PRESIDENT OF BROCK UNIVERSITY / RÉCEPTION DU PRÉSIDENT DE L'UNIVERSITÉ BROCK

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Thistle 258
CABE PANEL: TRADE AND INVESTMENT: CAN CANADA EXPAND ITS TRADE SUCCESS BEYOND THE U.S.? / PROFITER DES OCCASIONS: LE CANADA PEUT-IL ÉTENDRE SON COMMERCE AU-DELÀ DES ÉTATS-UNIS

Chair / Président: Sandy Greig (Canadian International Trade Tribunal)

Panelists / Panélistes:
      Sam Boutziouvis (Business Council on National Issues)
      Michael Hart (Carleton University and University of Ottawa)
      Alan Rugman (University of Toronto)
      Prakesh Sharma (Department of Foreign Affairs and national Trade)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Thistle 249
THE INTERFACE OF TRADE REMEDY LAWS AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS / L'INTERFACE ENTRE LA LÉGISLATION PRO- COMMERCE INTERNATIONALE ET L'ANALYSE ÉCONOMIQUE

Chair / Président: O. Yul Kwon (Griffith University)

1. Interface of the Anti-dumping and Countervailing Duty Laws and Economic Analysis: Canadian Perspectives on the Injury-Causality Test
         O. Yul Kwon (Griffith University)
         Ihn Ho Uhm (Canadian International Trade Tribunal)
2. The Economic Approach to Injury Determination in Dumping and Countervailing Duty Cases: State of the Modelling Art 1996
         Richard Boltuck (Trade Resources Company)
3. Conflict Between U.S. Domestic and Trade Policies: U.S. -- Canada Durum Wheat Disputes
         Won W. Koo (North Dakota State University)
4. Partial Equilibrium Modelling under Imperfect Competition: An Application to Dumping
         Keith Hall (U.S. International Trade Commission)
         Craig Schulman (U.S. International Trade Commission and University of Arkansas)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 303
EMPIRICAL INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS / ÉCONOMIE INTERNATIONALE EMPIRIQUE

1. A New Canadian International Trade Model: An Application of Error-Correction Models
         Richard Stuart (Department of Finance)
2. Factors Determining the Location of Canada Direct Foreign Investment
         Emmanuel Nyahoho (Université du Québec à Montréal)
3. The Aggregation Bias of Intra Industry Trade
         Gregory T. Papanikos (University of Crete)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Thistle 307
REFORMS IN TRANSITIONAL AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES / RÉFORMES DANS LES ÉCONOMIES EN TRANSITION ET EN VOIE DE DÉVELOPPEMENT

1. Economic Reforms and Endogenous Credibility Problem
         Ram Acharya (University of Ottawa)
         Milan Jayasinghe (University of Ottawa)
2. An Open-Economy Transition Model for Eastern Europe
         Debra Moore Patterson (Trinity University)
3. Regional Patterns in Chinese Development Since 1978
         Marion E. Jones (University of Regina)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 203
WAGES, CONTRACTS AND INCENTIVES / SALAIRES, CONTRATS ET INCITATIF

1. Incentive Compatible Unemployment Insurance
         David Andolfatto (University of Waterloo)
         Ed Nosal (University of Waterloo)
2. World Food Aid, Labor Disincentives, and Production Decisions in a Small Open Economy
         Patrick N. Osakwe (Queen's University)
3. Survival of the Unfittest: How Dodos Become Managers
         Edward Kutsoati (Queen's University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 307
CULTURE, COMMUNICATIONS, AND THE INFORMATION HIGHWAY/CULTURE / COMMUNICATIONS ET LÍNFOROUTE

1. Composers and Copyright
         Michael Rushton (University of Regina)
2. Universality Issues in the Information Highway
         George Sciadas (Statistics Canada)
3. Holding the Line: The CRTC and the Pricing of Canadian Cable Television Services
         Stephen M. Law (University of New Brunswick)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 309
TOPICS IN PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY / FOURNITURE DES SERVICES PUBLICS

1. The Performance of Performance Standards: The Effects of JTPA Performance Standards on Efficiency, Equity, and Participant Outcomes
         James J. Heckman (University of Western Ontario)
         Jeffrey A. Smith (University of Western Ontario)
2. The Impact of Low Income and Family Status on Child Health
         Martin Dooley (McMaster University)
         David H. Feeny (McMaster University)
         Lori Curtis (McMaster University)
         Ellen L. Lipman (McMaster University)
3. Social Assistance Caseloads: An Empirical Macro Study
         Derek Hermanutz (Alberta Treasury)
         Grant Smith (Alberta Treasury)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 207
IMMIGRATION AND LABOUR MARKETS II / TRAVAIL IMMIGRATION ET MARCHÉ DU

1. New Evidence of Immigrant Assimilation in Canada
         Mary L. Grant (University of Toronto)
2. Economic Effects of Immigration: British Columbia 1871 - 1995
         Sajjad Akbar (University of Victoria)
         Peter Dunnett (Royal Military College)
3. Employment and Unemployment Experience of Immigrants and Their Usage of the UI Program
         Arun S. Roy (Human Resources Development Canada)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 405
CEANA: EXCHANGE RATES AND FINANCIAL MARKETS IN EAST ASIAN ECONOMIES / TAUX DE CHANGE ET MARCHÉS FINANCIERS DANS LES ÉCONOMIES D'ASIE ORIENTALE

Chair / Président: Hong Hwang (Academia Sinica/National Taiwan University)

1. Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activities: The Case of Singapore
         Y.K. Tse (National University of Singapore)
2. Some Thoughts on China's 1995 Bank Reform
         Kui-wai Li (Hong Kong City Polytechnic University)
3. Are the Panel Data a Solution for Testing Purchasing Power Parity?
         Peter C. Liu (University of Miami)
4. Internationalization of the Singapore Dollar: The Case for a Loan Quota with a Modified Tobin Tax
         Kenneth S. Chan (McMaster University)
         Kee-Jin Ngiam (National University of Singapore)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 403
ENERGY ECONOMICS / ÉCONOMIE DE L'ÉNERGIE

Chair / Président: Frank Flatters (Queen's University)

1. Behavourial Modelling by Dynamic Programming: An Oil Extraction Problem
         Eric Ah Lik Li (Deakin University)
2. Forecast of Energy Consumption in Malaysia
         Robert N. McRae (University of Calgary)
3. The Impact of Electric Power on Productivity: The Case of Japanese Manufacturing 1965-1988
         Bernard Beaudreau (Laval University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Thistle 259
MINIMUM WAGES AND LABOUR MARKET POLICIES / SALAIRES MINIMUMS

Chair / Président: Michael Abbott (Queen's University)

1. The Effect of the Minimum Wage on the Canadian Wage Distribution
         David A. Green (University of British Columbia)
         Harry Paarsch (University of British Columbia)
2. The Effect of Minimum Wage on Youth Employment in Canada: Evidence from the LMAS
         Terence Yuen (University of Toronto)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Thistle 258
CABE PANEL: COMPETITION IN COMMUNICATIONS: ISSUES, POLICIES AND PROSPECTS / LA COMPÉTITION DANS LE SECTEUR DES COMMUNICATIONS: ENJEUX, POLITIQUES ET PERSPECTIVES

Chair / Président: Carl Beigie (McGill University)

Panelists / Panélistes:
      Maurice Estabrooks (Canadian International Centre for mation Technology and Telecommunications)
      Dale Orr (Economic Analysis Associates)
      David Watt (Canadian Cable Television Association)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 403
BANK OF CANADA MAY 1996 MONETARY POLICY REPORT / RAPPORT DE MAI 1996 DE LA BANQUE DU CANADA SUR LA POLITIQUE MONÉTAIRE

Chair / Président: Tom Rymes (Carleton University)

Panelists / Panélistes:
      Charles Freedman (Bank of Canada)
      Robert Lucas (University of Saskatchewan)
      Angela Redish (University of British Columbia)
      Pierre Fortin (Université du Québec à éal)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 303
AWARDING OF DOUGLAS PURVIS MEMORIAL PRIZE / ATTRIBUTION DU PRIX COMMÉMORATAIF DOUG PURVIS

Chair / Président: Richard Harris (Simon Fraser University)

Presentation by the Award Winner (Name to be Announced)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 309
EMPIRICAL MACROECONOMICS / MACROÉCONOMIE EMPIRIQUE

1. An Event Study of the Quebec Referendum Campaign: The Announcement of Opinion Polls and their Impact on the Canadian Bond Market
         David Johnson (Wilfrid Laurier University)
         Darren McIlwraith (Wilfrid Laurier University)
2. Aggregate Disturbances or Sectoral Shifts: Canadian Evidence
         Jing Lu (York University)
3. Phase-Dependent Monetary and Fiscal Policies
         Andrew J. Filardo (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Thistle 307
UNCERTAINTY AND THE PUBLIC SECTOR / INCERTITUDE ET SECTEUR PUBLIC

1. Provincial Budget Responses to Fiscal Shocks: An Empirical Investigation of Alberta
         Ron Kneebone (University of Calgary)
         Ken McKenzie (University of Calgary)
2. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Perceived Riskiness of Government Debt: Some Canadian Evidence
         Todd Mattina (Department of Finance)
         François Delorme (Department of Finance)
3. Measuring the Riskiness of Tax Revenue and Governmental Outlays
         Syed M. Ahsan (Concordia University)
         Peter Tsigaris (University College of Cariboo)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 307
ECONOMICS AND CRIME / ÉCONOMIE DU CRIME

1. An Econometric Evaluation of North American Drunk Driving Legislation
         Anindya Sen (University of Toronto)
2. Private Enforcement Revisited
         Nuno Garoupa (University of York)
3. An Economic Model of Domestic Violence
         JoAnn Kingston-Riechers (McMaster University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 207
EXCHANGE RATES IN EUROPE / TAUX DE CHANGE EN EUROPE

1. Conditional Leptokurtosis and Non-Linear Dependence in Exchange Rate Returns
         Guglielmo Maria Caporale (London Business School)
         Christis Hassapis (University of Cyprus)
         Nikitas Pittis (University of Cyprus)
2. Exchange Rate Target Zone Models: A Bayesian Evaluation
         Kai Li (University of Toronto)
3. The ERM Crises of 1992/93: Consequences for the Maastricht Process
         Patrick Crowley (Saint Mary's University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 405
INCOMES OF THE SALARIED AND THE SELF EMPLOYED / REVENUS DES SALARIÉS ET DES TRAVAILLEURS AUTONOMES

Chair / Président: Jean Kimmel (W.E. Upjohn Institute)

1. Executive Compensation and Managerial Incentive: A Comparison Between Canada and the United States
         Xianming Zhou (University of Toronto)
2. Physician Remuneration: Fee-for-service to capitation?
         Ugurhan G. Berkok (Royal Military College of Canada)
3. The Distribution of Self-Employment Income in the UK, 1976-91
         Simon C. Parker (University of Durham)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 259
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE / ASSURANCE CHÔMAGE

1. Unemployment Insurance: Duration Until Take-Up
         Arthur Sweetman (University of Victoria)
2. Violence and the Optimality of Unemployment Insurance
         Stéphane Pallage (Université du Québec à Montréal)
         Christian Zimmermann (Université du Québec à Montréal)
3. Unemployment Insurance Reform: A Focused Approach to Social Policy
         Oliver Franke (Alberta Treasury)
         Derek Hermanutz (Alberta Treasury)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Thistle 249
SYMPOSIUM ON ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND ANTI-DUMPING LAWS / SYMPOSIUM SUR L'ANALYSE ÉCONOMIQUE ET LA LÉGISLATION ANTI-DUMPING

Chair / Président: John A. Greig (Canadian International Trade Tribunal)

Panelists / Panélistes:
      Ronald A. Cass (Boston University)
      Michael J. Finger (World Bank)
      Michael Knoll (University of Southern California)
      Kathleen E. Macmillan (International Trade Policy ltant Inc.)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 12:00 - 1:30, Residence Dining Hall
DOUG PURVIS MEMORIAL LUNCHEON / DÉJEUNER COMMÉMORATIF DOUG PURVIS

1. INTRODUCTION OF LUNCHEON SPEAKER:
         Craig Riddell (University of British Columbia)
2. SPEAKER / CONFÉRENCIER:
         David Card (Princeton University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 1:30 - 3:00, Thistle 258
TEACHING ECONOMICS / ENSEIGNER L'ÉCONOMIQUE

Chair / Président: Angela Redish (University of British Columbia)

1. You've Read the Book, Now Watch the Video: The Effect of Alternative Delivery Methods on Students' Performance in Introductory Economics
         Alan Harrison (McMaster University)
         William Scarth (McMaster University)
2. Examination Pattern and Performance in Introductory Economics: A Case Study
         Bagala Biswal (Memorial University)
         Urvashi Dhawan (Memorial University)
         Wade Locke (Memorial University)
3. Class Size and Achievement in Introductory Economics: Evidence from the TUCE III Data
         Peter Kennedy (Simon Fraser University)
         John Siegfried (Simon Fraser University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 1:30 - 3:00, Taro 309
HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT I / HISTOIRE DE LA PENSÉE ÉCONOMIQUE I

Chair / Président: Syed Ahmad (McMaster University)

1. On the Correspondence Between Habermasian Ethics and Smithian Sentiments
         Kenneth L. Avio (University of Victoria)
         Susan C. Pegler (University of Victoria)
2. The Issue of Female Agency in Classical Economic Thought, from Adam Smith to John Stuart Mill
         Ronald G. Bodkin (University of Ottawa)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 1:30 - 3:00, Taro 303
TRADE THEORY / THÉORIE DU COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL

1. An Examination of Import Protection as Export Promotion
         Anming Zhang (University of Victoria)
         Yimin Zhang (University of Victoria)
2. Efficiency Wage Unemployment and the Theory of International Trade
         Albert G. Schweinberger (University of Konstanz)
3. External Economies of Experience and North-South Trade
         Michael Benarroch (University of Winnipeg)
         James D. Gaisford (University of Calgary)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 1:30 - 3:00, Taro 403
TAX REFORM: EFFICIENCY AND DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS / RÉFORME FISCALE: EFFICIENCE ET EFFETS REDISTRIBUTIFS

1. How to Assess the Inequality of Negative Income Tax Proposals
         Tracy Lynch (University of Guelph)
2. Efficiency and Redistributional Effects of Flat Tax Proposals: A General Equilibrium Approach
         Louis Beauséjour (Department of Finance)
         G.C. Ruggeri (Department of Finance)
         Baxter Williams (Department of Finance)
3. Efficiency Gains from a Distributionally-Neutral Flat Tax in Canada
         Don Van Wart (Alberta Treasury)
         Robert Howard (Alberta Treasury)
         Shaun Peddie (Alberta Treasury)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 1:30 - 3:00, Thistle 249
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND HUMAN CAPITAL / CROISSANCE ET CAPITAL HUMAIN

1. Human Capital Re-Tooling and the Business Cycle
         Ian King (University of Victoria)
         Arthur Sweetman (University of Victoria)
2. Government, Productivity Growth and Technology Diffusion in a Human Vintage Model
         Shandre Mugan Thangavelu (Queen's University)
3. Endogenous Productivity Growth with Capital-Embodied Technological Change
         Harry Bloch (University of Tasmania)
         Gary Madden (Curtin University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 1:30 - 3:00, Thistle 307
DEMAND FOR MONEY / DEMANDE DE MONNAIE

1. The Long-Run Demand for M1
         Scott Hendry (Bank of Canada)
2. Money Demand Responsiveness to the Rate of Return on Money: Some Evidence for Canada
         George J. Georgopoulos (University of Toronto)
3. Let's Pay Attention to M1
         Joseph Atta-Mensah (Bank of Canada)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 1:30 - 3:00, Thistle 259
INCOME INEQUALITY OVER TIME / ANALYSE DE REVENUS TEMPORELLE DES INÉGALITÉS

1. Intergenerational Changes in the Distribution of Household Income in Canada
         Peter Ibbott (University of Toronto)
2. Unto the Sons: The Intergenerational Income Mobility of Canadian Men
         Miles Corak (Statistics Canada)
         Andrew Heisz (Statistics Canada)
3. Longitudinal Aspects of Earnings Inequality in Canada
         René Morissette (Statistics Canada)
         Charles Bérubé (Statistics Canada)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 1:30 - 3:00, Taro 203
THE THEORY OF THE FIRM II / TRAVAILLEURS RELOCALISÉS ET POLITIQUES

Chair / Président: Larry Levine (University of New Brunswick)

1. Replacement Laws, Strikes and Wages
         Jean Farès (Université de Montréal)
         Jacques Robert (Université de Montréal)
2. The Effects of Asymmetric Information and Uncertainty on the Financing Decision of Firms
         Denise Tambanis (Queen's University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 1:30 - 3:00, Taro 307
TAXES AND REAL BUSINESS CYCLES / TAXATION ET CYCLES ÉCONOMIQUES RÉELS

1. Distortionary Taxation in International Real Business Cycle Models
         Norma Kozhaya (Université de Montréal)
         Emanuela Cardia (Université de Montréal)
2. Delayed Income Taxation and the Business Cycle
         Christian Zimmermann (Université du Québec à Montréal)
3. Taxation Analysis in a Real Business Cycle Model with Human Capital
         Alain Guay (Department of Finance)
         Marcel Mérette (Department of Finance)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 1:30 - 3:00, Taro 207
EXCHANGE RATES / TAUX DE CHANGE

1. Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Deficits on Exchange Rates and Current Account Deficits
         Jahanara Begum (Queen's University)
2. Credit Market Imperfections and Nominal Exchange Rate Regimes
         Wai-Ming Ho (University of Waterloo)
3. A Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate Under Asymmetric Information
         Christopher D'Souza (Queen's University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 1:30 - 3:00, Taro 203
TOPICS IN ECONOMETRICS / ÉCONOMÉTRIE

Chair / Président: Henry Bartel (York University)

1. Simulation Based Finite and Large Sample Inference Methods in Simultaneous Equations
         Jean-Marie Dufour (Université de Montréal)
         Linda Khalaf (Université de Montréal)
2. A Simple Bayesian Method for Estimation of the Regression Models with MA(q) Errors
         Zhengming Cao (University of Toronto)
3. Testing for Mean Reversion Under a Fractionally Differenced Population Distribution
         Walid Hejazi (University of Toronto)
         Jack Parkinson (University of Toronto)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 3:00 - 5:00, New Rez Lounge 300
ECSA / AECE: EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION, PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

1. European Economic and Monetary Union as a Historical Structure: Globalization and the Problem of Macroeconomic Coordination
         Panayiotis Damskopolous (York University)
2. The Democratic Deficit of the EMU: Who Governs the Domestic Economy?
         Amy Verdun (Essex University)
3. The Final Stage of European Monetary Union: Economic Issues and Political Controversies
         Patrick Crowley (Saint Mary's University)
4. European Monetary Integration
         Robert E. Ankli (University of Guelph)
         Hank Brand (Leeuwarden Business School)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 3:20 - 4:50, Thistle 258
CSLS PANEL: SERVICE SECTOR PRODUCTIVITY AND THE PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX / LA PRODUCTIVITÉ DU SECTEUR DES SERVICES

Chair / Président: Alice Nakamura (University of Alberta)

1. The Productivity Paradox: A Review of the Literature
         Andrew Sharpe (Centre for the Study of Living Standards)
2. Problems in the Measurement of Output and Productivity Changes in the Service Sectors
         Jim Melvin (University of Waterloo)
3. Measuring Output and Productivity in Canadian Service Industries
         Pierre Mercier (Statistics Canada)
4. Lagging Productivity Growth in the Service Sector: Mismeasurement, Mismanagement or Misinformation?
         Dinah Maclean (Bank of Canada)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 3:20 - 4:50, Thistle 249
TEACHING ECONOMICS: THE 3-M TEACHING AWARD WINNERS / ENSEIGNER L'ÉCONOMIQUE: LES LAURÉATS DU PRIX 3-M

Chair / Président: Avi J. Cohen (York University)

Panelists / Panélistes:
      Avi J. Cohen (York University)
      David Foote (University of Toronto)
      Peter Kennedy (Simon Fraser University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 3:20 - 4:50, Taro 303
TRADE, EXTERNALITIES AND PUBLIC GOODS / COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL / EXTERNALITÉS ET BIENS PUBLICS

1. Trade, Spatial Separation, and the Environment
         Brian R. Copeland (University of British Columbia)
         M. Scott Taylor (University of British Columbia)
2. International Trade and the Environment: An Empirical Study
         Werner Antweiler (University of British Columbia)
3. International Trade and Supply of Public Goods in the Presence of Variable Returns to Scale
         Sajid Anwar (Northern Territory University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 3:20 - 4:50, Taro 307
TAXES AND GROWTH / TAXATION ET CROISSANCE

1. A Sceptical Note on Recent Tax-Reform Proposals
         William Scarth (McMaster University)
2. Income Distribution and Growth
         Marcel Mérette (Department of Finance)
         Ricardo Paes de Barros (Yale University)
3. Capital Gains Tax as an Inflation Tax in a Life-Cycle Model
         Charles Ka Yui Leung (University of Rochester)
         Gaung-Jia Zhang (University of Guelph)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 3:20 - 4:50, Thistle 259
HOUSING AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT / INVESTISSEMENTS RÉSIDENTIEL ET COMMERCIAL

1. The Effect of Credit Market Imperfections on Investment Spending
         Charleen Adam (Bank of Canada)
2. Differences Between Housing Transactions Prices and Housing Stock Prices: Evidence from the Price Crash of 1991
         Marion Steele (University of Guelph)
         Richard Goy (University of Guelph)
3. An Empirical Model of Household Expenditures for Canada
         Jian-Guo Cao (Department of Finance)
         Benoît Robidoux (Department of Finance) DISC DISC

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 3:20 - 4:50, Taro 203
TRAINING AND LABOUR MARKETS / FORMATION ET MARCHÉ DU TRAVAIL

1. Who Gets Private-Sector Training?
         Bob Billings (Department of Finance)
2. Technology Use, Training, and Plant-Specific Knowledge in Manufacturing Establishments
         John Baldwin (Statistics Canada)
3. Causal Effects in Non-Experimental Studies: Re-Evaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs
         Rajeev H. Dehejia (Harvard University)
         Sadek Wahba (Harvard University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 3:20 - 4:50, Taro 309
HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT II / HISTOIRE DE LA PENSÉE ÉCONOMIQUE II

1. Individual and Society in Rae, Lauderdale and Smith
         Syed Ahmad (McMaster University)
2. Impatience, Self-Reliance and Intertemporal Decision Making in Early Neoclassical Thought
         Sandra J. Peart (Baldwin-Wallace College)
3. The Notion of Equilibrium in Economics: Beyond Frank Hahn
         Larry Levine (University of New Brunswick)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 3:20 - 4:50, Taro 207
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE / TAUX DE CHÔMAGE

1. An Analysis of the Components of the Natural Rate of Unemployment
         Timothy C. Sargent (Department of Finance)
2. A Longitudinal Approach to the Empirical Analysis of Permanent Layoffs in Canada
         Garnett Picot (Statistics Canada)
         Z. Lin (Statistics Canada)
         W. Pyper (Statistics Canada)
3. Increase in the Unemployment Rate in Canada in Post-1973 Compared to the 1966-73
         M. Selim (Mount Allison University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 3:20 - 4:50, Taro 403
TOPICS IN GAME THEORY / THÉORIE MICROÉCONOMIQUE

1. A Strategic Model of Grade Inflation
         Paul M. Anglin (University of Windsor)
         Ron Meng (University of Windsor)
2. Allocating Awards Across Noncomparable Categories
         Lonnie Magee (McMaster University)
         Michael Veall (McMaster University)
3. On Evolution, Irrational Behavior and Subgame Perfection
         B. Curtis Eaton (Simon Fraser University)
         William G. Morrison (Wilfrid Laurier University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 3:20 - 4:50, Taro 405
FAIRNESS, SANCTIONS AND PUBLIC GOODS PROVISION /

1. The Effects of Costly Monitoring and Sanctioning Upon Common Property Resource Appropriation
         Rob Moir (University of New Brunswick)
2. An Experimental Investigation of Preferences for Fairness in the Provision of Public Goods: Does Income Equality or Cost/Benefit Proportionality Matter?
         Jeremy Clark (Cornell University)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 5:00 - 6:15, Thistle 247
PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS / DISCOURS DE LE PRÉSIDENT

Chair / Président: Alice Nakamura (University of Alberta)

Speaker / Conférencier:
      Pierre Fortin (Université du Québec à Montréal)

SATURDAY JUNE 1 / SAMEDI 1 JUIN, 6:15, Jubilee Hospitality Tent
RECEPTION HOSTED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS OF BROCK UNIVERSITY / RÉCEPTION DONNÉE PAR LE DÉPARTEMENT D'ÉCONOMIQUE DE BROCK UNIVERSITÉ

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, ED 204
CEA / CHA: LABOUR MARKET PERSPECTIVES ON RAILWAY WORKERS, 1890-1939 / LES PERSPECTIVES SUR LE MARCHÉ DU TRAVAIL POUR LES TRAVAILLEURS DE L'INDUSTRIE FERROVIAIRE, 1890-1939

Chair / Président: Bill Marr (Wilfrid Laurier University)

1. Promotions and Demotions at the Canadian Pacific Railway, 1903-1939
         Barton Hamilton (McGill University)
         Mary MacKinnon (McGill University)
2. The Intercolonial Railway and Atlantic Canadian Labour Markets
         Ken Cruikshank (McMaster University)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 303
CEA / CABE PANEL: PENSION FINANCING: IS IT A DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN OR A POLICY PROBLEM WITH A SOLUTION? / LE FINANCEMENT DES PENSIONS: UN DÉSASTRE IMMINENT OU UN PROBLÈME DE POLITIQUES POUR LEQUEL UNE SOLUTION EXISTE

Chair / Président: Leo de Bever (Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board)

Panelists / Panélistes:
      Robert Brown (University of Waterloo)
      David Slater (Economic Consultant)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 307
MARGINAL EFFECTIVE TAX RATES / TAUX MARGINAUX EFFECTIFS DE TAXATION

1. Marginal Effective Corporate Income Tax Rates in Canada
         K. Mang (Department of Finance)
         G.C. Ruggeri (Department of Finance)
         Baxter Williams (Department of Finance)
2. Evaluating the Distortionary Effects of Corporate Income Taxation in Canada
         Louis Beauséjour (Department of Finance)
         Baxter Williams (Department of Finance)
3. Provincial Tax Changes and Marginal Tax Rates, 1986 and 1993
         Robert Howard (Alberta Treasury)
         Don Van Wart (Alberta Treasury)
         G.C. Ruggeri (Department of Finance)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Thistle 405
COMMON PROPERTY RESOURCES / RESSOURCES NATURELLES DE PROPRIÉTÉ COMMUNE

1. Cooperative and Non-Cooperative Exploitation of the Arcto-Norwegian Cod Stock in the Barents Sea
         Ussif Rashid Sumaila (University of Bergen and University of British Columbia)
2. The Cost of Carbon Dioxide Abatement in China
         Stephen Wilkinson (University of Guelph)
3. The Carbon Cycle and the Value of Canadian Forests
         Mohammed Dore (Brock University)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:30, Taro 309
ISSUES IN POLITICAL ECONOMY / QUESTIONS D'ÉCONOMIE POLITIQUE

1. International Trade Policies: A Game Theoretic Approach with Special Interest Groups and Optimizing Politicians
         Ram Acharya (University of Ottawa)
2. Redistribution Through Education
         Eric Hanushek (University of Rochester)
         Ban Chuan Cheah (University of Rochester)
         Charles Ka Yui Leung (University of Rochester)
3. Legislative or Constitutional Fiscal Rules
         Gaétan Pilon (Department of Finance)
         Patricia Brunnen (Department of Finance)
4. Political Support for Passive Labour Market Policy: An Empirical Test
         David M. Gray (University of Ottawa)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 207
SAVINGS AND RISK AVERSION / ÉPARGNE ET AVERSION AU RISQUE

1. Precautionary Saving and Portfolio Allocation: DP by GMM
         Marc-André Letendre (Queen's University)
         Gregor Smith (Queen's University)
2. Substitution, Risk Aversion, Taste Shocks and Equity Premia
         Michel Normandin (Université du Québec à Montréal)
         Pascal St-Amour (Université Laval)
3. How Long Would It Take an American Neoclassical Post-War Representative Agent to Stop Worrying that Capitalism was Doomed?
         Michael Sampson (Concordia University)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Thistle 249
VOLATILITY AND FINANCIAL SIGNALLING / VOLATILITÉ ET SIGNAUX FINANCIERS

1. Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Detect Bubbles?
         Simon van Norden (Bank of Canada)
         Robert Vigfusson (Bank of Canada)
2. Financial Signal Processing
         Barbara M. Jamieson (University of Alberta)
3. Testing for Monthly Effects in 10 Major Exchange Rates and Their Volatilities
         Graham Pugh (CIBC-Wood Gundy)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Thistle 240
INCOME AND CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY / INÉGALITÉ DU REVENU ET DE LA CONSOMMATION

1. The Poor, the Young, and the Less-Educated: Why Did These Groups Fare so Badly During the 1980s?
         Fiona MacPhail (University of Northern British Columbia)
2. Distributional Consequences of Post-Secondary Education Funding in Canada (1975-1993)
         Jim Cirello (University of Guelph)
3. On the Distribution of Income of Individuals and Family Units
         Fazley K. Siddiq (Dalhousie University)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Thistle 307
MACRO POLICIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES / POLITIQUES MACROÉCONOMIQUES DANS LES PAYS EN VOIE DE DÉVELOPPEMENT

1. The Impact of Devaluation on Macroeconomic Performance: The Case of Ethiopia
         Haile K. Taye (University of Ottawa)
2. Monetary Vs. Fiscal Policy: Some Evidence from Vector Autoregression for India
         Mohammed Ansari (Athabasca University)
3. Symmetric and Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Public Expenditures: The Case of Iran
         Kazem Yavari (University of Toronto)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 8:30 - 10:00, Taro 403
FISCAL FEDERALISM / FÉDÉRALISME FISCAL

1. Stabilisation and Insurance Benefits of Federal System
         Humam Sakhnini (Department of Finance)
         Steven James (Department of Finance)
         Munir Sheikh (Department of Finance)
2. The Canada Health and Social Transfer: Thoughtful Reform or More Troublesome Tinkering
         Tracy R. Snoddon (Wilfrid Laurier University)
3. Dividing the Canada Health and Social Transfer: The Revenue Share Allocator
         Derek Hermanutz (Alberta Treasury)
         Grant Robertson (Alberta Treasury)
         Grant Smith (Alberta Treasury)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, ED 304
CEA / CHA: CANADA'S WOODEN AGE: MANUFACTURING IN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO /L'ÂGE D'OR DU BOIS AU CANADA: LE SECTEUR MANUFACTURIER AU QUÉBEC ET EN ONTARIO

Chair / Président: Tony Ward (Brock University)

1. Region and Industry in Nineteenth-Century Quebec
         Jean Martin (Société d'histoire de Longueuil)
2. Ontario Wood Manufacturing, 1870-90
         Ben Forster (University of Western Ontario)
         Kris Inwood (University of Guelph)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 303
CABE PANEL: EQUALIZATION IN CANADA: EQUITY AND EFFICIENCY / PÉRÉQUATION AU CANADA: ÉQUITÉ ET EFFICIENCE

Chair / Président: Jim Hrichishen (Manitoba Finance)

Panelists / Panélistes:
      Douglas Clark (Department of Finance)
      Paul Hobson (Acadia University)
      John Wright (Saskatchewan Government Investments)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 309
POLLUTION CONTROL / CONTRÔLE DE LA POLLUTION

1. Recycling Behaviour of Canadian Households
         Anastasia M. Lintner (Wilfrid Laurier University)
         Bo Wandschneider (University of Guelph)
2. Why Choose Recycled-Content Standards over Taxes in Open Economies with Imperfect Competition?
         Nancy J. Carson (University of British Columbia)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 307
EMPIRICAL PUBLIC FINANCE II / FINANCE PUBLIQUE EMPIRIQUE II

Chair / Président: Peter Townley (Acadia University)

1. Revenue Effects of Tax-Assisted Savings Plans
         G.C. Ruggeri (Department of Finance)
         Maxime Fougère (Department of Finance)
         Timothy C. Sargent (Department of Finance)
2. Self-Employment, Tax Evasion, and the Underground Economy: Micro-Based Estimates for Canada
         Rolf Mirus (University of Alberta)
         Roger S. Smith (University of Alberta)
3. Tax Bases under Various Flat Tax Proposals
         G.C. Ruggeri (Department of Finance)
         Carole Vincent (Department of Finance)
         Maxime Fougère (Department of Finance)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 403
DEBT AND GROWTH / DETTE ET CROISSANCE

Chair / Président: Ron Kneebone (University of Calgary)

1. Testing Ricardian Equivalence with Simulated Series
         Emanuela Cardia (Université de Montréal)
2. Short-Term Aggregate Demand Effects in a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model
         Steven James (Department of Finance)
         Chris Matier (Department of Finance)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Thistle 249
FINANCIAL MARKETS / MARCHÉS FINANCIERS

1. The Risks of Risk Management
         Tim R. Adam (University of Virginia)
2. The Risk Premium Implicit in Currency Options
         Dajiang Guo (University of Guelph)
3. Capital Market in a Reformed Socialist Economy - An Empirical Study of China's Stock Market
         Jixin Xu (Malaspina University College)
         Xijun Chen (Chinese University of Science and Technology)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Taro 207
BEHAVIOUR OVER THE LIFE CYCLE / LE COMPORTEMENT PENDANT LE CYCLE DE VIE

1. Impatience, Vitality and Intertemporal Choices
         Colin E. Preyra (University of Toronto)
2. A Lifestages Hypothesis of Consumption
         Jagdish Handa (McGill University)
3. Income Dynamics in Canada, 1982-92: Evidence from the LAD
         Ross Finnie (Carleton University and Statistics Canada)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Thistle 405
CAPITAL STRUCTURE / STRUCTURE DU CAPITAL

1. Moral Hazard and Optimal Capital Structure
         Greg LeBlanc (Concordia University)
2. Debt Contract Renegotiation and Capital Structure
         Baogui Wang (University of Toronto)
3. Accidents, Limited Liability and Endogenous Capital Structure
         Moin Yahya (University of Toronto)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Thistle 240
CEANA: TRADE POLICIES AND ECONOMIC ISSUES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA / POLITIQUES COMMERCIALES ET STRUCTURES INDUSTRIELLES DES ÉCONOMIES D'ASIE ORIENTALE

Chair / Président: Kenneth S. Chan (McMaster University)

1. China's Rural Industry and Monopsony: An Exploration
         Xiao-yuan Dong (University of Winnipeg)
         Louis Putterman (Brown University)
2. Bias in Trade Policy Regimes: Do Two Wrongs Make a Right?
         R. Harris (Simon Fraser University)
         N. Schmitt (Simon Fraser University)
3. The Tariff Jumping Argument Under Location Theory: Implications for Southeast Asian Economies
         Hong Hwang (National Taiwan University)
         Chao-cheng Mai (National Taiwan University)
4. How Strong is the Preference for Sons in Vietnam? Findings Based on Sequential-Response and Proportional Hazard Models
         H. Nguyen-Dinh (McMaster University)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 10:20 - 11:50, Thistle 307
GENDER, ETHNICITY AND LABOUR MARKETS / SEXES, GROUPES ETHNIQUES ET MARCHÉS DU TRAVAIL

1. Women Workers in the Global Factory: Assessing the Impact of Gender Power Asymmetries on Compensating Differentials and Comparable Worth
         Saud A. Choudhry (Trent University)
2. Labour Market Earnings and Religion in Canada: Further Results
         Ather H. Akbari (Saint Mary's University)
3. The Colour of Money: Earnings Differentials Among Ethnic Groups in Canada
         Krishna Pendakur (Simon Fraser University)
         Ravi Pendakur (Government of Canada)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 12:00 - 1:30, After Hours
CANADIAN WOMEN ECONOMISTS NETWORK LUNCHEON / DÉJEUNER DU RÉSEAU CANADIEN DES FEMMES ÉCONOMISTES/
(Number of places limited to 30 / Pas puls que 30 places disponibles)

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 1:30 - 2:30, Trillium Dining Room
GENERAL MEETING OF THE ASSOCIATION / ASSEMBLÉE GÉNÉRALE DE L'ASSOCIATION

1. ANNOUNCEMENT OF PRIZE WINNERS / ANNONCE DES LAURÉATS DES PRIX SUIVANTS:
   Harry Johnson Prize / Prix Harry Johnson
   John Vanderkamp Prize / Prix John Vanderkamp
2. OTHER ASSOCIATION BUSINESS / AUTRES ITEMS À L'ORDRE DU JOUR DE L'ASSEMBLÉE

SUNDAY JUNE 2 / DIMANCHE 2 JUIN, 2:30 - 4:00, Taro 346
EXECUTIVE COUNCIL MEETING / RÉUNION DU CONSEIL DE DIRECTION